The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Spatial and temporal variation and effects of changes in management in discard rates from the commercial reef line fishery of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Discarding in commercially exploited fisheries has received considerable attention in the last decade, though only more recently in Australia. The Reef Line fishery (RLF) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia is a large-scale multi-sector, multi-species, highly regulated hook and line fishery with the potential for high levels of discarding. We used a range of data sources to estimate discard rates and discard quantities for the two main target groups of the RLF, the coral trout, Plectropomus spp, and the red throat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus, and investigated possible effects on discarding of recent changes in management of the fishery. Fleet-wide estimates of total annual quantities discarded from 1989 to 2003 were 292-622 t and 33-95 t for coral trout and red throat emperor, respectively. Hypothetical scenarios of high-grading after the introduction of a total allowable commercial catch for coral trout resulted in increases in discard quantities up to 3895 t, while no high-grading still meant 421 t were discarded. Increasing the minimum size limit of red throat emperor from 35 to 38 cm also increased discards to an estimated 103 t. We provide spatially and temporally explicit estimates of discarding for the two most important species in the GBR RLF of Australia to demonstrate the importance of accounting for regional variation in quantification of discarding. Effects of management changes on discarding are also highlighted. This study provides a template for exploring discarding levels for other species in the RLF and elsewhere.