33 resultados para economic assumptions

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

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Mould growth in field crops or stored grain reduces starch and lipid content, with consequent increases in fibre, and an overall reduction in digestible energy; palatability is often adversely affected. If these factors are allowed for, and mycotoxin concentrations are low, there are sound economic reasons for using this cheaper grain. Mycotoxins are common in stock feed but their effects on animal productivity are usually slight because either the concentration is too low or the animal is tolerant to the toxin. In Australia, aflatoxins occur in peanut by-products and in maize and sorghum if the grain is moist when stored. Zearalenone is found in maize and in sorghum and wheat in wetter regions. Nivalenol and deoxynivalenol are found in maize and wheat but at concentrations that rarely affect pigs, with chickens and cattle being even more tolerant. Other mycotoxins including cyclopiazonic acid, T-2 toxin, cytochalasins and tenuazonic acid are produced by Australian fungi in culture but are not found to be significant grain contaminants. Extremely mouldy sorghum containing Alternaria and Fusarium mycotoxins decreased feed conversion in pigs and chickens by up to 14%. However, E moniliforme- and Diplodia maydis-infected maize produced only slight reductions in feed intake by pigs and Ustilago- infected barley produced no ill effects. Use of these grains would substantially increase profits if the grain can be purchased cheaply.

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Weedy Sporobolus grasses have low palatability for livestock, with infestations reducing land condition and pastoral productivity. Control and containment options are available, but the cost of weed control is high relative to the extra return from livestock, thus, limiting private investment. This paper outlines a process for analysing the economic consequences of alternative management options for weedy Sporobolus grasses. This process is applicable to other weeds and other pastoral degradation or development issues. Using a case study property, three scenarios were developed. Each scenario compared two alternative management options and was analysed using discounted cash flow analysis. Two of the scenarios were based on infested properties and one scenario was based on a currently uninfested property but highly likely to become infested without active containment measures preventing weed seed transport and seedling establishment. The analysis highlighted why particular weedy Sporobolus grass management options may not be financially feasible for the landholder with the infestation. However, at the regional scale, the management options may be highly worthwhile due to a reduction in weed seed movement and new weed invasions. Therefore, to encourage investment by landholders in weedy Sporobolus grass management the investment of public money on behalf of landholders with non-infested properties should be considered.

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In dryland cotton cropping systems, the main weeds and effectiveness of management practices were identified, and the economic impact of weeds was estimated using information collected in a postal and a field survey of Southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Forty-eight completed questionnaires were returned, and 32 paddocks were monitored in early and late summer for weed species and density. The main problem weeds were bladder ketmia (Hibiscus trionum), common sowthistle (Sonchus oleraceus), barnyard grasses (Echinochloa spp.), liverseed grass (Urochloa panicoides) and black bindweed (Fallopia convolvulus), but the relative importance of these differed with crops, fallows and crop rotations. The weed flora was diverse with 54 genera identified in the field survey. Control of weed growth in rotational crops and fallows depended largely on herbicides, particularly glyphosate in fallow and atrazine in sorghum, although effective control was not consistently achieved. Weed control in dryland cotton involved numerous combinations of selective herbicides, several non-selective herbicides, inter-row cultivation and some manual chipping. Despite this, residual weeds were found at 38-59% of initial densities in about 3-quarters of the survey paddocks. The on-farm financial costs of weeds ranged from $148 to 224/ha.year depending on the rotation, resulting in an estimated annual economic cost of $19.6 million. The approach of managing weed populations across the whole cropping system needs wider adoption to reduce the weed pressure in dryland cotton and the economic impact of weeds in the long term. Strategies that optimise herbicide performance and minimise return of weed seed to the soil are needed. Data from the surveys provide direction for research to improve weed management in this cropping system. The economic framework provides a valuable measure of evaluating likely future returns from technologies or weed management improvements.

