Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Projecting future expansion of invasive species: Comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling

Modeling the distributions of species, especially of invasive species in non-native ranges, involves multiple challenges. Here, we developed some novel approaches to species distribution modeling aimed at reducing the influences of such challenges and improving the realism of projections. We estimated species-environment relationships with four modeling methods run with multiple scenarios of (1) sources of occurrences and geographically isolated background ranges for absences, (2) approaches to drawing background (absence) points, and (3) alternate sets of predictor variables. We further tested various quantitative metrics of model evaluation against biological insight. Model projections were very sensitive to the choice of training dataset. Model accuracy was much improved by using a global dataset for model training, rather than restricting data input to the species’ native range. AUC score was a poor metric for model evaluation and, if used alone, was not a useful criterion for assessing model performance. Projections away from the sampled space (i.e. into areas of potential future invasion) were very different depending on the modeling methods used, raising questions about the reliability of ensemble projections. Generalized linear models gave very unrealistic projections far away from the training region. Models that efficiently fit the dominant pattern, but exclude highly local patterns in the dataset and capture interactions as they appear in data (e.g. boosted regression trees), improved generalization of the models. Biological knowledge of the species and its distribution was important in refining choices about the best set of projections. A post-hoc test conducted on a new Partenium dataset from Nepal validated excellent predictive performance of our “best” model. We showed that vast stretches of currently uninvaded geographic areas on multiple continents harbor highly suitable habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae; parthenium). However, discrepancies between model predictions and parthenium invasion in Australia indicate successful management for this globally significant weed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

In Vitro Conditions for a Successful Biolistics transformation System of Pineapples (ananas comosus merr.), in 'Contributing to a Sustainable Future'

In order to develop an efficient and reliable biolistics transformation system for pineapples parameters need to be optimised for growth, survival and development of explants pre- and post transformation. We have optimised in vitro conditions for culture media for the various stages of plant and callus initiation and development, and for effective selection of putative transgenic material. Shoot multiplication and proliferation is best on medium containing MS basic nutrients and vitamins with the addition of 0.1 mg/L myo-inositol, 20 g/L sucrose, 2.5 mg/L BAP and 3 g/L Phytagel, followed by transfer to basic MS medium for further development. Callus production on leaf base explants is best on MS nutrients and vitamins, to which 10 mg/L of BAP and NAA each was added. Optimum explant age for bombardment is 17-35 week old callus, while a pre-bombardment osmoticum treatment in the medium is not required. By comparing several antibiotics as selective agent, it has been established that a two-step selection of 2 fortnightly sub-cultures on 50 μg/mL of geneticin in the culture medium, followed by monthly sub-cultures on 100 μg/mL geneticin is optimal for survival of transgenic callus. Shoot regeneration from callus cultures is optimal on medium containing MS nutrients and vitamins, 5% coconut water and 400 mg/L casein hydrolysate. Plants can be readily regenerated and multiplied from transgenic callus through organogenesis. Rooting of shoots does not require any additional plant hormones to the medium. A transformation efficiency of 1 – 3.5% can be achieved, depending on the gene construct applied.

The Introduction of Transgenes to Control Blackheart in Pineapple: Biolistics Vs Agrobacterium Transformation, in 'Contributing to a Sustainable Future'

Techniques for the introduction of transgenes to control blackheart by particle bombardment and Agrobacterium co-transformation have been developed for pineapple cv. Smooth Cayenne. Polyphenol oxidase (PPO) is the enzyme responsible for blackheart development in pineapple fruit following chilling injury. Sense, anti-sense and hairpin constructs were used as a means to suppress PPO expression in plants. Average transformation efficiency for biolistics was approximately 1% and for Agrobacterium was approximately 1.5%. These results were considered acceptable given the high regeneration potential of between 80-90% from callus cultures. Southern blot analysis revealed stable integration of transgenes with lower copy number found in plants transformed with Agrobacterium compared to those transformed by biolistics. Over 5000 plants from 55 transgenic lines are now undergoing field evaluation in Australia

Mango anthracnose disease: Present status and future research priorities

Occurrence and Importance: Anthracnose is presently recognized as the most important field and post-harvest disease of mango worldwide (Ploetz and Prakasli, 1997). It is the major disease limiting fruit production in all countries where mangoes are grown, especially where high humidity prevails during the cropping season. The post-harvest phase is the most damaging and economically significant phase of the disease worldwide. It directly affects the marketable fruit rendering it worthless. This phase is directly linked to the field phase where initial infection usually starts on young twigs and leaves and spreads to the flowers, causing blossom blight and destroying the inflorescences and even preventing fruit set.

