7 resultados para empirical data
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.
Resumo:
Abstract of Macbeth, G. M., Broderick, D., Buckworth, R. & Ovenden, J. R. (In press, Feb 2013). Linkage disequilibrium estimation of effective population size with immigrants from divergent populations: a case study on Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). G3: Genes, Genomes and Genetics. Estimates of genetic effective population size (Ne) using molecular markers are a potentially useful tool for the management of endangered through to commercial species. But, pitfalls are predicted when the effective size is large, as estimates require large numbers of samples from wild populations for statistical validity. Our simulations showed that linkage disequilibrium estimates of Ne up to 10,000 with finite confidence limits can be achieved with sample sizes around 5000. This was deduced from empirical allele frequencies of seven polymorphic microsatellite loci in a commercially harvested fisheries species, the narrow barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson). As expected, the smallest standard deviation of Ne estimates occurred when low frequency alleles were excluded. Additional simulations indicated that the linkage disequilibrium method was sensitive to small numbers of genotypes from cryptic species or conspecific immigrants. A correspondence analysis algorithm was developed to detect and remove outlier genotypes that could possibly be inadvertently sampled from cryptic species or non-breeding immigrants from genetically separate populations. Simulations demonstrated the value of this approach in Spanish mackerel data. When putative immigrants were removed from the empirical data, 95% of the Ne estimates from jacknife resampling were above 24,000.
Resumo:
Wild carnivores are becoming increasing common in urban areas. In Australia, dingoes exist, in most large cities and towns within their extended range. However, little empirical data is available to inform dingo management or address potential dingo–human conflicts during urban planning. From GPS tracking data, the nine dingoes, predominately juvenile and female, we tracked lived within 700 m of residential homes at all times and frequently crossed roads, visited backyards and traversed built-up areas. Home range sizes ranged between 0.37 km2 and 100.32 km2. Dingoes were mostly nocturnal, averaging 591 m/h between dusk and dawn. Juvenile and adult dingoes spent up to 19% and 72% of their time in urban habitats. Fresh scats from most areas surveyed tested positive to a variety of common zoonoses. These data suggest dingoes are capable of exploiting peri-urban areas and might contribute to human health and safety risks, the significance of which remains unknown.
Resumo:
Sectors of the forest plantation industry in Australia are set to expand in the near future using species or hybrids of the spotted gums (Corymbia, Section Politaria). Plantations of these taxa have already been introduced across temperate and subtropical Australia, representing locally exotic introductions from native stands in Queensland and New South Wales. A literature review was undertaken to provide insights into the potential for pollen-mediated gene flow from these plantations into native populations. Three factors suggest that such gene flow is likely; (1) interspecific hybridisation within the genus has frequently been recorded, including between distantly related species from different sections, (2) apparent high levels of vertebrate pollinator activity may result in plantation pollen being moved over hundreds of kilometres, (3) much of the plantation estate is being established among closely related taxa and therefore few barriers to gene flow are expected. Across Australia, 20 of the 100 native Corymbia taxa were found to have regional level co-occurrence with plantations. These were located most notably within regions of north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland, however, co-occurrence was also found in south-west Western Australia and eastern Victoria. The native species found to have co-occurrence were then assessed for the presence of reproductive barriers at each step in the process of gene flow that may reduce the number of species at risk even further. The available data suggest three risk categories exist for Corymbia. The highest risk was for gene flow from plantations of spotted gums to native populations of spotted gums. This was based on the expected limited existence of pre- and post-zygotic barriers, substantial long-distance pollen dispersal and an apparent broad period of flowering in Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata plantations. The following risk category focussed on gene flow from Corymbia torelliana × C. c. variegata hybrid plantations into native C. c. variegata, as the barriers associated with the production and establishment of F1 hybrids have been circumvented. For the lowest risk category, Corymbia plantations may present a risk to other non-spotted gum species, however, further investigation of the particular cross-combinations is required. A list of research directions is provided to better quantify these risks. Empirical data will need to be combined within a risk assessment framework that will not only estimate the likelihood of exotic gene flow, but also consider the conservation status/value of the native populations. In addition, the potential impacts of pollen flow from plantations will need to be weighed up against their various economic and environmental benefits.
Resumo:
In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.
Resumo:
Understanding plant demography and plant response to herbivory is critical to the selection of effective weed biological control agents. We adopt the metaphor of 'filters' to suggest how agent prioritisation may be improved to narrow our choices down to those likely to be most effective in achieving the desired weed management outcome. Models can serve to capture our level of knowledge (or ignorance) about our study system and we illustrate how one type of modelling approach (matrix models) may be useful in identifying the weak link in a plant life cycle by using a hypothetical and an actual weed example (Parkinsonia aculeata). Once the vulnerable stage has been identified we propose that studying plant response to herbivory (simulated and/or actual) can help identify the guilds of herbivores to which a plant is most likely to succumb. Taking only potentially effective agents through the filter of host specificity may improve the chances of releasing safe and effective agents. The methods we outline may not always lead us definitively to the successful agent(s), but such an empirical, data-driven approach will make the basis for agent selection explicit and serve as testable hypotheses once agents are released.
Resumo:
Top-predators have been reported to have an important role in structuring food webs and maintaining ecological processes for the benefit of biodiversity at lower trophic levels. This is thought to be achieved through their suppressive effects on sympatric mesopredators and prey. Great scientific and public interest surrounds the potential use of top-predators as biodiversity conservation tools, and it can often be difficult to separate what we think we know and what we really know about their ecological utility. Not all the claims made about the ecological roles of top-predators can be substantiated by current evidence. We review the methodology underpinning empirical data on the ecological roles of Australian dingoes (Canis lupus dingo and hybrids) to provide a comprehensive and objective benchmark for knowledge of the ecological roles of Australia's largest terrestrial predator. From a wide variety of methodological flaws, sampling bias, and experimental design constraints inherent to 38 of the 40 field studies we assessed, we demonstrate that there is presently unreliable and inconclusive evidence for dingoes role as a biodiversity regulator. We also discuss the widespread (both taxonomically and geographically) and direct negative effects of dingoes to native fauna, and the few robust studies investigating their positive roles. In light of the highly variable and context-specific impacts of dingoes on faunal biodiversity and the inconclusive state of the literature, we strongly caution against the positive management of dingoes in the absence of a supporting evidence-base for such action.