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There has been recent interest in determining the upper limits to the feasibility of weed eradication. Although a number of disparate factors determine the success of an eradication program, ultimately eradication feasibility must be viewed in the context of the amount of investment that can be made. The latter should reflect the hazard posed by an invasion, with greater investment justified by greater threats. In simplest terms, the effort (and hence investment) to achieve weed eradication comprises the detection effort required to delimit an invasion plus the search and control effort required to prevent reproduction until extirpation occurs over the entire infested area. The difficulty of estimating the required investment at the commencement of a weed eradication program (as well as during periodic reviews) is a serious problem. Bioeconomics show promise in determining the optimal approach to managing weed invasions, notwithstanding ongoing difficulties in estimating the costs and benefits of eradication and alternative invasion management strategies. A flexible approach to the management of weed invasions is needed, allowing for the adoption of another strategy when it becomes clear that the probability of eradication is low, owing to resourcing or intractable technical issues. Whether the considerable progress that has been achieved towards eradication of the once massive witchweed invasion can be duplicated for other weeds of agricultural systems will depend to a large extent upon investment (. $250 million over 50 yr in this instance). Weeds of natural ecosystems seem destined to remain more difficult eradication targets for a variety of reasons, including higher impedance to eradication, more difficulty in valuing the benefits arising from eradication, and possibly less willingness to pay from society at large.

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The present study set out to test the hypothesis through field and simulation studies that the incorporation of short-term summer legumes, particularly annual legume lablab (Lablab purpureus cv. Highworth), in a fallow-wheat cropping system will improve the overall economic and environmental benefits in south-west Queensland. Replicated, large plot experiments were established at five commercial properties by using their machineries, and two smaller plot experiments were established at two intensively researched sites (Roma and St George). A detailed study on various other biennial and perennial summer forage legumes in rotation with wheat and influenced by phosphorus (P) supply (10 and 40 kg P/ha) was also carried out at the two research sites. The other legumes were lucerne (Medicago sativa), butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea) and burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum). After legumes, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) was sown into the legume stubble. The annual lablab produced the highest forage yield, whereas germination, establishment and production of other biennial and perennial legumes were poor, particularly in the red soil at St George. At the commercial sites, only lablab-wheat rotations were experimented, with an increased supply of P in subsurface soil (20 kg P/ha). The lablab grown at the commercial sites yielded between 3 and 6 t/ha forage yield over 2-3 month periods, whereas the following wheat crop with no applied fertiliser yielded between 0.5 to 2.5 t/ha. The wheat following lablab yielded 30% less, on average, than the wheat in a fallow plot, and the profitability of wheat following lablab was slightly higher than that of the wheat following fallow because of greater costs associated with fallow management. The profitability of the lablab-wheat phase was determined after accounting for the input costs and additional costs associated with the management of fallow and in-crop herbicide applications for a fallow-wheat system. The economic and environmental benefits of forage lablab and wheat cropping were also assessed through simulations over a long-term climatic pattern by using economic (PreCAPS) and biophysical (Agricultural Production Systems Simulation, APSIM) decision support models. Analysis of the long-term rainfall pattern (70% in summer and 30% in winter) and simulation studies indicated that ~50% time a wheat crop would not be planted or would fail to produce a profitable crop (grain yield less than 1 t/ha) because of less and unreliable rainfall in winter. Whereas forage lablab in summer would produce a profitable crop, with a forage yield of more than 3 t/ha, ~90% times. Only 14 wheat crops (of 26 growing seasons, i.e. 54%) were profitable, compared with 22 forage lablab (of 25 seasons, i.e. 90%). An opportunistic double-cropping of lablab in summer and wheat in winter is also viable and profitable in 50% of the years. Simulation studies also indicated that an opportunistic lablab-wheat cropping can reduce the potential runoff+drainage by more than 40% in the Roma region, leading to improved economic and environmental benefits.

