The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian example.

This paper examines the idea that plasticity in farm management introduces resilience to change and allows farm businesses to perform when operating in highly variable environments. We also argue for the need to develop and apply more integrative assessments of farm performance that combine the use of modelling tools with deliberative processes involving farmers and researchers in a co-learning process, to more effectively identify and implement more productive and resilient farm businesses. In a plastic farming system, farm management is highly contingent on environmental conditions. In plastic farming systems farm managers constantly vary crops and inputs based on the availability of limited and variable resources (e.g. land, water, finances, labour, machinery, etc.), and signals from its operating environment (e.g. climate, markets), with the objective of maximising a number of, often competing, objectives (e.g. maximise profits, minimise risks, etc.). In contrast in more rigid farming systems farm management is more calendar driven and relatively fixed sequences of crops are regularly followed over time and across the farm. Here we describe the application of a whole farm simulation model to (i) compare, in silico, the sensitivity of two farming systems designs of contrasting levels of plasticity, operating in two contrasting environments, when exposed to a stressor in the form of climate change scenarios;(ii) investigate the presence of interactions and feedbacks at the field and farm levels capable of modifying the intensity and direction of the responses to climate signals; and (iii) discuss the need for the development and application of more integrative assessments in the analysis of impacts and adaptation options to climate change. In both environments, the more plastic farm management strategy had higher median profits and was less risky for the baseline and less intensive climate change scenarios (2030). However, for the more severe climate change scenarios (2070), the benefit of plastic strategies tended to disappear. These results suggest that, to a point, farming systems having higher levels of plasticity would enable farmers to more effectively respond to climate shifts, thus ensuring the economic viability of the farm business. Though, as the intensity of the stress increases (e.g. 2070 climate change scenario) more significant changes in the farming system might be required to adapt. We also found that in the case studies analysed here, most of the impacts from the climate change scenarios on farm profit and economic risk originated from important reductions in cropping intensity and changes in crop mix rather than from changes in the yields of individual crops. Changes in cropping intensity and crop mix were explained by the combination of reductions in the number of sowing opportunities around critical times in the cropping calendar, and to operational constraints at the whole farm level i.e. limited work capacity in an environment having fewer and more concentrated sowing opportunities. This indicates that indirect impacts from shifts in climate on farm operations can be more important than direct impacts from climate on the yield of individual crops. The results suggest that due to the complexity of farm businesses, impact assessments and opportunities for adaptation to climate change might also need to be pursued at higher integration levels than the crop or the field. We conclude that plasticity can be a desirable characteristic in farming systems operating in highly variable environments, and that integrated whole farm systems analyses of impacts and adaptation to climate change are required to identify important interactions between farm management decision rules, availability of resources, and farmer's preference.

The host range of three biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus (Lamarck) (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntia spp. (Cactaceae) in Australia

The host range of two newly imported biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntia spp. were investigated. A third biotype (imbricata) of D. tomentosus previously released in Australia to control C. imbricata was also screened to determine if it will feed on other species of Cylindropuntia occurring in Australia. Efficacy trials were conducted to evaluate the ability of the biotypes to retard the growth or kill those plant species supporting development of four or more individuals in the host test trials. The host range of the three biotypes of D. tomentosus was restricted to the genus Cylindropuntia. However, the biotypes showed varying degrees of specificity within this genus. The imbricata biotype was the only biotype to develop on Australian C. rosea provenances, albeit with a range of developmental success on all C. rosea provenances tested. The Spanish provenance supported the highest development success followed by Grawin (NSW), Lorne Station (NSW) while the least preferred was the Mexican provenance. The rosea and cholla biotypes were unsuitable candidates to control C. rosea in Australia. However, the efficacy trials showed that the cholla biotype had a high impact on four of the eight naturalised Cylindropuntia species in Australia. This biotype established rapidly and the sustained feeding of one fecund female and her progeny killed potted plants of C. imbricata and C. fulgida at week 18. This biotype has the potential to be an effective agent against C. fulgida, C. imbricata, C. kleiniae and C. tunicata and, as a consequence, an application seeking its release in Australia has been lodged.

Evolutionary relationships between bat coronaviruses and their hosts

Recent studies have suggested that bats are the natural reservoir of a range of coronaviruses (CoVs), and that rhinolophid bats harbor viruses closely related to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) CoV, which caused an outbreak of respiratory illness in humans during 2002-2003. We examined the evolutionary relationships between bat CoVs and their hosts by using sequence data of the virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase gene and the bat cytochrome b gene. Phylogenetic analyses showed multiple incongruent associations between the phylogenies of rhinolophid bats and their CoVs, which suggested that host shifts have occurred in the recent evolutionary history of this group. These shifts may be due to either virus biologic traits or host behavioral traits. This finding has implications for the emergence of SARS and for the potential future emergence of SARS-CoVs or related viruses.

Development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms.

The recent 8th Australasian plant virology workshop in Rotorua, New Zealand, discussed the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms. Key points of discussion included: (i) the purpose of such a database; (ii) who would benefit from the information in a database; (iii) the scope of a database and its associated collections; (iv) database information and format; and (v) potential funding of such a database. From the workshop and further research, we conclude that the preservation and verification of specimens within the collections and the development of a New Zealand database of plant virus and virus-like organisms is essential. Such a collection will help to fulfil statutory requirements in New Zealand and assist in fulfilling international obligations under the International Plant Protection Convention. Sustaining such a database will assist New Zealand virologists and statutory bodies to undertake scientifically sound research. Establishing reliable records and an interactive database will help to ensure accurate and timely diagnoses of diseases caused by plant viruses and virus-like organisms. Detection of new incursions and their diagnosis will be further enhanced by the use of such reference collections and their associated database. Connecting and associating this information to similar overseas databases would assist international collaborations and allow access to the latest taxonomic and diagnostic resources. Associated scientists working in the areas of plant breeding, export phytosanitary assurance and in the area of the conservation estate would also benefit from access to verified specimens of plant viruses and virus-like organisms. We conclude that funding of a New Zealand database of virus and virus-like organisms and its associated collections should be based partly on Crown funds, as it is a nationally significant biological resource.