Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Structuring of Indo-Pacific fish assemblages along the mangrove-seagrass continuum

Indo-Pacific mangrove swamps and seagrass beds are commonly located in close proximity to each other, often creating complex ecosystems linked by biological and physical processes. Although they are thought to provide important nursery habitats for fish, only limited information exists about their usage by fish outside of estuaries. The present study investigated fish assemblages in non-estuarine intertidal habitats where mangroves and seagrass overlap (the mangrove-seagrass continuum). Three habitats (mangrove, mangrove edge, seagrass) were sampled at 4 sites of the Wakatobi Marine National Park, Indonesia, using underwater visual census. Ninety-one species of fish were observed at a mean density of 130.1 +/- 37.2 ind. 1000 m(-2). Predatory fish (fish that feed on invertebrates and/or fish) were the most dominant feeding groups in the mangroves, whilst omnivores dominated on the mangrove edge and in the seagrass. Although the habitats along the mangrove-seagrass continuum were observed to be important for many fish, only 22 of the 942 coral reef species known within the area utilised mangroves as nursery habitat and only 15 utilised seagrass. Despite finding evidence that nursery grounds in mangroves and seagrass may not directly support high coral reef fish diversity, many of the coral reef nursery species found in this study are likely to be key herbivores or apex predators as adult fish on local coral reefs, and thus highly important to local fisheries. Although mangroves are not permanently inundated by the tide, this study highlights their importance as fish habitats, which at high tide support a greater abundance of fish than seagrass beds. In the light of the high rate of destruction of these habitats, their role in supporting fish assemblages requires consideration in marine resource management programs.

Detection and use of QTL for complex traits in multiple environments.

QTL mapping methods for complex traits are challenged by new developments in marker technology, phenotyping platforms, and breeding methods. In meeting these challenges, QTL mapping approaches will need to also acknowledge the central roles of QTL by environment interactions (QEI) and QTL by trait interactions in the expression of complex traits like yield. This paper presents an overview of mixed model QTL methodology that is suitable for many types of populations and that allows predictive modeling of QEI, both for environmental and developmental gradients. Attention is also given to multi-trait QTL models which are essential to interpret the genetic basis of trait correlations. Biophysical (crop growth) model simulations are proposed as a complement to statistical QTL mapping for the interpretation of the nature of QEI and to investigate better methods for the dissection of complex traits into component traits and their genetic controls.

Using harvest statistics to monitor temporal variation in kangaroo density and harvest rate

Management of the commercial harvest of kangaroos relies on quotas set annually as a proportion of regular estimates of population size. Surveys to generate these estimates are expensive and, in the larger states, logistically difficult; a cheaper alternative is desirable. Rainfall is a disappointingly poor predictor of kangaroo rate of increase in many areas, but harvest statistics (sex ratio, carcass weight, skin size and animals shot per unit time) potentially offer cost-effective indirect monitoring of population abundance (and therefore trend) and status (i.e. under-or overharvest). Furthermore, because harvest data are collected continuously and throughout the harvested areas, they offer the promise of more intensive and more representative coverage of harvest areas than aerial surveys do. To be useful, harvest statistics would need to have a close and known relationship with either population size or harvest rate. We assessed this using longterm (11-22 years) data for three kangaroo species (Macropus rufus, M. giganteus and M. fuliginosus) and common wallaroos (M. robustus) across South Australia, New South Wales and Queensland. Regional variation in kangaroo body size, population composition, shooter efficiency and selectivity required separate analyses in different regions. Two approaches were taken. First, monthly harvest statistics were modelled as a function of a number of explanatory variables, including kangaroo density, harvest rate and rainfall. Second, density and harvest rate were modelled as a function of harvest statistics. Both approaches incorporated a correlated error structure. Many but not all regions had relationships with sufficient precision to be useful for indirect monitoring. However, there was no single relationship that could be applied across an entire state or across species. Combined with rainfall-driven population models and applied at a regional level, these relationships could be used to reduce the frequency of aerial surveys without compromising decisions about harvest management.

Stem cankers on sunflower (Helianthus annuus) in Australia reveal a complex of pathogenic Diaporthe (Phomopsis) species.

The identification of Diaporthe (anamorph Phomopsis) species associated with stem canker of sunflower (Helianthus annuus) in Australia was studied using morphology, DNA sequence analysis and pathology. Phylogenetic analysis revealed three clades that did not correspond with known taxa, and these are believed to represent novel species. Diaporthe gulyae sp. nov. is described for isolates that caused a severe stem canker, specifically pale brown to dark brown, irregularly shaped lesions centred at the stem nodes with pith deterioration and mid-stem lodging. This pathogenicity of D. gulyae was confirmed by satisfying Koch's Postulates. These symptoms are almost identical to those of sunflower stem canker caused by D. helianthi that can cause yield reductions of up to 40% in Europe and the USA, although it has not been found in Australia. We show that there has been broad misapplication of the name D. helianthi to many isolates of Diaporthe ( Phomopsis) found causing, or associated with, stem cankers on sunflower. In GenBank, a number of isolates had been identified as D. helianthi, which were accommodated in several clades by molecular phylogenetic analysis. Two less damaging species, D. kochmanii sp. nov. and D. kongii sp. nov., are also described from cankers on sunflower in Australia.

