Simulation of the supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of north west Queensland

Sheep in western Queensland have been predominantly reared for wool. When wool prices became depressed interest in the sheep meat industry, increased. For north west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. A simulation model was developed to determine whether this sheep producing area has the capability to provide sufficient numbers of sheep under variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources. Maximum capacity for sustainability of resources (as described by stock numbers) was derived from an in-depth study of the agricultural and pastoral potential of Queensland. Decades of sheep production and climatic data spanning differing seasonal conditions were collated for analysis. A ruminant biology model adapted from Grazplan was used to simulate pregnancy rate. Empirical equations predict mortalities, marking rates, and weight characteristics of sheep of various ages from simple climatic measures, stocking rate and reproductive status. The initial age structure of flocks was determined by running the model for several years with historical climatic conditions. Drought management strategies such as selling a proportion of wethers progressively down to two-tooth and oldest ewes were incorporated. Management decisions such as time of joining, age at which ewes were cast-for-age, wether turn-off age and turning-off rate of lambs vary with geographical area and can be specified at run time. The model is run for sequences of climatic conditions generated stochastically from distributions based on historical climatic data correlated in some instances. The model highlights the difficulties of sustaining a consistent supply of sheep under variable climatic conditions.

Environment characterization as an aid to wheat improvement: interpreting genotype-environment interactions by modelling water-deficit patterns in North-Eastern Australia.

Genotype-environment interactions (GEI) limit genetic gain for complex traits such as tolerance to drought. Characterization of the crop environment is an important step in understanding GEI. A modelling approach is proposed here to characterize broadly (large geographic area, long-term period) and locally (field experiment) drought-related environmental stresses, which enables breeders to analyse their experimental trials with regard to the broad population of environments that they target. Water-deficit patterns experienced by wheat crops were determined for drought-prone north-eastern Australia, using the APSIM crop model to account for the interactions of crops with their environment (e.g. feedback of plant growth on water depletion). Simulations based on more than 100 years of historical climate data were conducted for representative locations, soils, and management systems, for a check cultivar, Hartog. The three main environment types identified differed in their patterns of simulated water stress around flowering and during grain-filling. Over the entire region, the terminal drought-stress pattern was most common (50% of production environments) followed by a flowering stress (24%), although the frequencies of occurrence of the three types varied greatly across regions, years, and management. This environment classification was applied to 16 trials relevant to late stages testing of a breeding programme. The incorporation of the independently-determined environment types in a statistical analysis assisted interpretation of the GEI for yield among the 18 representative genotypes by reducing the relative effect of GEI compared with genotypic variance, and helped to identify opportunities to improve breeding and germplasm-testing strategies for this region.

Adsorption and release of biocides with mesoporous silica nanoparticles

In this proof-of-concept study, an agricultural biocide (imidacloprid) was effectively loaded into the mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSNs) with different pore sizes, morphologies and mesoporous structures for termite control. This resulted in nanoparticles with a large surface area, tunable pore diameter and small particle size, which are ideal carriers for adsorption and controlled release of imidacloprid. The effect of pore size, surface area and mesoporous structure on uptake and release of imidacloprid was systematically studied. It was found that the adsorption amount and release profile of imidacloprid were dependent on the type of mesoporous structure and surface area of particles. Specifically, MCM-48 type mesoporous silica nanoparticles with a three dimensional (3D) open network structure and high surface area displayed the highest adsorption capacity compared to other types of silica nanoparticles. Release of imidacloprid from these nanoparticles was found to be controlled over 48 hours. Finally, in vivo laboratory testing on termite control proved the efficacy of these nanoparticles as delivery carriers for biopesticides. We believe that the present study will contribute to the design of more effective controlled and targeted delivery for other biomolecules.

Is land condition a useful indicator of soil organic carbon stock in Australia?

