Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Increase water use efficiency and productivity, and reduce energy and water usage and costs, of dairy and fodder enterprises, to reduce costs of milk production

Increase water use efficiency and productivity, and reduce energy and water usage and costs, of dairy and fodder enterprises, to reduce costs of milk production.

Better Macadamia crop forecasting

Better Macadamia crop forecasting.

Better Macadamia Crop Forecasting - Part 2

The continually expanding macadamia industry needs an accurate crop forecasting system to allow it to develop effective crop handling and marketing strategies, particularly when the industry faces recurring cycles of unsustainably high and low commodity prices. This project aims to provide the AMS with a robust, reliable predictive model of national crop volume within 10% of the actual crop by 1 April each year by factoring known seasonal, environmental, cultural, climatic, management and biological constraints, together with the existing AMS database which includes data on tree numbers, tree age, variety, location and previous season's production.

Increasing energy efficiency in Australian protected cropping

Management of environmental emissions is a significant challenge and opportunity for all of horticulture, including the protected cropping sector. Energy is a significant input in controlled environment horticulture and an important source of environmental emissions. Energy underlies this industry’s capacity to provide a consistent supply of fresh, quality, safe food in a changing global climate.

Australian Timber Pole Resources for Energy Networks. A review

More than 5 million timber utility poles are currently in-service throughout Australia’s energy networks. Most were produced from select native forest-grown hardwood species having the required structural characteristics and naturally-durable heartwood. Anecdotal evidence suggests that up to 70% of the timber poles that are currently in-service were installed over the 20 years following the end of World War Two, and these poles are likely to require replacement or remedial maintenance over the next decade. The purposes of this review were to clarify the supply and demand situation for traditional timber poles, and to investigate alternatives in terms of their potential availability and suitability.

Immediate and residual effects of heat stress and restricted intake on milk protein and casein composition and energy metabolism

The effects of heat stress on dairy production can be separated into 2 distinct causes: those effects that are mediated by the reduced voluntary feed intake associated with heat stress, and the direct physiological and metabolic effects of heat stress. To distinguish between these, and identify their effect on milk protein and casein concentration, mid-lactation Holstein-Friesian cows (n = 24) were housed in temperature-controlled chambers and either subjected to heat stress HS; temperature-humidity index (THI) ~78 or kept in a THI < 70 environment and pair-fed with heat-stressed cows (TN-R) for 7 d. A control group of cows was kept in a THI < 70 environment with ad libitum feeding (TN-AL). A subsequent recovery period (7 d), with THI < 70 and ad libitum feeding followed. Intake accounted for only part of the effects of heat stress. Heat stress reduced the milk protein concentration, casein number, and casein concentration and increased the urea concentration in milk beyond the effects of restriction of intake. Under HS, the proportion in total casein of αS1-casein increased and the proportion of αS2-casein decreased. Because no effect of HS on milk fat or lactose concentration was found, these effects appeared to be the result of specific downregulation of mammary protein synthesis, and not a general reduction in mammary activity. No residual effects were found of HS or TN-R on milk production or composition after THI < 70 and ad libitum intake were restored. Heat-stressed cows had elevated blood concentrations of urea and Ca, compared with TN-R and TN-AL. Cows in TN-R had higher serum nonesterified fatty acid concentrations than cows in HS. It was proposed that HS and TN-R cows may mobilize different tissues as endogenous sources of energy.