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The present review identifies various constraints relating to poor adoption of ley-pastures in south-west Queensland, and suggests changes in research, development and extension efforts for improved adoption. The constraints include biophysical, economic and social constraints. In terms of biophysical constraints, first, shallower soil profiles with subsoil constraints (salt and sodicity), unpredictable rainfall, drier conditions with higher soil temperature and evaporative demand in summer, and frost and subzero temperature in winter, frequently result in a failure of established, or establishing, pastures. Second, there are limited options for legumes in a ley-pasture, with the legumes currently being mostly winter-active legumes such as lucerne and medics. Winter-active legumes are ineffective in improving soil conditions in a region with summer-dominant rainfall. Third, most grain growers are reluctant to include grasses in their ley-pasture mix, which can be uneconomical for various reasons, including nitrogen immobilisation, carryover of cereal diseases and depressed yields of the following cereal crops. Fourth, a severe depletion of soil water following perennial ley-pastures (grass + legumes or lucerne) can reduce the yields of subsequent crops for several seasons, and the practice of longer fallows to increase soil water storage may be uneconomical and damaging to the environment. Economic assessments of integrating medium- to long-term ley-pastures into cropping regions are generally less attractive because of reduced capital flow, increased capital investment, economic loss associated with establishment and termination phases of ley-pastures, and lost opportunities for cropping in a favourable season. Income from livestock on ley-pastures and soil productivity gains to subsequent crops in rotation may not be comparable to cropping when grain prices are high. However, the economic benefits of ley-pastures may be underestimated, because of unaccounted environmental benefits such as enhanced water use, and reduced soil erosion from summer-dominant rainfall, and therefore, this requires further investigation. In terms of social constraints, the risk of poor and unreliable establishment and persistence, uncertainties in economic and environmental benefits, the complicated process of changing from crop to ley-pastures and vice versa, and the additional labour and management requirements of livestock, present growers socially unattractive and complex decision-making processes for considering adoption of an existing medium- to long-term ley-pasture technology. It is essential that research, development and extension efforts should consider that new ley-pasture options, such as incorporation of a short-term summer forage legume, need to be less risky in establishment, productive in a region with prevailing biophysical constraints, economically viable, less complex and highly flexible in the change-over processes, and socially attractive to growers for adoption in south-west Queensland.

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In Australia, the development of rangelands has led to steady gains in pastoral productivity through more intensive and widespread land use (Stokes et al., 2006). Opportunities to benefit from intensification exist on large properties with relatively poor water and fencing infrastructure development, resulting in uneven utilisation of available forage (Ash et al.,2006). The objective of this study is to value expected economic gains from carrying out property improvements on a beef property located in Northern Australia.

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The economic performance of a terminal crossbreeding system based on Brahman cows and a tropically adapted composite herd were compared to a straightbred Brahman herd. All systems were targeted to meet specifications of the grass-finished Japanese market. The production system modelled represented a typical individual central Queensland integrated breeding/finishing enterprise or a northern Australian vertically integrated enterprise with separate breeding and finishing properties. Due mainly to a reduced age of turnoff of Crossbred and Composite sale animals and an improved weaning rate in the Composite herd, Crossbred and Composite herds returned a gross margin of $7 and $24 per Adult Equivalent (AE) respectively above that of the Brahman herd. The benefits of changing 25% of the existing 85% of Brahmans in the northern Australian herd to either Crossbreds or Composites over a 10-year period were also examined. With no premium for carcass quality in Crossbred and Composite sale animals, annual benefits were $16 M and $61 M for Crossbreds and Composites in 2013. The cumulative Present Value (PV) of this shift over the 10-year period was $88 M and $342 M respectively, discounted at 7%. When a 5c per kg premium for carcass quality was included, differences in annual benefits rose to $30 M and $75 M and cumulative PVs to $168 M and $421 M for Crossbreds and Composites respectively.

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This project aims to develop integrated irrigation and nutrition management strategies under limited water for irrigators currently investing in overhead irrigation systems (CPLM) to minimize the learning lag in their use and optimize crop and economic performance.