The Colletotrichum boninense species complex

Although only recently described, Colletotrichum boninense is well established in literature as an anthracnose pathogen or endophyte of a diverse range of host plants worldwide. It is especially prominent on members of Amaryllidaceae, Orchidaceae, Proteaceae and Solanaceae. Reports from literature and preliminary studies using ITS sequence data indicated that C. boninense represents a species complex. A multilocus molecular phylogenetic analysis (ITS, ACT, TUB2, CHS-1, GAPDH, HIS3, CAL) of 86 strains previously identified as C. boninense and other related strains revealed 18 clades. These clades are recognised here as separate species, including C. boninense s. str., C. hippeastri, C. karstii and 12 previously undescribed species, C. annellatum, C. beeveri, C. brassicicola, C. brasiliense, C. colombiense, C. constrictum, C. cymbidiicola, C. dacrycarpi, C. novae-zelandiae, C. oncidii, C. parsonsiae and C. torulosum. Seven of the new species are only known from New Zealand, perhaps reflecting a sampling bias. The new combination C. phyllanthi was made, and C. dracaenae Petch was epitypified and the name replaced with C. petchii. Typical for species of the C. boninense species complex are the conidiogenous cells with rather prominent periclinal thickening that also sometimes extend to form a new conidiogenous locus or annellations as well as conidia that have a prominent basal scar. Many species in the C. boninense complex form teleomorphs in culture. TAXONOMIC NOVELTIES: New combination - Colletotrichum phyllanthi (H. Surendranath Pai) Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous. Name replacement - C. petchii Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous. New species - C. annellatum Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. beeveri Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. brassicicola Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. brasiliense Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous & Massola, C. colombiense Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, C. constrictum Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. cymbidiicola Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. dacrycarpi Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. novae-zelandiae Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. oncidii Damm, P.F. Cannon & Crous, C. parsonsiae Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir, C. torulosum Damm, P.F. Cannon, Crous, P.R. Johnst. & B. Weir. Typifications: Epitypifications - C. dracaenae Petch.

A phylogenetic and taxonomic re-evaluation of the Bipolaris - Cochliobolus - Curvularia Complex

Three genera, Cochliobolus, Bipolaris and Curvularia form a complex that contains many plant pathogens, mostly on grasses (Poaceae) with a worldwide distribution. The taxonomy of this complex is confusing as frequent nomenclatural changes and refinements have occurred. There is no clear morphological boundary between the asexual genera Bipolaris and Curvularia, and some species show intermediate morphology. We investigated this complex based on a set of ex-type cultures and collections from northern Thailand. Combined gene analysis of rDNA ITS (internal transcribed spacer), GPDH (glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase), LSU (large subunit) and EF1-α (translation elongation factor 1-α) shows that this generic complex divides into two groups. Bipolaris and Cochliobolus species clustered in Group 1 along with their type species, whereas Curvularia species (including species named as Bipolaris, Cochliobolus and Curvularia) clustered in Group 2, with its generic type. The nomenclatural conflict in this complex is resolved giving priority to the more commonly used established generic names Bipolaris and Curvularia. Modern descriptions of the genera Bipolaris and Curvularia are provided and species resolved in this study are transferred to one of these genera based on their phylogeny. © 2012 Mushroom Research Foundation.

Soral synapomorphies are significant for the systematics of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex (Ustilaginaceae)

The genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces are a polyphyletic complex of plant pathogenic fungi. The four main morphological characters used to define these genera have been considered homoplasious and not useful for resolving the complex. This study re-evaluates character homology and discusses the use of these characters for defining monophyletic groups recovered from a reconstructed phylogeny using four nuclear loci. Generic delimitation of smut fungi based on their hosts is also discussed as a means for identifying genera within this group. Morphological characters and host specificity can be used to circumscribe genera within the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex.

A review of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex

The fungal genera Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces represent an unresolved complex. Taxa within the complex often possess characters that occur in more than one genus, creating uncertainty for species placement. Previous studies have indicated that the genera cannot be separated based on morphology alone. Here we chronologically review the history of the Ustilago-Sporisorium-Macalpinomyces complex, argue for its resolution and suggest methods to accomplish a stable taxonomy. A combined molecular and morphological approach is required to identify synapomorphic characters that underpin a new classification. Ustilago, Sporisorium and Macalpinomyces require explicit re-description and new genera, based on monophyletic groups, are needed to accommodate taxa that no longer fit the emended descriptions. A resolved classification will end the taxonomic confusion that surrounds generic placement of these smut fungi.

