Quantifying the effects of climate change and water abstraction on a population of barramundi (Lates calcarifer), a diadromous estuarine finfish

Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.

Phylodynamic evidence of the migration of turnip mosaic potyvirus from Europe to Australia and New Zealand

Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) is a potyvirus that is transmitted by aphids and infects a wide range of plant species. We investigated the evolution of this pathogen by collecting 32 isolates of TuMV, mostly from Brassicaceae plants, in Australia and New Zealand. We performed a variety of sequence-based phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of the complete genomic sequences and of three non-recombinogenic regions of those sequences. The substitution rates, divergence times and phylogeographical patterns of the virus populations were estimated. Six inter- and seven intralineage recombination-type patterns were found in the genomes of the Australian and New Zealand isolates, and all were novel. Only one recombination-type pattern has been found in both countries. The Australian and New Zealand populations were genetically different, and were different from the European and Asian populations. Our Bayesian coalescent analyses, based on a combination of novel and published sequence data from three nonrecombinogenic protein-encoding regions, showed that TuMV probably started to migrate from Europe to Australia and New Zealand more than 80 years ago, and that distinct populations arose as a result of evolutionary drivers such as recombination. The basal-B2 subpopulation in Australia and New Zealand seems to be older than those of the world-B2 and -B3 populations. To our knowledge, our study presents the first population genetic analysis of TuMV in Australia and New Zealand. We have shown that the time of migration of TuMV correlates well with the establishment of agriculture and migration of Europeans to these countries.