19 resultados para intra prediction

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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BACKGROUND: The inability to consistently guarantee internal quality of horticulture produce is of major importance to the primary producer, marketers and ultimately the consumer. Currently, commercial avocado maturity estimation is based on the destructive assessment of percentage dry matter (%DM), and sometimes percentage oil, both of which are highly correlated with maturity. In this study the utility of Fourier transform (FT) near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated for the first time as a non-invasive technique for estimating %DM of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares regression models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict %DM, taking into account effects of intra-seasonal variation and orchard conditions. RESULTS: It was found that combining three harvests (early, mid and late) from a single farm in the major production district of central Queensland yielded a predictive model for %DM with a coefficient of determination for the validation set of 0.76 and a root mean square error of prediction of 1.53% for DM in the range 19.4-34.2%. CONCLUSION: The results of the study indicate the potential of FT-NIRS in diffuse reflectance mode to non-invasively predict %DM of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit. When the FT-NIRS system was assessed on whole avocados, the results compared favourably against data from other NIRS systems identified in the literature that have been used in research applications on avocados.

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The Brix content of pineapple fruit can be non-invasively predicted from the second derivative of near infrared reflectance spectra. Correlations obtained using a NIRSystems 6500 spectrophotometer through multiple linear regression and modified partial least squares analyses using a post-dispersive configuration were comparable with that from a pre-dispersive configuration in terms of accuracy (e.g. coefficient of determination, R2, 0.73; standard error of cross validation, SECV, 1.01°Brix). The effective depth of sample assessed was slightly greater using the post-dispersive technique (about 20 mm for pineapple fruit), as expected in relation to the higher incident light intensity, relative to the pre-dispersive configuration. The effect of such environmental variables as temperature, humidity and external light, and instrumental variables such as the number of scans averaged to form a spectrum, were considered with respect to the accuracy and precision of the measurement of absorbance at 876 nm, as a key term in the calibration for Brix, and predicted Brix. The application of post-dispersive near infrared technology to in-line assessment of intact fruit in a packing shed environment is discussed.

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Traps baited with synthetic aggregation pheromone and fermenting bread dough were used to monitor seasonal incidence and abundance of the ripening fruit pests, Carpophilus hemipterus (L.), C. mutilatus Erichson and C. davidsoni Dobson in stone fruit orchards in the Leeton district of southern New South Wales during five seasons (1991-96). Adult beetles were trapped from September-May, but abundance varied considerably between years with the amount of rainfall in December-January having a major influence on population size and damage potential during the canning peach harvest (late February-March). Below average rainfall in December-January was associated with mean trap catches of < 10 beetles/trap/week in low dose pheromone traps during the harvest period in 1991/92 and 1993/94 and no reported damage to ripening fruit. Rainfall in December-January 1992/93 was more than double the average and mean trap catches ranged from 8-27 beetles/week during the harvest period with substantial damage to the peach crop. December-January rainfall was also above average in 1994/95 and 1995/96 and means of 50-300 beetles/trap/week were recorded in high dose pheromone traps during harvest periods. Carpophilus spp. caused economic damage to peach crops in both seasons. These data indicate that it may be possible to predict the likelihood of Carpophilus beetle damage to ripening stone fruit in inland areas of southern Australia, by routine pheromone-based monitoring of beetle populations and summer temperatures and rainfall.

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Detailed data on seagrass distribution, abundance, growth rates and community structure information were collected at Orman Reefs in March 2004 to estimate the above-ground productivity and carbon assimilated by seagrass meadows. Seagrass meadows were re-examined in November 2004 for comparison at the seasonal extremes of seagrass abundance. Ten seagrass species were identified in the meadows on Orman Reefs. Extensive seagrass coverage was found in March (18,700 ha) and November (21,600 ha), with seagrass covering the majority of the intertidal reef-top areas and a large proportion of the subtidal areas examined. There were marked differences in seagrass above-ground biomass, distribution and species composition between the two surveys. Major changes between March and November included a substantial decline in biomass for intertidal meadows and an expansion in area of subtidal meadows. Changes were most likely a result of greater tidal exposure of intertidal meadows prior to November leading to desiccation and temperature-related stress. The Orman Reef seagrass meadows had a total above-ground productivity of 259.8 t DW day-1 and estimated carbon assimilation of 89.4 t C day-1 in March. The majority of this production came from the intertidal meadows which accounted for 81% of the total production. Intra-annual changes in seagrass species composition, shoot density and size of meadows measured in this study were likely to have a strong influence on the total above-ground production during the year. The net estimated above-ground productivity of Orman Reefs meadows in March 2004 (1.19 g C m-2 day-1) was high compared with other tropical seagrass areas that have been studied and also higher than many other marine, estuarine and terrestrial plant communities.