The grazing lands of northern Australia contain a substantial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock due to the large land area. Manipulating SOC stocks through grazing management has been presented as an option to offset national greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other industries. However, research into the response of SOC stocks to a range of management activities has variously shown positive, negative or negligible change. This uncertainty in predicting change in SOC stocks represents high project risk for government and industry in relation to SOC sequestration programs. In this paper, we seek to address the uncertainty in SOC stock prediction by assessing relationships between SOC stocks and grazing land condition indicators. We reviewed the literature to identify land condition indicators for analysis and tested relationships between identified land condition indicators and SOC stock using data from a paired-site sampling experiment (10 sites). We subsequently collated SOC stock datasets at two scales (quadrat and paddock) from across northern Australia (329 sites) to compare with the findings of the paired-site sampling experiment with the aim of identifying the land condition indicators that had the strongest relationship with SOC stock. The land condition indicators most closely correlated with SOC stocks across datasets and analysis scales were tree basal area, tree canopy cover, ground cover, pasture biomass and the density of perennial grass tussocks. In combination with soil type, these indicators accounted for up to 42% of the variation in the residuals after climate effects were removed. However, we found that responses often interacted with soil type, adding complexity and increasing the uncertainty associated with predicting SOC stock change at any particular location. We recommend that caution be exercised when considering SOC offset projects in northern Australian grazing lands due to the risk of incorrectly predicting changes in SOC stocks with change in land condition indicators and management activities for a particular paddock or property. Despite the uncertainty for generating SOC sequestration income, undertaking management activities to improve land condition is likely to have desirable complementary benefits such as improving productivity and profitability as well as reducing adverse environmental impact.

The genetic structure of Australasian green turtles (Chelonia mydas): Exploring the geographical scale of genetic exchange

Ecological and genetic studies of marine turtles generally support the hypothesis of natal homing, but leave open the question of the geographical scale of genetic exchange and the capacity of turtles to shift breeding sites. Here we combine analyses of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation and recapture data to assess the geographical scale of individual breeding populations and the distribution of such populations through Australasia. We conducted multiscale assessments of mtDNA variation among 714 samples from 27 green turtle rookeries and of adult female dispersal among nesting sites in eastern Australia. Many of these rookeries are on shelves that were flooded by rising sea levels less than 10 000 years (c. 450 generations) ago. Analyses of sequence variation among the mtDNA control region revealed 25 haplotypes, and their frequency distributions indicated 17 genetically distinct breeding stocks (Management Units) consisting either of individual rookeries or groups of rookeries in general that are separated by more than 500 km. The population structure inferred from mtDNA was consistent with the scale of movements observed in long-term mark-recapture studies of east Australian rookeries. Phylogenetic analysis of the haplotypes revealed five clades with significant partitioning of sequence diversity (Φ = 68.4) between Pacific Ocean and Southeast Asian/Indian Ocean rookeries. Isolation by distance was indicated for rookeries separated by up to 2000 km but explained only 12% of the genetic structure. The emerging general picture is one of dynamic population structure influenced by the capacity of females to relocate among proximal breeding sites, although this may be conditional on large population sizes as existed historically across this region.

Estimating crop area using seasonal time series of enhanced vegetation index from MODIS satellite imagery

