Modelling the potential spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) (red imported fire ant) in Australia

Quantifying the potential spread and density of an invading organism enables decision-makers to determine the most appropriate response to incursions. We present two linked models that estimate the spread of Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) in Australia based on limited data gathered after its discovery in Brisbane in 2001. A stochastic cellular automaton determines spread within a location (100 km by 100 km) and this is coupled with a model that simulates human-mediated movement of S. invicta to new locations. In the absence of any control measures, the models predict that S. invicta could cover 763 000–4 066 000 km2 by the year 2035 and be found at 200 separate locations around Australia by 2017–2027, depending on the rate of spread. These estimated rates of expansion (assuming no control efforts were in place) are higher than those experienced in the USA in the 1940s during the early invasion phases in that country. Active control efforts and quarantine controls in the USA (including a concerted eradication attempt in the 1960s) may have slowed spread. Further, milder winters, the presence of the polygynous social form, increased trade and human mobility in Australia in 2000s compared with the USA in 1940s could contribute to faster range expansion.

Weed spread prevention: simple activities for field operations.

This paper discusses how spread of weeds can be minimised by improved knowledge of the weed’s ecology and dispersal, and by better surveillance and treatment methods. Undertaking simple prevention activities reduces the risk of spreading weeds with minimal costs to projects and they noted that field staff and researchers can inadvertently become vectors of weed spread if they do not take adequate precautions. The authors describe several techniques that can be adopted and reference their observations to the eradication program for Siam weed, Chromolaena odorata.

The distribution and spread of citrus canker in Emerald, Australia

Citrus canker is a disease of citrus and closely related species, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri. This disease, previously exotic to Australia, was detected on a single farm [infested premise-1, (IP1). IP is the terminology used in official biosecurity protocols to describe a locality at which an exotic plant pest has been confirmed or is presumed to exist. IP are numbered sequentially as they are detected] in Emerald, Queensland in July 2004. During the following 10 months the disease was subsequently detected on two other farms (IP2 and IP3) within the same area and studies indicated the disease first occurred on IP1 and spread to IP2 and IP3. The oldest, naturally infected plant tissue observed on any of these farms indicated the disease was present on IP1 for several months before detection and established on IP2 and IP3 during the second quarter (i.e. autumn) 2004. Transect studies on some IP1 blocks showed disease incidences ranged between 52 and 100% (trees infected). This contrasted to very low disease incidence, less than 4% of trees within a block, on IP2 and IP3. The mechanisms proposed for disease spread within blocks include weather-assisted dispersal of the bacterium (e.g. wind-driven rain) and movement of contaminated farm equipment, in particular by pivot irrigator towers via mechanical damage in combination with abundant water. Spread between blocks on IP2 was attributed to movement of contaminated farm equipment and/or people. Epidemiology results suggest: (i) successive surveillance rounds increase the likelihood of disease detection; (ii) surveillance sensitivity is affected by tree size; and (iii) individual destruction zones (for the purpose of eradication) could be determined using disease incidence and severity data rather than a predefined set area.

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Diptera: Tephritidae), an invasive fruit fly in Australia that may have reached the extent of its spread due to environmental variables

Bactrocera frauenfeldi (Schiner), the ‘mango fruit fly’, is a horticultural pest originating from the Papua New Guinea region. It was first detected in Australia on Cape York Peninsula in north Queensland in 1974 and had spread to Cairns by 1994 and Townsville by 1997. Bactrocera frauenfeldi has not been recorded further south since then despite its invasive potential, an absence of any controls and an abundance of hosts in southern areas. Analysis of cue-lure trapping data from 1997 to 2012 in relation to environmental variables shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Queensland correlates to locations with a minimum temperature for the coldest month >13.2°C, annual temperature range <19.3°C, mean temperature of the driest quarter >20.2°C, precipitation of the wettest month >268 mm, precipitation of the wettest quarter >697 mm, temperature seasonality <30.9°C (i.e. lower temperature variability) and areas with higher human population per square kilometre. Annual temperature range was the most important variable in predicting this species' distribution. Predictive distribution maps based on an uncorrelated subset of these variables reasonably reflected the current distribution of this species in northern Australia and predicted other areas in the world potentially at risk from invasion by this species. This analysis shows that the distribution of B. frauenfeldi in Australia is correlated to certain environmental variables that have most likely limited this species' spread southward in Queensland. This is of importance to Australian horticulture in demonstrating that B. frauenfeldi is unlikely to establish in horticultural production areas further south than Townsville.

