Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment, Australia.

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0-3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.

Detection and characterisation of strong resistance to phosphine in Brazilian Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) (Coleoptera: Bostrychidae)

As failure to control Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) with phosphine is a common problem in the grain-growing regions of Brazil, a study was undertaken to investigate the frequency, distribution and strength of phosphine resistance in R. dominica in Brazil. Nineteen samples of R. dominica were collected between 1991 and 2003 from central storages where phosphine fumigation had failed to control this species. Insects were cultured without selection until testing in 2005. Each sample was tested for resistance to phosphine on the basis of the response of adults to discriminating concentrations of phosphine (20 and 48 h exposures) and full dose-response assays (48 h exposure). Responses of the Brazilian R. dominica samples were compared with reference susceptible, weak-resistance and strong-resistance strains from Australia in parallel assays. All Brazilian population samples showed resistance to phosphine: five were diagnosed with weak resistance and 14 with strong resistance. Five samples showed levels of resistance similar to the reference strong-resistance strain. A representative highly resistant sample was characterised by exposing mixed-age cultures to a range of constant concentrations of phosphine for various exposure periods. Time to population extinction (TPE) and time to 99.9% suppression of population (LT99.9) values of this sample were generally similar to those of the reference strong-resistance strain. For example, at 0.1, 0.5 and 1.0 mg L-1, LT99.9 values for BR33 and the reference strong-resistance strain were respectively 21, 6.4 and 3.7 days and 17, 6.2 and 3.8 days. With both strains, doubling phosphine concentrations to 2 mg L -1 resulted in increased LT99.9 and TPE. High level and frequency of resistance in all population samples, some of which had been cultured without selection for up to 12 years, suggest little or no fitness deficit associated with phosphine resistance. The present research indicates that widespread phosphine resistance may be developing in Brazil. Fumigation practices should be monitored and resistance management plans implemented to alleviate further resistance development.

Evaluation of weed eradication programs: containment and extirpation

Weed eradication programs often require 10 years or more to achieve their objective. It is important that progress is evaluated on a regular basis so that programs that are 'on track' can be distinguished from those that are unlikely to succeed. Earlier research has addressed conformity of eradication programs to the delimitation criterion. In this paper evaluation in relation to the containment and extirpation criteria is considered. Because strong evidence of containment failure (i.e. spread from infestations targeted for eradication) is difficult to obtain, it generally will not be practicable to evaluate how effective eradication programs are at containing the target species. However, chronic failure of containment will be reflected in sustained increases in cumulative infested area and thus a failure to delimit a weed invasion. Evaluating the degree of conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria is therefore sufficient to give an appraisal of progress towards the eradication objective. A significant step towards eradication occurs when a weed is no longer readily detectable at an infested site, signalling entry to the monitoring phase. This transition will occur more quickly if reproduction is prevented consistently. Where an invasion consists of multiple infestations, the monitoring profile (frequency distribution of time since detection) provides a summary of the overall effectiveness of the eradication program in meeting the extirpation criterion. Eradication is generally claimed when the target species has not been detected for a period equal to or greater than its seed longevity, although there is often considerable uncertainty in estimates of the latter. Recently developed methods, which take into consideration the cost of continued monitoring vs. the potential cost of damage should a weed escape owing to premature cessation of an eradication program, can assist managers to decide when to terminate weed eradication programs.

Estimating and influencing the duration of weed eradication programmes

1. Weed eradication efforts often must be sustained for long periods owing to the existence of persistent seed banks, among other factors. Decision makers need to consider both the amount of investment required and the period over which investment must be maintained when determining whether to commit to (or continue) an eradication programme. However, a basis for estimating eradication programme duration based on simple data has been lacking. Here, we present a stochastic dynamic model that can provide such estimates. 2. The model is based upon the rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring state (i.e. no plants detected for at least 12 months), rates of reversion of infestations from monitoring to the active state and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. Isoquants that illustrate the combinations of progression and reversion parameters corresponding to eradication within different time frames are generated. 3. The model is applied to ongoing eradication programmes targeting branched broomrape Orobanche ramosa and chromolaena Chromolaena odorata. The minimum periods in which eradication could potentially be achieved were 22 and 23 years, respectively. On the basis of programme performance until 2008, however, eradication is predicted to take considerably longer for both species (on average, 62 and 248 years, respectively). Performance of the branched broomrape programme could be best improved through reducing rates of reversion to the active state; for chromolaena, boosting rates of progression to the monitoring state is more important. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our model for estimating weed eradication programme duration, which captures critical transitions between a limited number of states, is readily applicable to any weed.Aparticular strength of the method lies in its minimal data requirements. These comprise estimates of maximum seed persistence and infested area, plus consistent annual records of the detection (or otherwise) of the weed in each infestation. This work provides a framework for identifying where improvements in management are needed and a basis for testing the effectiveness of alternative tactics. If adopted, our approach should help improve decision making with regard to eradication as a management strategy.

Estimating the duration and cost of weed eradication programmes

Two prerequisites for realistically embarking upon an eradication programme are that cost-benefit analysis favours this strategy over other management options and that sufficient resources are available to carry the programme through to completion. These are not independent criteria, but it is our view that too little attention has been paid to estimating the investment required to complete weed eradication programmes. We deal with this problem by using a two-pronged approach: 1) developing a stochastic dynamic model that provides an estimation of programme duration; and 2) estimating the inputs required to delimit a weed incursion and to prevent weed reproduction over a sufficiently long period to allow extirpation of all infestations. The model is built upon relationships that capture the time-related detection of new infested areas, rates of progression of infestations from the active to the monitoring stage, rates of reversion of infestations from the monitoring to active stage, and the frequency distribution of time since last detection for all infestations. This approach is applied to the branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication programme currently underway in South Australia. This programme commenced in 1999 and currently 7450 ha are known to be infested with the weed. To date none of the infestations have been eradicated. Given recent (2008) levels of investment and current eradication methods, model predictions are that it would take, on average, an additional 73 years to eradicate this weed at an average additional cost (NPV) of $AU67.9m. When the model was run for circumstances in 2003 and 2006, the average programme duration and total cost (NPV) were predicted to be 159 and 94 years, and $AU91.3m and $AU72.3m, respectively. The reduction in estimated programme length and cost may represent progress towards the eradication objective, although eradication of this species still remains a long term prospect.