Cereal grain is one of the main export commodities of Australian agriculture. Over the past decade, crop yield forecasts for wheat and sorghum have shown appreciable utility for industry planning at shire, state, and national scales. There is now an increasing drive from industry for more accurate and cost-effective crop production forecasts. In order to generate production estimates, accurate crop area estimates are needed by the end of the cropping season. Multivariate methods for analysing remotely sensed Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 16-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery within the cropping period (i.e. April-November) were investigated to estimate crop area for wheat, barley, chickpea, and total winter cropped area for a case study region in NE Australia. Each pixel classification method was trained on ground truth data collected from the study region. Three approaches to pixel classification were examined: (i) cluster analysis of trajectories of EVI values from consecutive multi-date imagery during the crop growth period; (ii) harmonic analysis of the time series (HANTS) of the EVI values; and (iii) principal component analysis (PCA) of the time series of EVI values. Images classified using these three approaches were compared with each other, and with a classification based on the single MODIS image taken at peak EVI. Imagery for the 2003 and 2004 seasons was used to assess the ability of the methods to determine wheat, barley, chickpea, and total cropped area estimates. The accuracy at pixel scale was determined by the percent correct classification metric by contrasting all pixel scale samples with independent pixel observations. At a shire level, aggregated total crop area estimates were compared with surveyed estimates. All multi-temporal methods showed significant overall capability to estimate total winter crop area. There was high accuracy at pixel scale (>98% correct classification) for identifying overall winter cropping. However, discrimination among crops was less accurate. Although the use of single-date EVI data produced high accuracy for estimates of wheat area at shire scale, the result contradicted the poor pixel-scale accuracy associated with this approach, due to fortuitous compensating errors. Further studies are needed to extrapolate the multi-temporal approaches to other geographical areas and to improve the lead time for deriving cropped-area estimates before harvest.

Role of Native Fish in Integrated Aquatic Weed and Water Quality Management within the Burdekin Irrigation Area

This report summarises work conducted by the QDPI, in partnership with the South Burdekin Water Board (SBWB) and the Burdekin Shire Council (BSC) between 2001 and 2003. The broad aim of the research was to assess the potential of native fish as biocontrol agents for noxious weeds, as part of an integrated program for managing water quality in the Burdekin Irrigation Area. A series of trials were conducted at, or using water derived from, the Sandy Creek Diversion near Groper Creek (lower Burdekin delta). Trials demonstrated that aquatic weeds play a positive role in trapping transient nutrients, until such time that weed growth becomes self-shading and weed dieback occurs, which releases stored nutrients and adversely affects water quality. Transient nutrient levels (av. TN<0.5mg/L; av. TP<0.1mg/L) found in the irrigation channel during the course of this research were substantially lower than expected, especially considering the intensive agriculture and sewage effluent discharge upstream from the study site. This confirms the need to consider the control of weeds rather than complete weed extermination when formulating management plans. However, even when low nutrient levels are available, there is competitive exploitation of habitat variables in the irrigation area leading to succession and eventual domination by certain weed species. During these trials, we have seen filamentous algae, phytoplankton, hyacinth and curled pondweed each hold competitive advantage at certain points. However without intervention, floating weeds, especially hyacinth, ultimately predominate in the Burdekin delta due to their fast propagation rate and their ability to out-shade submerged plants. We have highlighted the complexity of interactions in these highly disturbed ecosystems in that even if the more prevalent noxious weeds are contained, other weed species will exploit the vacant niche. This complexity places stringent requirements on the type of native fish that can be used as biocontrol agents. Of the seven fish species identified with herbivorous trophic niches, most target plankton or algae and do not have the physical capacity to directly eat the larger macrophytes of the delta. We do find however that following mechanical weed harvesting, inoculative releases of fish can slow the rate of hyacinth recolonisation. This occurs by mechanisms in addition to direct weed consumption, such as disturbing growth surfaces by grazing on attached biofilms. Predation by birds and water rats presents another impediment to the efficacy of large-scale releases of fish. However, alternative uses of fish in water quality management in the Burdekin irrigation area are discussed.

Interactions between a Trawl fishery and spatial closures for biodiversity conservation in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area, Australia.