Rice molecular breeding laboratories in the genomics era: Current status and future considerations

Using DNA markers in plant breeding with marker-assisted selection (MAS) could greatly improve the precision and efficiency of selection, leading to the accelerated development of new crop varieties. The numerous examples of MAS in rice have prompted many breeding institutes to establish molecular breeding labs. The last decade has produced an enormous amount of genomics research in rice, including the identification of thousands of QTLs for agronomically important traits, the generation of large amounts of gene expression data, and cloning and characterization of new genes, including the detection of single nucleotide polymorphisms. The pinnacle of genomics research has been the completion and annotation of genome sequences for indica and japonica rice. This information-coupled with the development of new genotyping methodologies and platforms, and the development of bioinformatics databases and software tools-provides even more exciting opportunities for rice molecular breeding in the 21st century. However, the great challenge for molecular breeders is to apply genomics data in actual breeding programs. Here, we review the current status of MAS in rice, current genomics projects and promising new genotyping methodologies, and evaluate the probable impact of genomics research. We also identify critical research areas to "bridge the application gap" between QTL identification and applied breeding that need to be addressed to realize the full potential of MAS, and propose ideas and guidelines for establishing rice molecular breeding labs in the postgenome sequence era to integrate molecular breeding within the context of overall rice breeding and research programs.

An overview of integrated pest management (IPM) in north-eastern Australian grain farming systems: Past, present and future prospects

The authors overview integrated pest management (IPM) in grain crops in north-eastern Australia, which is defined as the area north of latitude 32°S. Major grain crops in this region include the coarse grains (winter and summer cereals), oilseeds and pulses. IPM in these systems is complicated by the diversity of crops, pests, market requirements and cropping environments. In general, the pulse crops are at greatest risk, followed by oilseeds and then by cereal grains. Insecticides remain a key grain pest management tool in north-eastern Australia. IPM in grain crops has benefited considerably through the increased adoption of new, more selective insecticides and biopesticides for many caterpillar pests, in particular Helicoverpa spp. and loopers, and the identification of pest-crop scenarios where spraying is unnecessary (e.g. for most Creontiades spp. populations in soybeans). This has favoured the conservation of natural enemies in north-eastern Australia grain crops, and has arguably assisted in the management of silverleaf whitefly in soybeans in coastal Queensland. However, control of sucking pests and podborers such as Maruca vitrata remains a major challenge for IPM in summer pulses. Because these crops have very low pest-damage tolerances and thresholds, intervention with disruptive insecticides is frequently required, particularly during podfill. The threat posed by silverleaf whitefly demands ongoing multi-pest IPM research, development and extension as this pest can flare under favourable seasonal conditions, especially where disruptive insecticides are used injudiciously. The strong links between researchers and industry have facilitated the adoption of IPM practices in north-eastern Australia and augers well for future pest challenges and for the development and promotion of new and improved IPM tactics.

Insecticide resistance and implications for future aphid management in Australian grains and pastures: A review

Aphids can cause substantial damage to cereals, oilseeds and legumes through direct feeding and through the transmission of plant pathogenic viruses. Aphid-resistant varieties are only available for a limited number of crops. In Australia, growers often use prophylactic sprays to control aphids, but this strategy can lead to non-target effects and the development of insecticide resistance. Insecticide resistance is a problem in one aphid pest of Australian grains in Australia, the green peach aphid (Myzus persicae). Molecular analyses of field-collected samples demonstrate that amplified E4 esterase resistance to organophosphate insecticides is widespread in Australian grains across Australia. Knockdown resistance to pyrethroids is less abundant, but has an increased frequency in areas with known frequent use of these insecticides. Modified acetylcholinesterase resistance to dimethyl carbamates, such as pirimicarb, has not been found in Australia, nor has resistance to imidacloprid. Australian grain growers should consider control options that are less likely to promote insecticide resistance, and have reduced impacts on natural enemies. Research is ongoing in Australia and overseas to provide new strategies for aphid management in the future.

Specimen-based databases of Australian plant pathogens: past, present and future

Specimen-based records of most of the plant pathogens that occur in Australia can be accessed through the Australian Plant Disease Database and the Australian Plant Pest Database. These databases and the herbaria that underpin them are important resources for resolving quarantine and trade issues as well as for the diagnosis of plant diseases. The importance of these collections and databases to Australia's agricultural industries is discussed.