Investigation of an emerging bacterial disease in wild Queensland groper, marine fish and stingrays with production of diagnostic tools to reduce the spread of disease to other states of Australia : final report

This project describes how Streptococcus agalactiae can be transmitted experimentally in Queensland grouper. The implications of this research furthers the relatedness between Australian S. agalactiae strains from animals and humans. Additionally, this research has developed diagnostic tools for Australian State Veterinary Laboratories and Universities, which will assist in State and National aquatic animal disease detection, surveillance, disease monitoring and reporting

Field evaluation of tolerance to Tobacco streak virus in sunflower germplasm, and observations of seasonal disease spread

Strong statistical evidence was found for differences in tolerance to natural infections of Tobacco streak virus (TSV) in sunflower hybrids. Data from 470 plots involving 23 different sunflower hybrids tested in multiple trials over 5 years in Australia were analysed. Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Logistic Regression model for analysis provided: (i) a rigorous method for investigating the relative effects of hybrid, seasonal rainfall and proximity to inoculum source on the incidence of severe TSV disease; (ii) a natural method for estimating the probability distributions of disease incidence in different hybrids under historical rainfall conditions; and (iii) a method for undertaking all pairwise comparisons of disease incidence between hybrids whilst controlling the familywise error rate without any drastic reduction in statistical power. The tolerance identified in field trials was effective against the main TSV strain associated with disease outbreaks, TSV-parthenium. Glasshouse tests indicate this tolerance to also be effective against the other TSV strain found in central Queensland, TSV-crownbeard. The use of tolerant germplasm is critical to minimise the risk of TSV epidemics in sunflower in this region. We found strong statistical evidence that rainfall during the early growing months of March and April had a negative effect on the incidence of severe infection with greatly reduced disease incidence in years that had high rainfall during this period.

Resistance to phosphine in Sitophilus oryzae in Australia: A national analysis of trends and frequencies over time and geographical spread

In Australia, along with many other parts of the world, fumigation with phosphine is a vital component in controlling stored grain insect pests. However, resistance is a factor that may limit the continued efficacy of this fumigant. While strong resistance to phosphine has been identified and characterised, very little information is available on the causes of its development and spread. Data obtained from a unique national resistance monitoring and management program were analysed, using Bayesian hurdle modelling, to determine which factors may be responsible. Fumigation in unsealed storages, combined with a high frequency of weak resistance, were found to be the main criteria that led to the development of strong resistance in Sitophilus oryzae. Independent development, rather than gene flow via migration, appears to be primarily responsible for the geographic incidence of strong resistance to phosphine in S. oryzae. This information can now be utilised to direct resources and education into those areas at high risk and to refine phosphine resistance management strategies.

Preventing weed spread: a survey of lifestyle and commercial landholders about Nassella trichotoma in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales, Australia

Nassella trichotoma (Nees) Hack. ex Arechav. (common name, serrated tussock) occupies large areas of south-eastern Australia and has considerable scope for expansion in the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales. This highly invasive grass reduces pasture productivity and has the potential to severely affect the region’s economy by decreasing the livestock carrying capacity of grazing land. Other potential consequences of this invasion include increased fuel loads and displacement of native plants, thereby threatening biodiversity. Rural property owners in the Northern Tablelands were sent a mail questionnaire that examined use of measures to prevent new outbreaks of the weed. The questionnaire was sent to professional farmers as well as lifestyle farmers (owners of rural residential blocks and hobby farms) and 271 responses were obtained (a response rate of 18%). Key findings were respondents’ limited capacity to detect N. trichotoma, and low adoption of precautions to control seed spread by livestock, vehicles and machinery. This was particularly the case among lifestyle farmers. There have been considerable recent changes to biosecurity governance arrangements in New South Wales, and now is an ideal time for regulators and information providers to consider how to foster regional communities’ engagement in biosecurity, including the adoption of measures that have the capacity to curtail the spread of N. trichotoma.