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Near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be used for the on-line, non-invasive assessment of fruit for eating quality attributes such as total soluble solids (TSS). The robustness of multivariate calibration models, based on NIRS in a partial transmittance optical geometry, for the assessment of TSS of intact rockmelons (Cucumis melo) was assessed. The mesocarp TSS was highest around the fruit equator and increased towards the seed cavity. Inner mesocarp TSS levels decreased towards both the proximal and distal ends of the fruit, but more so towards the proximal end. The equatorial region of the fruit was chosen as representative of the fruit for near infrared assessment of TSS. The spectral window for model development was optimised at 695-1045 nm, and the data pre-treatment procedure was optimised to second-derivative absorbance without scatter correction. The 'global' modified partial least squares (MPLS) regression modelling procedure of WINISI (ver. 1.04) was found to be superior with respect to root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) and bias for model predictions of TSS across seasons, compared with the 'local' MPLS regression procedure. Updating of the model with samples selected randomly from the independent validation population demonstrated improvement in both RMSEP and bias with addition of approximately 15 samples.

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High-resolution melt-curve analysis of random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD-HRM) is a novel technology that has emerged as a possible method to characterise leptospires to serovar level. RAPD-HRM has recently been used to measure intra-serovar convergence between strains of the same serovar as well as inter-serovar divergence between strains of different serovars. The results indicate that intra-serovar heterogeneity and inter-serovar homogeneity may limit the application of RAPD-HRM in routine diagnostics. They also indicate that genetic attenuation of aged, high-passage-number isolates could undermine the use of RAPD-HRM or any other molecular technology. Such genetic attenuation may account for a general decrease seen in titres of rabbit hyperimmune antibodies over time. Before RAPD-HRM can be further advanced as a routine diagnostic tool, strains more representative of the wild-type serovars of a given region need to be identified. Further, RAPD-HRM analysis of reference strains indicates that the routine renewal of reference collections, with new isolates, may be needed to maintain the genetic integrity of the collections.

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Acidity in terms of pH and titratable acids influences the texture and flavour of fermented dairy products, such as Kefir. However, the methods for determining pH and titratable acidity (TA) are time consuming. Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a non-destructive method, which simultaneously predicts multiple traits from a single scan and can be used to predict pH and TA. The best pH NIR calibration model was obtained with no spectral pre-treatment applied, whereas smoothing was found to be the best pre-treatment to develop the TA calibration model. Using cross-validation, the prediction results were found acceptable for both pH and TA. With external validation, similar results were found for pH and TA, and both models were found to be acceptable for screening purposes.

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Khaya senegalensis (African mahogany or dry-zone mahogany) is a high-value hardwood timber species with great potential for forest plantations in northern Australia. The species is distributed across the sub-Saharan belt from Senegal to Sudan and Uganda. Because of heavy exploitation and constraints on natural regeneration and sustainable planting, it is now classified as a vulnerable species. Here, we describe the development of microsatellite markers for K. senegalensis using next-generation sequencing to assess its intra-specific diversity across its natural range, which is a key for successful breeding programs and effective conservation management of the species. Next-generation sequencing yielded 93943 sequences with an average read length of 234bp. The assembled sequences contained 1030 simple sequence repeats, with primers designed for 522 microsatellite loci. Twenty-one microsatellite loci were tested with 11 showing reliable amplification and polymorphism in K. senegalensis. The 11 novel microsatellites, together with one previously published, were used to assess 73 accessions belonging to the Australian K. senegalensis domestication program, sampled from across the natural range of the species. STRUCTURE analysis shows two major clusters, one comprising mainly accessions from west Africa (Senegal to Benin) and the second based in the far eastern limits of the range in Sudan and Uganda. Higher levels of genetic diversity were found in material from western Africa. This suggests that new seed collections from this region may yield more diverse genotypes than those originating from Sudan and Uganda in eastern Africa.