Background: The Queensland East Coast Otter Trawl Fishery (ECOTF) for penaeid shrimp fishes within Australia's Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). The past decade has seen the implementation of conservation and fisheries management strategies to reduce the impact of the ECOTF on the seabed and improve biodiversity conservation. New information from electronic vessel location monitoring systems (VMS) provides an opportunity to review the interactions between the ECOTF and spatial closures for biodiversity conservation. Methodology and Results: We used fishing metrics and spatial information on the distribution of closures and modelled VMS data in a geographical information system (GIS) to assess change in effort of the trawl fishery from 2001-2009 and to quantify the exposure of 70 reef, non-reef and deep water bioregions to trawl fishing. The number of trawlers and the number of days fished almost halved between 2001 and 2009 and new spatial closures introduced in 2004 reduced the area zoned available for trawl fishing by 33%. However, we found that there was only a relatively minor change in the spatial footprint of the fishery as a result of new spatial closures. Non-reef bioregions benefited the most from new spatial closures followed by deep and reef bioregions. Conclusions/Significance: Although the catch of non target species remains an issue of concern for fisheries management, the small spatial footprint of the ECOTF relative to the size of the GBRWHA means that the impact on benthic habitats is likely to be negligible. The decline in effort as a result of fishing industry structural adjustment, increasing variable costs and business decisions of fishers is likely to continue a trend to fish only in the most productive areas. This will provide protection for most benthic habitats without any further legislative or management intervention.

Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery.

The wheat grain industry is Australia's second largest agricultural export commodity. There is an increasing demand for accurate, objective and near real-time crop production information by industry. The advent of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite platform has augmented the capability of satellite-based applications to capture reflectance over large areas at acceptable pixel scale, cost and accuracy. The use of multi-temporal MODIS-enhanced vegetation index (EVI) imagery to determine crop area was investigated in this article. Here the rigour of the harmonic analysis of time-series (HANTS) and early-season metric approaches was assessed when extrapolating over the entire Queensland (QLD) cropping region for the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Early-season crop area estimates, at least 4 months before harvest, produced high accuracy at pixel and regional scales with percent errors of -8.6% and -26% for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, respectively. In discriminating among crops at pixel and regional scale, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy. The errors for specific area estimates for wheat, barley and chickpea were 9.9%, -5.2% and 10.9% (for 2005) and -2.8%, -78% and 64% (for 2006), respectively. Area estimates of total winter crop, wheat, barley and chickpea resulted in coefficient of determination (R(2)) values of 0.92, 0.89, 0.82 and 0.52, when contrasted against the actual shire-scale data. A significantly high coefficient of determination (0.87) was achieved for total winter crop area estimates in August across all shires for the 2006 season. Furthermore, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy in discriminating cropping area from non-cropping area and highlighted the need for accurate and up-to-date land use maps. The extrapolability of these approaches to determine total and specific winter crop area estimates, well before flowering, showed good utility across larger areas and seasons. Hence, it is envisaged that this technology might be transferable to different regions across Australia.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt – spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Large-scale expansion of no-take closures within the Great Barrier Reef has not enhanced fishery production

A rare opportunity to test hypotheses about potential fishery benefits of large-scale closures was initiated in July 2004 when an additional 28.4% of the 348 000 km2 Great Barrier Reef (GBR) region of Queensland, Australia was closed to all fishing. Advice to the Australian and Queensland governments that supported this initiative predicted these additional closures would generate minimal (10%) initial reductions in both catch and landed value within the GBR area, with recovery of catches becoming apparent after three years. To test these predictions, commercial fisheries data from the GBR area and from the two adjacent (non-GBR) areas of Queensland were compared for the periods immediately before and after the closures were implemented. The observed means for total annual catch and value within the GBR declined from pre-closure (2000–2003) levels of 12 780 Mg and Australian $160 million, to initial post-closure (2005–2008) levels of 8143 Mg and $102 million; decreases of 35% and 36% respectively. Because the reference areas in the non-GBR had minimal changes in catch and value, the beyond-BACI (before, after, control, impact) analyses estimated initial net reductions within the GBR of 35% for both total catch and value. There was no evidence of recovery in total catch levels or any comparative improvement in catch rates within the GBR nine years after implementation. These results are not consistent with the advice to governments that the closures would have minimal initial impacts and rapidly generate benefits to fisheries in the GBR through increased juvenile recruitment and adult spillovers. Instead, the absence of evidence of recovery in catches to date currently supports an alternative hypothesis that where there is already effective fisheries management, the closing of areas to all fishing will generate reductions in overall catches similar to the percentage of the fished area that is closed.