Evidence of package trading in a mature multi-species ITQ market

In multi-species fisheries managed under ITQs, the existence of joint production may lead to complex catch-quota balancing issues. Previous modelling and experimental research suggest that, in such fisheries, some fishers may benefit from the ability to trade packages of fishing quotas, rather than fulfil their quota needs by simultaneously bidding on separate single-species quota markets. This note presents evidence of naturally occurring package trades in a real fishery. Based on this evidence, we suggest that further empirical and modelling research is required on the potential and limitations of package quota trading in mixed fisheries managed with ITQs. © 2014.

Risk-based surveillance for avian influenza control along poultry market chains in South China: The value of social network analysis.

Over the past two decades, the poultry sector in China went through a phase of tremendous growth as well as rapid intensification and concentration. Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 was first detected in 1996 in Guangdong province, South China and started spreading throughout Asia in early 2004. Since then, control of the disease in China has relied heavily on wide-scale preventive vaccination combined with movement control, quarantine and stamping out. This strategy has been successful in drastically reducing the number of outbreaks during the past 5 years. However, HPAIV H5N1 is still circulating and is regularly isolated in traditional live bird markets (LBMs) where viral infection can persist, which represent a public health hazard for people visiting them. The use of social network analysis in combination with epidemiological surveillance in South China has identified areas where the success of current strategies for HPAI control in the poultry production sector may benefit from better knowledge of poultry trading patterns and the LBM network configuration as well as their capacity for maintaining HPAIV H5N1 infection. We produced a set of LBM network maps and estimated the associated risk of HPAIV H5N1 within LBMs and along poultry market chains, providing new insights into how live poultry trade and infection are intertwined. More specifically, our study provides evidence that several biosecurity factors such as daily cage cleaning, daily cage disinfection or manure processing contribute to a reduction in HPAIV H5N1 presence in LBMs. Of significant importance is that the results of our study also show the association between social network indicators and the presence of HPAIV H5N1 in specific network configurations such as the one represented by the counties of origin of the birds traded in LBMs. This new information could be used to develop more targeted and effective control interventions.

Choosing a fishery's governance structure using data poor methods

Multi-species fisheries are complex to manage and the ability to develop an appropriate governance structure is often seriously impeded because trading between sustainability objectives at the species level, economic objectives at the fleet level, and social objectives at the community scale, is complex. Many of these fisheries also tend to have a mix of information, with stock assessments available for some species and almost no information on other species. The fleets themselves comprise fishers from small family enterprises to large vertically integrated businesses. The Queensland trawl fishery in Australia is used as a case study for this kind of fishery. It has the added complexity that a large part of the fishery is within a World Heritage Area, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, which is managed by an agency of the Australian Commonwealth Government whereas the fishery itself is managed by the Queensland State Government. A stakeholder elicitation process was used to develop social, governance, economic and ecological objectives, and then weight the relative importance of these. An expert group was used to develop different governance strawmen (or management strategies) and these were assessed by a group of industry stakeholders and experts using multi-criteria decision analysis techniques against the different objectives. One strawman clearly provided the best overall set of outcomes given the multiple objectives, but was not optimal in terms of every objective, demonstrating that even the "best" strawman may be less than perfect. © 2012.

APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics.

Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.

Evaluation of tomato production systems at Bowen in mitigating the risk of fruit fly infestation: a systems approach for market access

Queensland fruit flies Bactrocera tryoni and B. neohumeralis are considered major quarantine pests of tomato, a major crop in the horticultural production district around Bowen, North Queensland, Australia. Preharvest and/or postharvest treatments are required to meet the market access requirements of both domestic and international trading partners. The suspension from use of dimethoate and fenthion, the two insecticides used for fruit fly control, has resulted in the loss of both pre and postharvest uses in fresh tomato. Research undertaken quantitatively at Bowen evaluated the effectiveness of pre-harvest production systems without specific fruit fly controls and postharvest mitigation measures in reducing the risk of fruit fly infestation in tomato. A district-wide trapping using cue-lure baited traps was undertaken to determine fruit fly seasonal patterns in relation to the cropping seasons. A total of 17,626 field-harvested and 11,755 pack-house tomatoes were sampled from ten farms over three cropping seasons (2006-2009). The fruit were incubated and examined for fruit fly infestation. No fruit fly infested fruit were recorded over the three seasons in either the field or the pack-house samples. Statistical analyses showed that upper infestation levels were extremely low (between 0.025 and 0.062%) at the 95% confidence level. The trap catches showed a seasonal pattern in fruit fly activity, with low numbers during the autumn and winter months, rising slightly in spring and peaking in summer. This seasonal pattern was similar over the four seasons. The main two species of fruit fly caught were B. tryoni and B. neohumeralis. Based on the results, it is clear that the risk of fruit fly infestation is extremely low under the current production systems in the Bowen region.