A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model of penaeid (shrimp) distribution on the Australian Great Barrier Reef

A spatially explicit multi-competitor coexistence model was developed for meta-populations of prawns (shrimp) occupying habitat patches across the Great Barrier Reef, where dispersal was localised and dispersal rates varied between species. Prawns were modelled as individuals moving to and from patches or cells according to pre-set decision rules. The landscape was simulated as a matrix of cells with each cell having a spatially explicit survival index for each species. Mixed species prawn assemblages moved over this simplified spatially explicit landscape. A low level of chronic random environmental disturbance was assumed (cyclone and tropical storm damage) with additional acute spatially confined disturbance due to commercial trawling, modelled as an increase in mortality affecting inter-specific competition. The general form of the results was for increased disturbance to favour good-colonising "generalist" species at the expense of good-competitor "specialists". Increasing fishing mortality (local patch extinctions) combined with poor colonising ability resulted in low equilibrium abundance for even the best competitor, while in the same circumstances the poorest competitor but best coloniser could have the highest equilibrium abundance. This mimics the switch from high-value prawn species to lower-value prawn species as trawl effort increases, reflected in historic catch and effort logbook data and reported anecdotaly from the north Queensland trawl fleet. To match the observed distribution and behaviour of prawn assemblages, a combination inter-species competition, a spatially explicit landscape, and a defined pattern of disturbance (trawling) was required. Modelling this combination could simulate not only general trends in spatial distribution of each of prawn species but also localised concentrations observed in the survey data

Identifying major contributing sources to odour annoyance using a non-specific gas sensor array

Identification of major contributors to odour annoyance in areas with multiple emission sources is necessary to address and resolve odour disputes. In an effort to develop an appropriate tool for this task, odour samples were collected on-site at a piggery and an abattoir (the major odour sources in the area) and at surrounding off-site areas, then analysed using a commercial non-specific chemical sensor array to develop an odour fingerprint database. The developed odour fingerprint database was analysed using two pattern recognition algorithms including a partial least squares-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and a Kohonen self-organising map (KSOM). The KSOM model could identify odour samples sourced from the piggery shed 15, piggery pond 8, piggery pond 9, abattoir, motel and others with mean percentage values of 77.5, 65.0, 90.2, 75.7, 44.8 and 64.6%, respectively.

Non-specific conducting polymer-based array capable of monitoring odour emissions from a biofiltration system in a piggery building

A commercial non-specific gas sensor array system was evaluated in terms of its capability to monitor the odour abatement performance of a biofiltration system developed for treating emissions from a commercial piggery building. The biofiltration system was a modular system comprising an inlet ducting system, humidifier and closed-bed biofilter. It also included a gravimetric moisture monitoring and water application system for precise control of moisture content of an organic woodchip medium. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the sensor array measurements indicated that the biofilter outlet air was significantly different to both inlet air of the system and post-humidifier air. Data pre-processing techniques including normalising and outlier handling were applied to improve the odour discrimination performance of the non-specific gas sensor array. To develop an odour quantification model using the sensor array responses of the non-specific sensor array, PCA regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and partial least squares (PLS) modelling techniques were applied. The correlation coefficient (r(2)) values of the PCA, ANN, and PLS models were 0.44, 0.62 and 0.79, respectively.

Antibody Responses to Sarcoptes scabiei Apolipoprotein in a Porcine Model: Relevance to Immunodiagnosis of Recent Infection

No commercial immunodiagnostic tests for human scabies are currently available, and existing animal tests are not sufficiently sensitive. The recombinant Sarcoptes scabiei apolipoprotein antigen Sar s 14.3 is a promising immunodiagnostic, eliciting high levels of IgE and IgG in infected people. Limited data are available regarding the temporal development of antibodies to Sar s 14.3, an issue of relevance in terms of immunodiagnosis. We utilised a porcine model to prospectively compare specific antibody responses to a primary infestation by ELISA, to Sar s 14.3 and to S. scabiei whole mite antigen extract (WMA). Differences in the antibody profile between antigens were apparent, with Sar s 14.3 responses detected earlier, and declining significantly after peak infestation compared to WMA. Both antigens resulted in >90% diagnostic sensitivity from weeks 8–16 post infestation. These data provide important information on the temporal development of humoral immune responses in scabies and further supports the development of recombinant antigen based immunodiagnostic tests for recent scabies infestations.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

Crop design for specific adaptation in variable dryland production environments

Climatic variability in dryland production environments (E) generates variable yield and crop production risks. Optimal combinations of genotype (G) and management (M) depend strongly on E and thus vary among sites and seasons. Traditional crop improvement seeks broadly adapted genotypes to give best average performance under a standard management regime across the entire production region, with some subsequent manipulation of management regionally in response to average local environmental conditions. This process does not search the full spectrum of potential G × M × E combinations forming the adaptation landscape. Here we examine the potential value (relative to the conventional, broad adaptation approach) of exploiting specific adaptation arising from G × M × E. We present an in-silico analysis for sorghum production in Australia using the APSIM sorghum model. Crop design (G × M) is optimised for subsets of locations within the production region (specific adaptation) and is compared with the optimum G across all environments with locally modified M (broad adaptation). We find that geographic subregions that have frequencies of major environment types substantially different from that for the entire production region show greatest advantage for specific adaptation. Although the specific adaptation approach confers yield and production risk advantages at industry scale, even greater benefits should be achievable with better predictors of environment-type likelihood than that conferred by location alone.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.

An improved simulation model to predict pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in maize

Aflatoxin is a potent carcinogen produced by Aspergillus flavus, which frequently contaminates maize (Zea mays L.) in the field between 40° north and 40° south latitudes. A mechanistic model to predict risk of pre-harvest contamination could assist in management of this very harmful mycotoxin. In this study we describe an aflatoxin risk prediction model which is integrated with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) modelling framework. The model computes a temperature function for A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production using a set of three cardinal temperatures determined in the laboratory using culture medium and intact grains. These cardinal temperatures were 11.5 °C as base, 32.5 °C as optimum and 42.5 °C as maximum. The model used a low (≤0.2) crop water supply to demand ratio—an index of drought during the grain filling stage to simulate maize crop's susceptibility to A. flavus growth and aflatoxin production. When this low threshold of the index was reached the model converted the temperature function into an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) to represent the risk of aflatoxin contamination. The model was applied to simulate ARI for two commercial maize hybrids, H513 and H614D, grown in five multi-location field trials in Kenya using site specific agronomy, weather and soil parameters. The observed mean aflatoxin contamination in these trials varied from <1 to 7143 ppb. ARI simulated by the model explained 99% of the variation (p ≤ 0.001) in a linear relationship with the mean observed aflatoxin contamination. The strong relationship between ARI and aflatoxin contamination suggests that the model could be applied to map risk prone areas and to monitor in-season risk for genotypes and soils parameterized for APSIM.