Is Mycoplasma bovis a missing component of the bovine respiratory disease complex in Australia?

Background: Bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC) is a multi-factorial disease in which numerous factors, such as animal management, pathogen exposure and environmental conditions, contribute to the development of acute respiratory illness in feedlot cattle. The role of specific pathogens in the development of BRDC has been difficult to define because of the complex nature of the disease and the presence of implicated bacterial pathogens in the upper respiratory tract of healthy animals. Mycoplasma bovis is an important pathogen of cattle and recognised as a major contributor to cases of mastitis, caseonecrotic bronchopneumonia, arthritis and otitis media. To date, the role of M.bovis in the development of BRDC of Australian feeder cattle has not been investigated. Methods: In this review, the current literature pertaining to the role of M.bovis in BRDC is evaluated. In addition, preliminary data are presented that identify M.bovis as a potential contributor to BRDC in Australian feedlots, which has not been considered previously. Results and Conclusion: The preliminary results demonstrate detection of M.bovis in samples from all feedlots studied. When considered in the context of the reviewed literature, they support the inclusion of M.bovis on the list of pathogens to be considered during investigations into BRDC in Australia. © 2014 Australian Veterinary Association.

Spot form of net blotch resistance in barley is under complex genetic control

Key message: Evaluation of resistance toPyrenophora teresf.maculatain barley breeding populations via association mapping revealed a complex genetic architecture comprising a mixture of major and minor effect genes. Abstract: In the search for stable resistance to spot form of net blotch (Pyrenophora teres f. maculata, SFNB), association mapping was conducted on four independent barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) breeding populations comprising a total of 898 unique elite breeding lines from the Northern Region Barley Breeding Program in Australia for discovery of quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing resistance at seedling and adult plant growth stages. A total of 29 significant QTL were validated across multiple breeding populations, with 22 conferring resistance at both seedling and adult plant growth stages. The remaining 7 QTL conferred resistance at either seedling (2 QTL) or adult plant (5 QTL) growth stages only. These 29 QTL represented 24 unique genomic regions, of which five were found to co-locate with previously identified QTL for SFNB. The results indicated that SFNB resistance is controlled by a large number of QTL varying in effect size with large effects QTL on chromosome 7H. A large proportion of the QTL acted in the same direction for both seedling and adult responses, suggesting that phenotypic selection for SFNB resistance performed at either growth stage could achieve adequate levels of resistance. However, the accumulation of specific resistance alleles on several chromosomes must be considered in molecular breeding selection strategies.

Controlled release of ethylene gas from the ethylene-α-cyclodextrin inclusion complex powder with deliquescent salts

Deliquescent calcium chloride (CaCl2) and magnesium chloride (MgCl2) were investigated for their practical application to release ethylene gas from an ethylene-α-cyclodextrin inclusion complexes (CD IC) powder at relative humidities (RHs) between 11.2 and 93.6 % at 18 °C. The IC powder and deliquescent salts were mixed at a ratio of 1:5, respectively. CaCl2 and MgCl2 started to deliquesce at 32.7 % RH. The IC powder dissolved in the concentrated salt solutions to release ethylene gas. Increasing the RH accelerated the release rate. Maximum release of ethylene gas was achieved after 24 h at 75.5 and 93.6 % RH for both IC powder-deliquescent salts mixture. The deliquescent salts proved to be a simple option for releasing ethylene gas from the IC powder.

Uses of an innovative ethylene-α-cyclodextrin inclusion complex powder for ripening of mango fruit

A novel ethylene-α-cyclodextrin (α-CD) inclusion complex (IC) powder was investigated to ripen Calypso mango fruit. Modulated release of ethylene gas from the IC powder was achieved by admixture with deliquescent salt CaCl2 at RHs of 75.5% and 93.6%. The IC powder was tested in the laboratory and for in-transit ripening of mango fruit over two seasons. In the laboratory experiment, ethylene gas started to release from the IC powder in 2 h and complete release was achieved in 24 h. Assessments of fruit colour and firmness showed that encapsulated ethylene and commercial grade ethylene from pressurised cylinder similarly shortened the ripening time to 9–10 days (after harvest) for treated fruit as compared with 15 days for untreated mango. Mango fruit treated in both ways with ethylene showed more uniform ripening than the control. For the in-transit ripening using the IC powder, ethylene was found to be between 4.9 and 10.5 μL L−1 in the headspace of the truck containers over 48 h. Mango fruit from the treated containers shortened the ripening time by 3–6 days as compared to the untreated control fruit. Thus, the safe and convenient IC powder has demonstrated promise for in-transit fruit ripening.