Implications of geometric plasticity for maximizing photosynthesis in branching corals

Reef-building corals are an example of plastic photosynthetic organisms that occupy environments of high spatiotemporal variations in incident irradiance. Many phototrophs use a range of photoacclimatory mechanisms to optimize light levels reaching the photosynthetic units within the cells. In this study, we set out to determine whether phenotypic plasticity in branching corals across light habitats optimizes potential light utilization and photosynthesis. In order to do this, we mapped incident light levels across coral surfaces in branching corals and measured the photosynthetic capacity across various within-colony surfaces. Based on the field data and modelled frequency distribution of within-colony surface light levels, our results show that branching corals are substantially self-shaded at both 5 and 18 m, and the modal light level for the within-colony surface is 50 mu mol photons m(-2) s(-1). Light profiles across different locations showed that the lowest attenuation at both depths was found on the inner surface of the outermost branches, while the most self-shading surface was on the bottom side of these branches. In contrast, vertically extended branches in the central part of the colony showed no differences between the sides of branches. The photosynthetic activity at these coral surfaces confirmed that the outermost branches had the greatest change in sun- and shade-adapted surfaces; the inner surfaces had a 50 % greater relative maximum electron transport rate compared to the outer side of the outermost branches. This was further confirmed by sensitivity analysis, showing that branch position was the most influential parameter in estimating whole-colony relative electron transport rate (rETR). As a whole, shallow colonies have double the photosynthetic capacity compared to deep colonies. In terms of phenotypic plasticity potentially optimizing photosynthetic capacity, we found that at 18 m, the present coral colony morphology increased the whole-colony rETR, while at 5 m, the colony morphology decreased potential light utilization and photosynthetic output. This result of potential energy acquisition being underutilized in shallow, highly lit waters due to the shallow type morphology present may represent a trade-off between optimizing light capture and reducing light damage, as this type morphology can perhaps decrease long-term costs of and effect of photoinhibition. This may be an important strategy as opposed to adopting a type morphology, which results in an overall higher energetic acquisition. Conversely, it could also be that maximizing light utilization and potential photosynthetic output is more important in low-light habitats for Acropora humilis.

Is the distribution of Fiji leaf gall in Australian sugarcane explained by variation in the vector Perkinsiella saccharicida?

Fiji leaf gall (FLG) is an important virally induced disease in Australian sugarcane. It is confined to southern canegrowing areas, despite its vector, the delphacid planthopper Perkinsiella saccharicida, occurring in all canegrowing areas of Queensland and New South Wales. This disparity between distributions could be a result of successful containment of the disease through quarantine and/or geographical barriers, or because northern Queensland populations of Perkinsiella may be poorer vectors of the disease. These hypotheses were first tested by investigating variation in the ITS2 region of the rDNA fragment among eastern Australian and overseas populations of Perkinsiella. The ITS2 sequences of the Western Australian P. thompsoni and the Fijian P. vitiensis were distinguishable from those of P. saccharicida and there was no significant variation among the 26 P. saccharicida populations. Reciprocal crosses of a northern Queensland and a southern Queensland population of P. saccharicida were fertile, so they may well be conspecific. Single vector transmission experiments showed that a population of P. saccharicida from northern Queensland had a higher vector competency than either of two southern Queensland populations. The frequency of virus acquisition in the vector populations was demonstrated to be important in the vector competency of the planthopper. The proportion of infected vectors that transmitted the virus to plants was not significantly different among the populations tested. This study shows that the absence of FLG from northern Queensland is not due to a lack of vector competency of the northern population of P. saccharicida.

Determining changes in the distribution and abundance of a Rhyzopertha dominica phosphine resistance allele in farm grain storages using a DNA marker

BACKGROUND: The lesser grain borer, Rhyzopertha dominica (F.), is a highly destructive pest of stored grain that is strongly resistant to the fumigant phosphine (PH3). Phosphine resistance is due to genetic variants at the rph2 locus that alter the function of the dihydrolipoamide dehydrogenase (DLD) gene. This discovery now enables direct detection of resistance variants at the rph2 locus in field populations. RESULTS: A genotype assay was developed for direct detection of changes in distribution and frequency of a phosphine resistance allele in field populations of R. dominica. Beetles were collected from ten farms in south-east Queensland in 2006 and resampled in 2011. Resistance allele frequency increased in the period from 2006 to 2011 on organic farms with no history of phosphine use, implying that migration of phosphine-resistant R. dominica had occurred from nearby storages. CONCLUSION: Increasing resistance allele frequencies on organic farms suggest local movement of beetles and dispersal of insects from areas where phosphine has been used. This research also highlighted for the first time the utility of a genetic DNA marker in accurate and rapid determination of the distribution of phosphine-resistant insects in the grain value chain. Extending this research over larger landscapes would help in identifying resistance problems and enable timely pest management decisions. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry 69 6 June 2013 10.1002/ps.3514 Rapid Report Rapid Report © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.