Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Development of cat's claw creeper leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different temperatures: Implications for establishment as a biological control agent in Australia and South Africa

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a native of sub tropical South America, has been introduced as a biological control agent for cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohman (Bignoniaceae), in Australia and South Africa. So far there has been no evidence of its field establishment in either country. A narrow temperature tolerance is a potential limiting factor for the establishment of weed biological control insects in novel habitats. In this study, we evaluated the effect of seven constant temperatures (12–40 °C) on the survival and development of H. pyrochroma in temperature-controlled cabinets. Temperatures between 20 and 30 °C were the most favorable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval and pupal development. Adult survival (12–40 °C) and egg development (15–35 °C) showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges than oviposition, and larval and pupal development, which were all negatively affected by both high (>30 °C) and low (<20 °C) temperatures. The degree-day (DD) requirement to complete a generation was estimated as 877 above a threshold temperature of 12 °C. Based on DD requirements and an obligatory winter diapause of pupae from mid-autumn to mid-spring, the potential number of generations (egg to adult) the leaf-tying moth can complete in a year in Australia or South Africa range from one to three. A climate-matching model predicted that the inland regions of both Australia and South Africa are less favorable for H. pyrochroma than the coastal areas. The study suggested that H. pyrochroma is more likely to establish in the coastal areas of Australia where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations occur, than in South Africa where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations are inland.

Development of cat’s claw creeper leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) at different temperatures: Implications for establishment as a biological control agent in Australia and South Africa

The leaf-tying moth Hypocosmia pyrochroma Jones (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), a native of sub tropical South America, has been introduced as a biological control agent for cat’s claw creeper, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohman (Bignoniaceae), in Australia and South Africa. So far there has been no evidence of its field establishment in either country. A narrow temperature tolerance is a potential limiting factor for the establishment of weed biological control insects in novel habitats. In this study, we evaluated the effect of seven constant temperatures (12–40 °C) on the survival and development of H. pyrochroma in temperature-controlled cabinets. Temperatures between 20 and 30 °C were the most favorable for adult survival, oviposition, egg hatching, and larval and pupal development. Adult survival (12–40 °C) and egg development (15–35 °C) showed tolerance for wider temperature ranges than oviposition, and larval and pupal development, which were all negatively affected by both high (>30 °C) and low (<20 °C) temperatures. The degree-day (DD) requirement to complete a generation was estimated as 877 above a threshold temperature of 12 °C. Based on DD requirements and an obligatory winter diapause of pupae from mid-autumn to mid-spring, the potential number of generations (egg to adult) the leaf-tying moth can complete in a year in Australia or South Africa range from one to three. A climate-matching model predicted that the inland regions of both Australia and South Africa are less favorable for H. pyrochroma than the coastal areas. The study suggested that H. pyrochroma is more likely to establish in the coastal areas of Australia where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations occur, than in South Africa where most of the cat’s claw creeper infestations are inland.

Spatial model of site index based on Y-ray spectrometry and a digital elevation model for two Pinus species in Tuan Toolara State Forest, Queensland, Australia

Site index prediction models are an important aid for forest management and planning activities. This paper introduces a multiple regression model for spatially mapping and comparing site indices for two Pinus species (Pinus elliottii Engelm. and Queensland hybrid, a P. elliottii x Pinus caribaea Morelet hybrid) based on independent variables derived from two major sources: g-ray spectrometry (potassium (K), thorium (Th), and uranium (U)) and a digital elevation model (elevation, slope, curvature, hillshade, flow accumulation, and distance to streams). In addition, interpolated rainfall was tested. Species were coded as a dichotomous dummy variable; interaction effects between species and the g-ray spectrometric and geomorphologic variables were considered. The model explained up to 60% of the variance of site index and the standard error of estimate was 1.9 m. Uranium, elevation, distance to streams, thorium, and flow accumulation significantly correlate to the spatial variation of the site index of both species, and hillshade, curvature, elevation and slope accounted for the extra variability of one species over the other. The predicted site indices varied between 20.0 and 27.3 m for P. elliottii, and between 23.1 and 33.1 m for Queensland hybrid; the advantage of Queensland hybrid over P. elliottii ranged from 1.8 to 6.8 m, with the mean at 4.0 m. This compartment-based prediction and comparison study provides not only an overview of forest productivity of the whole plantation area studied but also a management tool at compartment scale.

Constructing a new individual-based model of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (Rhyzopertha dominica): do we need to include two loci rather than one?

In this article, we describe and compare two individual-based models constructed to investigate how genetic factors influence the development of phosphine resistance in lesser grain borer (R. dominica). One model is based on the simplifying assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at a single locus, while the other is based on the more realistic assumption that resistance is conferred by alleles at two separate loci. We simulated the population dynamic of R. dominica in the absence of phosphine fumigation, and under high and low dose phosphine treatments, and found important differences between the predictions of the two models in all three cases. In the absence of fumigation, starting from the same initial frequencies of genotypes, the two models tended to different stable frequencies, although both reached Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The one-locus model exaggerated the equilibrium proportion of strongly resistant beetles by 3.6 times, compared to the aggregated predictions of the two-locus model. Under a low dose treatment the one-locus model overestimated the proportion of strongly resistant individuals within the population and underestimated the total population numbers compared to the two-locus model. These results show the importance of basing resistance evolution models on realistic genetics and that using oversimplified one-locus models to develop pest control strategies runs the risk of not correctly identifying tactics to minimise the incidence of pest infestation.