Past, current and future approaches to mango genetic improvement in Australia

Improving the genetic base of cultivars that underpin commercial mango production is generally recognized as necessary for long term industry stability. Genetic improvement can take many approaches to improve cultivars, each with their own advantages and disadvantages. This paper will discuss several approaches used in the genetic improvement of mangoes in Australia, including varietal introductions, selection of monoembryonic progeny, selection within polyembryonic populations, assisted open pollination and controlled closed pollination. The current activities of the Australian National Mango Breeding Program will be outlined, and the analysis and use of hybrid phenotype data from the project for selection of next generation parents will be discussed. Some of the important traits that will enhance the competitiveness of future cultivars will be introduced and the challenges in achieving them discussed. The use of a genomics approach and its impact on future mango breeding is examined.

The effect of data sources and quality on the predictive capacity of CLIMEX models: an assessment of Teleonemia scrupulosa and Octotoma scabripennis for the biocontrol of Lantana camara in Australia

Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.

Characterising insect plant host relationships facilitates understanding multiple host use

Weed biocontrol relies on host specificity testing, usually carried out under quarantine conditions to predict the future host range of candidate control agents. The predictive power of host testing can be scrutinised directly with Aconophora compressa, previously released against the weed Lantana camara L. (lantana) because its ecology in its new range (Australia) is known and includes the unanticipated use of several host species. Glasshouse based predictions of field host use from experiments designed a posteriori can therefore be compared against known field host use. Adult survival, reproductive output and egg maturation were quantified. Adult survival did not differ statistically across the four verbenaceous hosts used in Australia. Oviposition was significantly highest on fiddlewood (Citharexylum spinosum L.), followed by lantana, on which oviposition was significantly higher than on two varieties of Duranta erecta (‘‘geisha girl’’ and ‘‘Sheena’s gold’’; all Verbenaceae). Oviposition rates across Duranta varieties were not significantly different from each other but were significantly higher than on the two non-verbenaceous hosts (Jacaranda mimosifolia D. Don: Bignoneaceae (jacaranda) and Myoporum acuminatum R. Br.: Myoporaceae (Myoporum)). Production of adult A. compressa was modelled across the hosts tested. The only major discrepancy between model output and their relative abundance across hosts in the field was that densities on lantana in the field were much lower than predicted by the model. The adults may, therefore, not locate lantana under field conditions and/or adults may find lantana but leave after laying relatively few eggs. Fiddlewood is the only primary host plant of A. compressa in Australia, whereas lantana and the others are used secondarily or incidentally. The distinction between primary, secondary and incidental hosts of a herbivore species helps to predict the intensity and regularity of host use by that herbivore. Populations of the primary host plants of a released biological control agent are most likely to be consistently impacted by the herbivore, whereas secondary and incidental host plant species are unlikely to be impacted consistently. As a consequence, potential biocontrol agents should be released only against hosts to which they have been shown to be primarily adapted.

Wood properties and processing outcomes for plantation grown African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) trees from Clare, Queensland (18 and 20 year-old trees) and Katherine, Northern Territory (14 year-old trees).

