Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in Western Queelsland

Researchers developing climate-based forecasts, workshops, software tools and information to aid grazier decisions undertook an evaluation study to enhance planning and benchmark impact. One hundred graziers in Western Queensland were randomly selected from 7 shires and surveyed by mail and telephone (43 respondents) to explore levels of knowledge and use of climate information, practices and information needs. We found 36% of respondents apply the Southern Oscillation Index to property decisions but 92% were unaware El Niño Southern Oscillation’s predictive signal in the region is greater for pasture growth than rainfall, suggesting they may not recognise the potential of pasture growth forecasts. Almost 75% of graziers consider they are conservative or risk averse in their attitude to managing their enterprise. Mail respondents (n= 20) if given a 68%, on average, probability of exceeding median rainfall forecast may change a decision; almost two-thirds vary stocking rate based on forage available, last year’s pasture growth or the Southern Oscillation Index; the balance maintain a constant stocking rate strategy; 90% have access to a computer; 75% to the internet and 95% have a fax. This paper presents findings of the study and draws comparisons with a similar study of 174 irrigators in the Northern Murray-Darling Basin (Aust. J. Exp. Ag. 44, 247-257). New insights and information gained are helping the team better understand client needs and plan, design and extend tools and information tailored to grazier knowledge, practice, information needs and preferences. Results have also provided a benchmark against which to measure project impact and have influenced the team to make important changes to their project planning, activities and methods for transferring technology tailored to grazier preferences.

Simulating crop-parasitic weed interactions using APSIM: Model evaluation and application

The parasitic weed Orobanche crenata inflicts major damage on faba bean, lentil, pea and other crops in Mediterranean environments. The development of methods to control O. crenata is to a large extent hampered by the complexity of host-parasite systems. Using a model of host-parasite interactions can help to explain and understand this intricacy. This paper reports on the evaluation and application of a model simulating host-parasite competition as affected by environment and management that was implemented in the framework of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM). Model-predicted faba bean and O. crenata growth and development were evaluated against independent data. The APSIM-Fababean and -Parasite modules displayed a good capability to reproduce effects of pedoclimatic conditions, faba bean sowing date and O. crenata infestation on host-parasite competition. The r(2) values throughout exceeded 0.84 (RMSD: 5.36 days) for phenological, 0.85 (RMSD: 223.00 g m(-2)) for host growth and 0.78 (RMSD: 99.82 g m(-2)) for parasite growth parameters. Inaccuracies of simulated faba bean root growth that caused some bias of predicted parasite number and host yield loss may be dealt with by more flexibly simulating vertical root distribution. The model was applied in simulation experiments to determine optimum sowing windows for infected and non-infected faba bean in Mediterranean environments. Simulation results proved realistic and testified to the capability of APSIM to contribute to the development of tactical approaches in parasitic weed control.

Evaluation of the Australian branched broomrape (Orobanche ramosa) eradication program

Because weed eradication programs commonly take 10 or more years to complete, there is a need to evaluate progress toward the eradication objective. We present a simple model, based on information that is readily obtainable, that assesses conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria for eradication. It is applied to the program currently targeting the annual parasitic weed, branched broomrape, in South Australia. The model consists of delimitation and extirpation (E) measures plotted against each other to form an 'eradograph.' Deviations from the 'ideal' eradograph plot can inform tactical responses, e.g., increases in survey and/or control effort. Infestations progress from the active phase to the monitoring phase when no plants have been detected for at least 12 mo. They revert to the active phase upon further detection of plants. We summarize this process for the invasion as a whole in a state-and-transition model. Using this model we demonstrate that the invasion is unlikely to be delimited unless the amount of newly detected infested area decreases, on average, by at least 50% per annum. As a result of control activities implemented, on average approximately 70% (range, 44 to 86%) of active infestations progressed to the monitoring phase in the year following their detection. Simulations suggest that increasing this rate of transition will not increase E to a significant extent. The rate of reversion of infestations from the monitoring phase to the active phase decreased logarithmically with time since last detection, but it is likely that lower rates of reversion would accelerate the trend toward extirpation. Program performance with respect to the delimitation criterion has been variable; performance with respect to the extirpation criterion would be improved considerably by the development and application of cost-effective methods for eliminating branched broomrape soil seed populations.

