Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

A market assessment and evaluation of structural roundwood products from hardwood pulp plantations.

Roundwood structures have always been used for temporary and low cost shelters and other fleeting structures. Novel concepts for the use of plantation hardwoods in roundwood form in construction were developed and circulated along with an electronic questionnaire to stakeholders representing growers, designers and users of hardwood. Responses indicate that there is a high level of interest in developing products from the emerging small roundwood resource and a detailed program of research was supported and recommended by the majority of participants in the survey. These results indicate a high level of support for further investigation into the use of plantation hardwood for roundwood components. Respondents representing a wide range of stakeholders have indicated that to gain benefit from a detailed project they would require solutions for connection systems and protection from pests and weathering, indications of cost and assurance of ongoing supply for niche applications, data for strength, acoustic dampening and thermal insulation properties, acceptance by regulatory authorities and training for on-site construction.

A simple, one-tube assay for the simultaneous detection and diagnosis of ten Australian poultry Eimeria

Coccidiosis is a costly worldwide enteric disease of chickens caused by parasites of the genus Eimeria. At present, there are seven described species that occur globally and a further three undescribed, operational taxonomic units (OTUs X, Y, and Z) that are known to infect chickens from Australia. Species of Eimeria have both overlapping morphology and pathology and frequently occur as mixed-species infections. This makes definitive diagnosis with currently available tests difficult and, to date, there is no test for the detection of the three OTUs. This paper describes the development of a PCR-based assay that is capable of detecting all ten species of Eimeria, including OTUs X, Y, and Z in field samples. The assay is based on a single set of generic primers that amplifies a single diagnostic fragment from the mitochondrial genome of each species. This one-tube assay is simple, low-cost, and has the capacity to be high throughput. It will therefore be of great benefit to the poultry industry for Eimeria detection and control, and the confirmation of identity and purity of vaccine strains.

Estimating production costs and profitability of strawberry genotypes in southeast Queensland using plant traits

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry (Fragaria ×ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into new genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions has been investigated. The study adapted knowledge of traits and the production and marketing system to assess the economic impact (gross margin) of new cultivars on the system, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. Genotypes varied widely in their effect on gross margin, from 48% above to 10% below the base value. The advantage of a new genotype was also affected by the proportion of total area allocated to the new genotype. The largest difference in gross margin between that at optimum allocation (8% increase in gross margin) and an all of industry allocation (20% decrease in gross margin) of area to the genotype was 28%. While in other cases the all of industry allocation was also the optimum allocation, with one genotype giving a 48% benefit in gross margin.

Frequency and precision of aerial surveys for kangaroo management

The appropriate frequency and precision for surveys of wildlife populations represent a trade-off between survey cost and the risk of making suboptimal management decisions because of poor survey data. The commercial harvest of kangaroos is primarily regulated through annual quotas set as proportions of absolute estimates of population size. Stochastic models were used to explore the effects of varying precision, survey frequency and harvest rate on the risk of quasiextinction for an arid-zone and a more mesic-zone kangaroo population. Quasiextinction probability increases in a sigmoidal fashion as survey frequency is reduced. The risk is greater in more arid regions and is highly sensitive to harvest rate. An appropriate management regime involves regular surveys in the major harvest areas where harvest rate can be set close to the maximum sustained yield. Outside these areas, survey frequency can be reduced in relatively mesic areas and reduced in arid regions when combined with lowered harvest rates. Relative to other factors, quasiextinction risk is only affected by survey precision (standard error/mean × 100) when it is >50%, partly reflecting the safety of the strategy of harvesting a proportion of a population estimate.

Influence of plant traits on production costs and profitability of strawberry in southeast Queensland.