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Using caged guava trees in Queensland, Australia, provided with food and oviposition sites, the foraging behaviour of females of the tephritid Bactrocera tryoni was investigated in relation to hunger for protein, the presence or absence of bacteria as a source of protein, the degree of prior experience with host fruit and quality of host fruit for oviposition. One aim was to evaluate whether it is immature or mature B. tryoni females that are responsible for initially inoculating host fruit surfaces with "fruit-fly-type" bacteria, the odour of which is known to attract B. tryoni females. Three-week-old immature females provided with sucrose but deprived of protein from eclosion had a much greater propensity than 3-week-old protein-fed mature females to visit vials containing fruit-fly-type bacteria, irrespective of whether vials were associated with adjacent host fruit or not. In the absence of associated bacteria in vials, immature females had a much lower propensity than mature females to visit host fruit. In the presence of bacteria in vials, however, propensity of immature and mature females to visit fruit was about equal. Mature (but not immature) females were more inclined to visit fruit that ranked higher for oviposition (nectarines) than fruit that ranked lower (sweet oranges). Mature females that attempted oviposition during a single 3-min exposure period to a nectarine prior to release were much more likely to find a nectarine than were mature females naive to fruit or immature females with or without prior contact with fruit. Exposure to a nectarine before release did not affect the propensity of either mature or immature females to alight on an odourless visual model of a nectarine, however. As judged by numbers of leaves visited, protein-deprived immature females were more active than protein-fed mature females, irrespective of the sorts of resources on a tree. It was concluded that: the 1st B. tryoni females to arrive on the fruit of a host tree and therefore inoculate the fruit with fruit-fly-type bacteria were unlikely to be sexually immature, but to be mature as a result of having earlier acquired protein elsewhere; the odour of colonies of fruit-fly-type bacteria when associated with host fruit attracted protein-hungry but not protein-fed females; and the odour of the fruit itself attracted mature females (especially experienced ones) but not immature females.

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The aim of this study was to investigate the effects on follicle stimulating hormone (FSH) secretion and dominant follicle (OF) growth, of treatment of Bos indicus heifers with different combinations of intra-vaginal progesterone releasing devices (IPRD), oestradiol benzoate (ODB), PGF(2 alpha), and eCG. Two-year-old Brahman (BN; n=30) and Brahman-cross (BNX; n=34) heifers were randomly allocated to three IPRD-treatments: (i) standard-dose IPRD [CM 1.56 g; 1.56 g progesterone (P-4); n = 17]; (ii) half-dose IPRD (CM 0.78 g; 0.78 g p(4); n=15); (iii) half-dose IPRD + 300 IU eCG at IPRD removal (CM 0.78 g+G; n=14); and, (iv) non-IPRD control (2 x PGF(2 alpha); n=18) 500 mu g cloprostenol on Days -16 and -2. IPRD-treated heifers received 250 mu g PGF(2 alpha) at IPRD insertion (Day 10) and IPRD removal (Day -2) and 1 mg ODB on Day -10 and Day -1. Follicular dynamics were monitored daily by trans-rectal ultrasonography from Day -10 to Day 1. Blood samples for determination of P-4 were collected daily and samples for FSH determination were collected at 12 h intervals from Day -9 to Day -2. A significant surge in concentrations of FSH was observed in the 2 x PGF(2 alpha), treatment 12 h prior and 48 h after follicular wave emergence, but not in the IPRD-treated heifers. Estimated mean concentrations of total plasma P-4 during the 8 days of IPRD insertion was greater (P<0.001) in the CM 1.56 g P-4 treated heifers compared to the CM 0.78 g P-4 treated heifers (18.38 ng/ml compared with 11.09 ng/ml, respectively). A treatment by genotype interaction (P=0.036) was observed in the mean plasma P4 concentration in heifers with no CL during IPRD insertion, whereby BN heifers in the CM 1.56 g treatment had greater plasma P-4 than the BNX heifers on Days-9, -7, -6, -5, and -4. However, there was no genotype effect in the CM 0.78 g +/- G or the 2 x PGF(2 alpha) treatment. Treatment had no effect on the DF growth from either day of wave emergence (P=0.378) or day of IPRD removal (P=0.780) to ovulation. This study demonstrates that FSH secretion in B. indicus heifers treated with a combination of IPRD's and ODB to synchronise ovulation was suppressed during the period of IPRD insertion but no significant effect on growth of the DF was observed. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.