Evaluation of three storage systems used for chilling and holding swordfish

Swordfish are kept chilled, not frozen, for up to 15 days before being unloaded at Australian ports. Swordfish landed alive, and to a lesser extent prerigor, have better quality when unloaded. Warmer fishing waters did not lead to poorer quality at unloading. There was a serious loss of quality during long fishing trips. Sex had no influence on swordfish quality. Three methods of chilling were evaluated: refrigerated seawater (RSW) chilling for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice, refrigerated brine (seawater with extra salt added) for up to 2 days followed by storage in a freshwater ice slurry, and ice slurry (freshwater ice mixed with seawater) for up to 2 days followed by storage under ice only. Two fishing trips were monitored for each method. The freshness indicator K value was used to determine which method produced the best quality swordfish when unloaded at the factory. Storage method played a larger role in quality loss than capture conditions. Refrigerated brine produced the best quality swordfish when the machinery functioned properly closely followed by RSW. Ice slurry chilling of large fish such as swordfish exhibited initial delays in the reduction of core temperature which led to lower quality. This method could be improved with the addition of mechanical circulation. Mechanical problems, which resulted in minor increases of temperature during brine storage, led to a much larger loss of quality than would be expected.

Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland

Survey methods were engaged to measure the change in use and knowledge of climate information by pastoralists in western Queensland. The initial mail survey was undertaken in 2000-01 (n=43) and provided a useful benchmark of pastoralists climate knowledge. Two years of climate applications activities were completed and clients were re-surveyed in 2003 (n=49) to measure the change in knowledge and assess the effectiveness of the climate applications activities. Two methods were used to assess changes in client knowledge, viz., self-assessment and test questions. We found that the use of seasonal climate forecasts in decision making increased from 36% in 2001 (n=42) to 51% in 2003 (n=49) (P=0.07). The self-assessment technique was unsatisfactory as a measure of changing knowledge over short periods (1-3 years), but the test question technique was successful and indicated an improvement in climate knowledge among respondents. The increased levels of use of seasonal climate forecasts in management and improved knowledge was partly attributed to the climate applications activities of the project. Further, those who used seasonal forecasting (n=25) didn't understand key components of forecasts (e.g. probability, median) better than those who didn't use seasonal forecasts (n=24) (P>0.05). This identifies the potential for misunderstanding and misinterpretation of forecasts among users and highlights the need for providers of forecasts to understand the difficulties and prepare simply written descriptions of forecasts and disseminate these with the maps showing probabilities. The most preferred means of accessing climate information were internet, email, 'The Season Ahead' newsletter and newspaper. The least preferred were direct contact with extension officers and attending field days and group meetings. Eighty-six percent of respondents used the internet and 67% used ADSL broadband internet (April 2003). Despite these findings, extension officers play a key role in preparing and publishing the information on the web, in emails and newsletters. We also believe that direct contact with extension officers trained in climate applications is desirable in workshop-like events to improve knowledge of the difficult concepts underpinning climate forecasts, which may then stimulate further adoption.

An evaluation of genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual appearance for assessing dingo purity: implications for dingo conservation

The introgression of domestic dog genes into dingo populations threatens the genetic integrity of 'pure' dingoes. However, dingo conservation efforts are hampered by difficulties in distinguishing between dingoes and hybrids in the field. This study evaluates consistency in the status of hybridisation (i.e. dingo, hybrid or dog) assigned by genetic analyses, skull morphology and visual assessments. Of the 56 south-east Queensland animals sampled, 39 (69.6%) were assigned the same status by all three methods, 10 (17.9%) by genetic and skull methods, four (7.1%) by genetic and visual methods; and two (3.6%) by skull and visual methods. Pair-wise comparisons identified a significant relationship between genetic and skull methods, but not between either of these and visual methods. Results from surveying 13 experienced wild dog managers showed that hybrids were more easily identified by visual characters than were dingoes. A more reliable visual assessment can be developed through determining the relationship between (1) genetics and phenotype by sampling wild dog populations and (2) the expression of visual characteristics from different proportions and breeds of domestic dog genes by breeding trials. Culling obvious hybrids based on visual characteristics, such as sable and patchy coat colours, should slow the process of hybridisation.