In Queensland the subtropical strawberry ( Fragaria * ananassa) breeding program aims to combine traits into novel genotypes that increase production efficiency. The contribution of individual plant traits to cost and income under subtropical Queensland conditions was investigated, with the overall goal of improving the profitability of the industry through the release of new strawberry cultivars. The study involved specifying the production and marketing system using three cultivars of strawberry that are currently widely grown annually in southeast Queensland, developing methods to assess the economic impact of changes to the system, and identifying plant traits that influence outcomes from the system. From May through September P (price; $ punnet -1), V (monthly mass; tonne of fruit on the market) and M (calendar month; i.e. May=5) were found to be related ( r2=0.92) by the function (SE) P=4.741(0.469)-0.001630(0.0005) V-0.226(0.102) M using data from 2006 to 2010 for the Brisbane central market. Both income and cost elements in the gross margin were subject to sensitivity analysis. 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' 'Groups' of 'Activities' were the major contributors to variable costs (each >20%) in the gross margin analysis. Within the 'Harvesting Group', the 'Picking Activity' contributed most (>80%) with the trait 'display of fruit' having the greatest (33%) influence on the cost of the 'Picking Activity'. Within the 'Handling/Packing Group', the 'Packing Activity' contributed 50% of costs with the traits 'fruit shape', 'fruit size variation' and 'resistance to bruising' having the greatest (12-62%) influence on the cost of the 'Packing Activity'. Non-plant items (e.g. carton purchases) made up the other 50% of the costs within the 'Handling/Packing Group'. When any of the individual traits in the 'Harvesting' and 'Handling/Packing' groups were changed by one unit (on a 1-9 scale) the gross margin changed by up to 1%. Increasing yield increased the gross margin to a maximum (15% above present) at 1320 g plant -1 (94% above present). A 10% redistribution of total yield from September to May increased the gross margin by 23%. Increasing fruit size increased gross margin: a 75% increase in fruit size (to ~30 g) produced a 22% increase in the gross margin. The modified gross margin analysis developed in this study allowed simultaneous estimation of the gross margin for the producer and gross value of the industry. These parameters sometimes move in opposite directions.

Estimating winter crop area across seasons and regions using time-sequential MODIS imagery.

The wheat grain industry is Australia's second largest agricultural export commodity. There is an increasing demand for accurate, objective and near real-time crop production information by industry. The advent of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite platform has augmented the capability of satellite-based applications to capture reflectance over large areas at acceptable pixel scale, cost and accuracy. The use of multi-temporal MODIS-enhanced vegetation index (EVI) imagery to determine crop area was investigated in this article. Here the rigour of the harmonic analysis of time-series (HANTS) and early-season metric approaches was assessed when extrapolating over the entire Queensland (QLD) cropping region for the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Early-season crop area estimates, at least 4 months before harvest, produced high accuracy at pixel and regional scales with percent errors of -8.6% and -26% for the 2005 and 2006 seasons, respectively. In discriminating among crops at pixel and regional scale, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy. The errors for specific area estimates for wheat, barley and chickpea were 9.9%, -5.2% and 10.9% (for 2005) and -2.8%, -78% and 64% (for 2006), respectively. Area estimates of total winter crop, wheat, barley and chickpea resulted in coefficient of determination (R(2)) values of 0.92, 0.89, 0.82 and 0.52, when contrasted against the actual shire-scale data. A significantly high coefficient of determination (0.87) was achieved for total winter crop area estimates in August across all shires for the 2006 season. Furthermore, the HANTS approach showed high accuracy in discriminating cropping area from non-cropping area and highlighted the need for accurate and up-to-date land use maps. The extrapolability of these approaches to determine total and specific winter crop area estimates, well before flowering, showed good utility across larger areas and seasons. Hence, it is envisaged that this technology might be transferable to different regions across Australia.

Coordination and plasticity in leaf anatomical traits of invasive and native vine species

Premise of the study: Plant invasiveness can be promoted by higher values of adaptive traits (e.g., photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation), greater plasticity and coordination of these traits, and by higher and positive relative influence of these functionalities on fitness, such as increasing reproductive output. However, the data set for this premise rarely includes linkages between epidermal–stomatal traits, leaf internal anatomy, and physiological performance.• Methods: Three ecological pairs of invasive vs. noninvasive (native) woody vine species of South-East Queensland, Australia were investigated for trait differences in leaf morphology and anatomy under varying light intensity. The linkages of these traits with physiological performance (e.g., water-use efficiency, photosynthesis, and leaf construction cost) and plant adaptive traits of specific leaf area, biomass, and relative growth rates were also explored.• Key results: Except for stomatal size, mean leaf anatomical traits differed significantly between the two groups. Plasticity of traits and, to a very limited extent, their phenotypic integration were higher in the invasive relative to the native species. ANOVA, ordination, and analysis of similarity suggest that for leaf morphology and anatomy, the three functional strategies contribute to the differences between the two groups in the order phenotypic plasticity > trait means > phenotypic integration.• Conclusions: The linkages demonstrated in the study between stomatal complex/gross anatomy and physiology are scarce in the ecological literature of plant invasiveness, but the findings suggest that leaf anatomical traits need to be considered routinely as part of weed species assessment and in the worldwide leaf economic spectrum.