Khaya senegalensis, African mahogany, a high-value hardwood, was introduced in the Northern Territory (NT) in the 1950s; included in various trials there and at Weipa, Q in the 1960s-1970s; planted on ex mine sites at Weipa (160 ha) until 1985; revived in farm plantings in Queensland and in trials in the NT in the 1990s; adopted for large-scale, annual planting in the Douglas-Daly region, NT from 2006 and is to have the planted area in the NT extended to at least 20,000 ha. The recent serious interest from plantation growers, including Forest Enterprises Australia Ltd (FEA), has seen the establishment of some large scale commercial plantations. FEA initiated the current study to process relatively young plantation stands from both Northern Territory and Queensland plantations to investigate the sawn wood and veneer recovery and quality from trees ranging from 14 years (NT – 36 trees) to 18-20 years (North Queensland – 31 trees). Field measures of tree size and straightness were complemented with log end splitting assessment and cross-sectional disc sample collection for laboratory wood properties measurements including colour and shrinkage. End-splitting scores assessed on sawn logs were relatively low compared to fast grown plantation eucalypts and did not impact processing negatively. Heartwood proportion in individual trees ranged from 50% up to 92 % of butt cross-sectional disc area for the visually-assessed dark coloured central heartwood and lighter coloured transition wood combined. Dark central heartwood proportion was positively related to tree size (R2 = 0.57). Chemical tests failed to assist in determining heartwood – sapwood boundary. Mean basic density of whole disc samples was 658 kg/m3 and ranged among trees from 603 to 712 kg/m3. When freshly sawn, the heartwood of African mahogany was orange-red to red. Transition wood appeared to be pinkish and the sapwood was a pale yellow colour. Once air dried the heartwood colour generally darkens to pinkish-brown or orange-brown and the effect of prolonged time and sun exposure is to darken and change the heartwood to a red-brown colour. A portable colour measurement spectrophotometer was used to objectively assess colour variation in CIE L*, a* and b* values over time with drying and exposure to sunlight. Capacity to predict standard colour values accurately after varying periods of direct sunlight exposure using results obtained on initial air-dried surfaces decreased with increasing time to sun exposure. The predictions are more accurate for L* values which represent brightness than for variation in the a* values (red spectrum). Selection of superior breeding trees for colour is likely to be based on dried samples exposed to sunlight to reliably highlight wood colour differences. A generally low ratio between tangential and radial shrinkages was found, which was reflected in a low incidence of board distortion (particularly cupping) during drying. A preliminary experiment was carried out to investigate the quality of NIR models to predict shrinkage and density. NIR spectra correlated reasonably well with radial shrinkage and air dried density. When calibration models were applied to their validation sets, radial shrinkage was predicted to an accuracy of 76% with Standard Error of Prediction of 0.21%. There was also a strong predictive power for wood density. These are encouraging results suggesting that NIR spectroscopy has good potential to be used as a non-destructive method to predict shrinkage and wood density using 12mm diameter increment core samples. Average green off saw recovery was 49.5% (range 40 to 69%) for Burdekin Agricultural College (BAC) logs and 41.9% (range 20 to 61%) for Katherine (NT) logs. These figures are about 10% higher than compared to 30-year-old Khaya study by Armstrong et al. (2007) however they are inflated as the green boards were not docked to remove wane prior to being tallied. Of the recovered sawn, dried and dressed volume from the BAC logs, based on the cambial face of boards, 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 40% for medium feature grade and 26% for high feature grades. The heart faces had a slightly higher recovery of select (30%) and medium feature (43%) grade boards with a reduction in the volume of high feature (22%) and reject (6%) grade boards. Distribution of board grades for the NT site aged 14 years followed very similar trends to those of the BAC site boards with an average (between facial and cambial face) 27% could potentially be used for select grade, 42% for medium feature grade, 26% for high feature grade and 5% reject. Relatively to some other subtropical eucalypts, there was a low incidence of borer attack. The major grade limiting defects for both medium and high feature grade boards recovered from the BAC site were knots and wane. The presence of large knots may reflect both management practices and the nature of the genetic material at the site. This stand was not managed for timber production with a very late pruning implemented at about age 12 years. The large amount of wane affected boards is indicative of logs with a large taper and the presence of significant sweep. Wane, knots and skip were the major grade limiting defects for the NT site reflecting considerable amounts of sweep with large taper as might be expected in younger trees. The green veneer recovered from billets of seven Khaya trees rotary peeled on a spindleless lathe produced a recovery of 83% of green billet volume. Dried veneer recovery ranged from 40 to 74 % per billet with an average of 64%. All of the recovered grades were suitable for use in structural ply in accordance to AS/NZ 2269: 2008. The majority of veneer sheets recovered from all billets was C grade (27%) with 20% making D grade and 13% B grade. Total dry sliced veneer recovery from the logs of the two largest logs from each location was estimated to be 41.1%. Very positive results have been recorded in this small scale study. The amount of colour development observed and the very reasonable recoveries of both sawn and veneer products, with a good representation of higher grades in the product distribution, is encouraging. The prospects for significant improvement in these results from well managed and productive stands grown for high quality timber should be high. Additionally, the study has shown the utility of non-destructive evaluation techniques for use in tree improvement programs to improve the quality of future plantations. A few trees combined several of the traits desired of individuals for a first breeding population. Fortunately, the two most promising trees (32, 19) had already been selected for breeding on external traits, and grafts of them are established in the seed orchard.

Your fish. Your future. Queensland Fisheries Strategy 2009-2014

The Queensland Fisheries Strategy 2009-2014 sets the direction for the future of fisheries and aims to address some of the challenges impacting Queensland's fisheries both from within Australia and abroad. Every year in Queensland almost a million people fish for a living, for recreation, or for traditional and customary purposes. Countless others rely on sustainable fisheries as the focus of tourism and other businesses - but there are major challenges for the fishing sector. Fisheries resources are finite and under significant stress. Fisheries face challenges including the potential for over-exploitation by all fishing sectors, increasing consumer demand, a rising population, coastal development, the effects of climate change, biosecurity risks, import competition and rising production costs.