Evaluation of weed eradication programs: containment and extirpation

Weed eradication programs often require 10 years or more to achieve their objective. It is important that progress is evaluated on a regular basis so that programs that are 'on track' can be distinguished from those that are unlikely to succeed. Earlier research has addressed conformity of eradication programs to the delimitation criterion. In this paper evaluation in relation to the containment and extirpation criteria is considered. Because strong evidence of containment failure (i.e. spread from infestations targeted for eradication) is difficult to obtain, it generally will not be practicable to evaluate how effective eradication programs are at containing the target species. However, chronic failure of containment will be reflected in sustained increases in cumulative infested area and thus a failure to delimit a weed invasion. Evaluating the degree of conformity to the delimitation and extirpation criteria is therefore sufficient to give an appraisal of progress towards the eradication objective. A significant step towards eradication occurs when a weed is no longer readily detectable at an infested site, signalling entry to the monitoring phase. This transition will occur more quickly if reproduction is prevented consistently. Where an invasion consists of multiple infestations, the monitoring profile (frequency distribution of time since detection) provides a summary of the overall effectiveness of the eradication program in meeting the extirpation criterion. Eradication is generally claimed when the target species has not been detected for a period equal to or greater than its seed longevity, although there is often considerable uncertainty in estimates of the latter. Recently developed methods, which take into consideration the cost of continued monitoring vs. the potential cost of damage should a weed escape owing to premature cessation of an eradication program, can assist managers to decide when to terminate weed eradication programs.

Evaluation of wood characteristics of tropical post-mid rotation plantation Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. pellita: Part (b) Accelerated seasoning of sawn timber.

Drying trials were conducted using two species of plantation grown eucalypt timbers: 19-year-old Eucalyptus cloeziana (Gympie messmate) and 15-year-old Eucalyptus pellita (red mahogany). The objective of this study was to gain an understanding of the drying potential of young plantation grown material using accelerated seasoning methods, a process expected to be critcal to the success of plantation hardwood products entering value added markets. The findings are encouraging, indicating that both species can be dried using conventional drying techniques much faster than industry is currently achieving when drying native forest timber. The results suggest that there is a definite drying time advantatge in vacuum drying over conventional methods for 19-year-old E. cloeziana. The findings have shown that through careful schedule manipulation and adjustment, the grade quality can be optimised to suit the desired expectation. As this study was limited to only a small number of trials, time and quality improvements are expected to be realised for both conventional and vacuum drying methods as more research is conducted.

Evaluation of super-heated steam vacuum drying viability and development of a predictive drying model for four Australian hardwood species.

The results of drying trials show that vacuum drying produces material of the same or better quality than is currently being produced by conventional methods within 41 to 66 % of the drying time, depending on the species. Economic analysis indicates positive or negative results depending on the species and the size of drying operation. Definite economic benefits exist by vacuum drying over conventional drying for all operation sizes, in terms of drying quality, time and economic viability, for E. marginata and E. pilularis. The same applies for vacuum drying C. citriodora and E. obliqua in larger drying operations (kiln capacity 50 m3 or above), but not for smaller operations at this stage. Further schedule refinement has the ability to reduce drying times further and may improve the vacuum drying viability of the latter species in smaller operations.

Linking spatial stock dynamics and economics: Evaluation of indicators and fishery management for the travelling eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

Reduced economic circumstances have moved management goals towards higher profit, rather than maximum sustainable yields in several Australian fisheries. The eastern king prawn is one such fishery, for which we have developed new methodology for stock dynamics, calculation of model-based and data-based reference points and management strategy evaluation. The fishery is notable for the northward movement of prawns in eastern Australian waters, from the State jurisdiction of New South Wales to that of Queensland, as they grow to spawning size, so that vessels fishing in the northern deeper waters harvest more large prawns. Bio-economic fishing data were standardized for calibrating a length-structured spatial operating model. Model simulations identified that reduced boat numbers and fishing effort could improve profitability while retaining viable fishing in each jurisdiction. Simulations also identified catch-rate levels that were effective for monitoring in simple within-year effort-control rules. However, favourable performance of catch-rate indicators was achieved only when a meaningful upper limit was placed on total allowed fishing effort. The methods and findings will allow improved measures for monitoring fisheries and inform decision makers on the uncertainty and assumptions affecting economic indicators.