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We present a participatory modelling framework that integrates information from interviews and discussions with farmers and consultants, with dynamic bio-economic models to answer complex questions on the allocation of limited resources at the farm business level. Interviews and discussions with farmers were used to: describe the farm business; identify relevant research questions; identify potential solutions; and discuss and learn from the whole-farm simulations. The simulations are done using a whole-farm, multi-field configuration of APSIM (APSFarm). APSFarm results were validated against farmers' experience. Once the model was accepted by the participating farmers as a fair representation of their farm business, the model was used to explore changes in the tactical or strategic management of the farm and results were then discussed to identify feasible options for improvement. Here we describe the modelling framework and present an example of the application of integrative whole farm system tools to answer relevant questions from an irrigated farm business case study near Dalby (151.27E - 27.17S), Queensland, Australia. Results indicated that even though cotton crops generates more farm income per hectare a more diversified rotation with less cotton would be relatively more profitable, with no increase in risk, as a more cotton dominated traditional rotation. Results are discussed in terms of the benefits and constraints from developing and applying more integrative approaches to represent farm businesses and their management in participatory research projects with the aim of designing more profitable and sustainable irrigated farming systems.

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Mikania micrantha, Kunth. H.B.K (Asteraceae) or mile-a-minute is a weed of Neotropical origin in 17 Pacific Island countries. It is becoming increasingly regarded as an invasive weed in Papua New Guinea and is now the focus of an Australian Government-funded biological control program. As part of the program, growth rates, distribution and physical and socia-economic impacts were studied to obtain baseline data and to assist with the field release of biological control agents. Through public awareness campaigns and dedicated surveys, mikania has been reported in most lowland provinces. It is particularly widespread in East New Britain and West New Britain Province. In field trials, mikania grew more than 1 metre per month in open sunny areas but slightly slower when growing under cocoa. The weed invades a wide range of land types, impacting on plantations and food gardens, smothering pawpaw, young cocoa, banana, taro, young oil palms and ornamental plants. In socia-economic surveys, mikania was found to have severe impacts on crop production and income generated through reduced yields and high weeding costs. These studies suggest that there would be substantial benefits to the community if biological control of mikania is successful.

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The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 2,225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland coast. Recent research has identified that poor water quality is having negative impacts on the GBR (Haynes et al. 2007). The Fitzroy Basin covers 143,000 km² and is the largest catchment draining into the GBR as well as being one of the largest catchments in Australia (Karfs et al. 2009). The Burdekin Catchment is the second largest catchment entering into the GBR and covers 133,432 km².The prime determinant for the changes in water quality entering into the GBR have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al. 2009). Extensive beef production contributes over $1 billion dollars to the national economy annually and employs over 9000 people, many in rural communities (Gordon 2007). ‘Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments’ was a joint project with the Fitzroy Basin Association and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation. The project was formed under the federally funded Caring For Our Country and the Reef Rescue programs. The project objectives were as follows; * Quantifying the costs of over-utilising available pasture and the resulting sediment leaving a representative farm for four of the major land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments and identifying economically optimal pasture utilisation rates * Estimating the cost of reducing pasture utilisation rates below the determined optimal * Using this information, guide the selection of appropriate tools to achieve reduced utilisation rates e.g. extension process versus incentive payments or a combination of both * Model the biophysical and economic impacts of altering grazing systems to restore land condition e.g. from C condition to B condition for four land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments.

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The Fitzroy Basin is the second largest catchment area in Australia covering 143,00 km² and is the largest catchment for the Great Barrier Reef lagoon (Karfs et al., 2009). The Great Barrier Reef is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland Coast (Haynes et al., 2007). The prime determinant for the changes in water quality have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al., 2009). In response to the depletion of water quality in the reef, in 2003 a Reef Water Quality plan was developed by the Australian and Queensland governments. The plan targets as a priority sediment contributions from grazing cattle in high risk catchments (The State of Queensland and Commonwealth of Australia, 2003). The economic incentive strategy designed includes analysing the costs and benefits of best management practice that will lead to improved water quality (The State of Queensland and Commonwealth of Australia, 2003).