Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Germination Biology and Occurrence of Polyembryony in Two Forms of Cats Claw Creeper Vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae): Implications for Its Invasiveness and Management

Cat’s claw creeper vine, Dolichandra unguis-cati (L.) Lohmann (syn. Macfadyena unguis-cati (L.) Gentry), is a major environmental weed in Australia. Two forms of the weed with distinctive leaf morphology and reproductive traits, including varying fruit size, occur in Queensland, Australia. The long pod form occurs in a few localities in Queensland, while the short pod form is widely distributed in Queensland and northern part of New South Wales. This investigation aimed to evaluate germination behavior and occurrence of polyembryony (production of multiple seedlings from a single seed) in the two forms of the weed. Seeds were germinated in growth chambers set to 10/20°C, 15/25°C, 20/30°C, 30/45°C and 25°C, representing ambient temperature conditions of the region. Germination and polyembryony were monitored over a period of 12 weeks. For all the treatments in this study, seeds from short pod plants exhibited significantly higher germination rates and higher occurrence of polyembryony than those from long pod plants. Seeds from long pod plants did not germinate at the lowest temperature of 10/20°C; in contrast, those of the short pod form germinated under this condition, albeit at a lower rate (reaching a maximum 45% germination at week 12). Results from this study could explain why the short pod form of D. unguis-cati is the more widely distributed plants in Australia, while the long pod is confined to a few localities. The results have implication in predicting future range of both forms of the invasive D. unguis-cati, as well as inform management decisions for control of the weed.