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Fourier Transform (FT)-near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated as a non-invasive technique for estimating percentage (%) dry matter of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares (PLS) calibration models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict % dry matter, taking into account effects of seasonal variation. It is found that seasonal variability has a significant effect on model predictive performance for dry matter in avocados. The robustness of the calibration model, which in general limits the application for the technique, was found to increase across years (seasons) when more seasonal variability was included in the calibration set. The R-v(2) and RMSEP for the single season prediction models predicting on an independent season ranged from 0.09 to 0.61 and 2.63 to 5.00, respectively, while for the two season models predicting on the third independent season, they ranged from 0.34 to 0.79 and 2.18 to 2.50, respectively. The bias for single season models predicting an independent season was as high as 4.429 but <= 1.417 for the two season combined models. The calibration model encompassing fruit from three consecutive years yielded predictive statistics of R-v(2) = 0.89, RMSEP = 1.43% dry matter with a bias of -0.021 in the range 16.1-39.7% dry matter for the validation population encompassing independent fruit from the three consecutive years. Relevant spectral information for all calibration models was obtained primarily from oil, carbohydrate and water absorbance bands clustered in the 890-980, 1005-1050, 1330-1380 and 1700-1790 nm regions. These results indicate the potential of FT-NIRS, in diffuse reflectance mode, to non-invasively predict the % dry matter of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit and the importance of the development of a calibration model that incorporates seasonal variation. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.

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In current simulation packages for the management of extensive beef-cattle enterprises, the relationships for the key biological rates (namely conception and mortality) are quite rudimentary. To better estimate these relationships, cohort-level data covering 17 100 cow-years from six sites across northern Australia were collated and analysed. Further validation data, from 7200 cow-years, were then used to test these relationships. Analytical problems included incomplete and non-standardised data, considerable levels of correlation among the 'independent' variables, and the close similarity of alternate possible models. In addition to formal statistical analyses of these data, the theoretical equations for predicting mortality and conception rates in the current simulation models were reviewed, and then reparameterised and recalibrated where appropriate. The final models explained up to 80% of the variation in the data. These are now proposed as more accurate and useful models to be used in the prediction of biological rates in simulation studies for northern Australia. © The State of Queensland (through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry) 2012. © CSIRO.

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Odour from meat chicken (broiler) farms is an environmental issue affecting the sustainable development of the chicken meat industry but is a normal part of broiler production. Odour plumes exhausted from broiler sheds interact with the environment, where dispersion and dilution of the odours varies constantly, especially diurnally. The potential for odour impacts is greatest when odour emission rates are high and/or when atmospheric dispersion and dilution of odour plumes is limited (i.e. during stable conditions). We continuously monitored ventilation rate, on-site weather conditions, atmospheric stability, and estimated odour concentration with an artificial olfaction system. Detailed inspection of odour emission rates at critical times, i.e. dawn, dusk and night time, revealed that maximum daily and batch odour emission rates are not necessarily the cause of odour impacts. Periods of lower odour emission rates on each day are more likely to correspond with odour impacts. Odour emission rates need to be measured at the times when odour impacts are most likely to occur, which is likely to be at night. Additionally, high resolution ventilation rate data should be sought after to improve odour emission models, especially at critical times of the day. Consultants, regulators and researchers need to give more thought to odour emission rates from meat chicken farms to improved prediction and management of odour impacts.