Evaluation of ELISA coupled with Western blot as a surveillance tool for Trichinella infection in wild boar (Sus scrofa)

Trichinella surveillance in wildlife relies on muscle digestion of large samples which are logistically difficult to store and transport in remote and tropical regions as well as labour-intensive to process. Serological methods such as enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) offer rapid, cost-effective alternatives for surveillance but should be paired with additional tests because of the high false-positive rates encountered in wildlife. We investigated the utility of ELISAs coupled with Western blot (WB) in providing evidence of Trichinella exposure or infection in wild boar. Serum samples were collected from 673 wild boar from a high- and low-risk region for Trichinella introduction within mainland Australia, which is considered Trichinella-free. Sera were examined using both an 'in-house' and a commercially available indirect-ELISA that used excretory secretory (E/S) antigens. Cut-off values for positive results were determined using sera from the low-risk population. All wild boar from the high-risk region (352) and 139/321 (43.3%) of the wild boar from the low-risk region were tested by artificial digestion. Testing by Western blot using E/S antigens, and a Trichinella-specific real-time PCR was also carried out on all ELISA-positive samples. The two ELISAs correctly classified all positive controls as well as one naturally infected wild boar from Gabba Island in the Torres Strait. In both the high- and low-risk populations, the ELISA results showed substantial agreement (k-value = 0.66) that increased to very good (k-value = 0.82) when WB-positive only samples were compared. The results of testing sera collected from the Australian mainland showed the Trichinella seroprevalence was 3.5% (95% C.I. 0.0-8.0) and 2.3% (95% C.I. 0.0-5.6) using the in-house and commercial ELISA coupled with WB respectively. These estimates were significantly higher (P < 0.05) than the artificial digestion estimate of 0.0% (95% C.I. 0.0-1.1). Real-time PCR testing of muscle from seropositive animals did not detect Trichinella DNA in any mainland animals, but did reveal the presence of a second larvae-positive wild boar on Gabba Island, supporting its utility as an alternative, highly sensitive method in muscle examination. The serology results suggest Australian wildlife may have been exposed to Trichinella parasites. However, because of the possibility of non-specific reactions with other parasitic infections, more work using well-defined cohorts of positive and negative samples is required. Even if the specificity of the ELISAs is proven to be low, their ability to correctly classify the small number of true positive sera in this study indicates utility in screening wild boar populations for reactive sera which can be followed up with additional testing. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A comparison of stocking methods for beef production in northern Australia: pasture and soil surface condition responses

Historical stocking methods of continuous, season-long grazing of pastures with little account of growing conditions have caused some degradation within grazed landscapes in northern Australia. Alternative stocking methods have been implemented to address this degradation and raise the productivity and profitability of the principal livestock, cattle. Because information comparing stocking methods is limited, an evaluation was undertaken to quantify the effects of stocking methods on pastures, soils and grazing capacity. The approach was to monitor existing stocking methods on nine commercial beef properties in north and south Queensland. Environments included native and exotic pastures and eucalypt (lighter soil) and brigalow (heavier soil) land types. Breeding and growing cattle were grazed under each method. The owners/managers, formally trained in pasture and grazing management, made all management decisions affecting the study sites. Three stocking methods were compared: continuous (with rest), extensive rotation and intensive rotation (commonly referred to as 'cell grazing'). There were two or three stocking methods examined on each property: in total 21 methods (seven continuous, six extensive rotations and eight intensive rotations) were monitored over 74 paddocks, between 2006 and 2009. Pasture and soil surface measurements were made in the autumns of 2006, 2007 and 2009, while the paddock grazing was analysed from property records for the period from 2006 to 2009. The first 2 years had drought conditions (rainfall average 3.4 decile) but were followed by 2 years of above-average rainfall. There were no consistent differences between stocking methods across all sites over the 4 years for herbage mass, plant species composition, total and litter cover, or landscape function analysis (LFA) indices. There were large responses to rainfall in the last 2 years with mean herbage mass in the autumn increasing from 1970 kg DM ha(-1) in 2006-07 to 3830 kg DM ha(-1) in 2009. Over the same period, ground and litter cover and LFA indices increased. Across all sites and 4 years, mean grazing capacity was similar for the three stocking methods. There were, however, significant differences in grazing capacity between stocking methods at four sites but these differences were not consistent between stocking methods or sites. Both the continuous and intensive rotation methods supported the highest average annual grazing capacity at different sites. The results suggest that cattle producers can obtain similar ecological responses and carry similar numbers of livestock under any of the three stocking methods.