Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Recent advances in the molecular biology of Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli, causal organism of ratoon stunting disease

Twelve years ago our understanding of ratoon stunting disease (RSD) was confined almost exclusively to diagnosis of the disease and control via farm hygiene, with little understanding of the biology of the interaction between the causal agent (Leifsonia xyli subsp. xyli) and the host plant sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids). Since then, research has focused on developing the molecular tools to dissect L. xyli subsp. xyli, so that better control strategies can be developed to prevent losses from RSD. Within this review, we give a brief overview of the progression in research on L. xyli subsp. xyli and highlight future challenges. After a brief historical background on RSD, we discuss the development of molecular tools such as transformation and transposon mutagenesis and discuss the apparent lack of genetic diversity within the L. xyli subsp. xyli world population. We go on to discuss the sequencing of the genome of L. xyli subsp. xyli, describe the key findings and suggest some future research based on known deficiencies that will capitalise on this tremendous knowledge base to which we now have access.

Standard yet unusual mechanisms of long-distance dispersal: Seed dispersal of Corymbia torelliana by bees

Mellitochory, seed dispersal by bees, has been implicated in long-distance dispersal of the tropical rain forest tree, Corymbia torelliana (Myrtaceae). We examined natural and introduced populations of C. torelliana for 4 years to determine the species of bees that disperse seeds, and the extent and distance of seed dispersal. The mechanism of seed dispersal by bees was also investigated, including fruit traits that promote dispersal, foraging behaviour of bees at fruits, and the fate of seeds. The fruit structure of C. torelliana, with seed presented in a resin reward, is a unique trait that promotes seed dispersal by bees and often results in long-distance dispersal. We discovered that a guild of four species of stingless bees, Trigona carbonaria, T. clypearis, T. sapiens, and T. hockingsi, dispersed seeds of C. torelliana in its natural range. More than half of the nests found within 250 m of fruiting trees had evidence of seed transport. Seeds were transported minimum distances of 20-220 m by bees. Approximately 88% of seeds were dispersed by gravity but almost all fruits retained one or two seeds embedded in resin for bee dispersal. Bee foraging for resin peaked immediately after fruit opening and corresponded to a peak of seed dispersal at the hive. There were strong correlations between numbers of seeds brought in and taken out of each hive by bees (r = 0.753-0.992, P < 0.05), and germination rates were 95 ± 5%. These results showed that bee-transported seeds were effectively dispersed outside of the hive soon after release from fruits. Seed dispersal by bees is a non-standard dispersal mechanism for C. torelliana, as most seeds are dispersed by gravity before bees can enter fruits. However, many C. torelliana seeds are dispersed by bees, since seeds are retained in almost all fruits, and all of these are dispersed by bees.

Differing mechanisms of simple nitrile formation on glucosinolate degradation in Lepidium sativum and Nasturtium officinale seeds.

Glucosinolates are sulphur-containing glycosides found in brassicaceous plants that can be hydrolysed enzymatically by plant myrosinase or non-enzymatically to form primarily isothiocyanates and/or simple nitriles. From a human health perspective, isothiocyanates are quite important because they are major inducers of carcinogen-detoxifying enzymes. Two of the most potent inducers are benzyl isothiocyanate (BITC) present in garden cress (Lepidium sativum), and phenylethyl isothiocyanate (PEITC) present in watercress (Nasturtium officinale). Previous studies on these salad crops have indicated that significant amounts of simple nitriles are produced at the expense of the isothiocyanates. These studies also suggested that nitrile formation may occur by different pathways: (1) under the control of specifier protein in garden cress and (2) by an unspecified, non-enzymatic path in watercress. In an effort to understand more about the mechanisms involved in simple nitrile formation in these species, we analysed their seeds for specifier protein and myrosinase activities, endogenous iron content and glucosinolate degradation products after addition of different iron species, specific chelators and various heat treatments. We confirmed that simple nitrile formation was predominantly under specifier protein control (thiocyanate-forming protein) in garden cress seeds. Limited thermal degradation of the major glucosinolate, glucotropaeolin (benzyl glucosinolate), occurred when seed material was heated to >120 degrees C. In the watercress seeds, however, we show for the first time that gluconasturtiin (phenylethyl glucosinolate) undergoes a non-enzymatic, iron-dependent degradation to a simple nitrile. On heating the seeds to 120 degrees C or greater, thermal degradation of this heat-labile glucosinolate increased simple nitrile levels many fold.

CRC50150 Targeting mechanisms of phosphine resistance in stored grain pests

The objectives of this projects are: 1)To ensure the identification of genomic DNA markers for phosphine resistance in Rhyzopertha dominica and Tribolium castaneum; 2) To determine gene function of identified phosphine resistance genes in Rhyzopertha dominica and Tribolium castaneum; and 3) Predict future problems by characterising international resistances using our genes as a starting point to determine strong resistance can get by determining similarities with Australia.

Pythium soft rot of ginger: Detection and identification of the causal pathogens, and their control

Ginger is considered by many people to be the outstanding member among 1400 other species in the family Zingiberaceae. Not only it is a valuable spice used by cooks throughout the world to impart unique flavour to their dishes but it also has a long track record in some Chinese and Indian cultures for treating common human ailments such as colds and headaches. Ginger has recently attracted considerable attention for its anti-inflammatory, antibacterial and antifungal properties. However, ginger as a crop is also susceptible to at least 24 different plant pathogens, including viruses, bacteria, fungi and nematodes. Of these, Pythium spp. (within the kingdom Stramenopila, phyllum Oomycota) are of most concern because various species can cause rotting and yield loss on ginger at any of the growth stages including during postharvest storage. Pythium gracile was the first species in the genus to be reported as a ginger pathogen, causing Pythium soft rot disease in India in 1907. Thereafter, numerous other Pythium spp. have been recorded from ginger growing regions throughout the world. Today, 15 Pythium species have been implicated as pathogens of the soft rot disease. Because accurate identification of a pathogen is the cornerstone of effective disease management programs, this review will focus on how to detect, identify and control Pythium spp. in general, with special emphasis on Pythium spp. associated with soft rot on ginger.

Mechanisms of the impact of a weed (grader grass, Themeda quadrivalvis) on reptile assemblage structure in a tropical savannah

Invasive grasses are among the worst threats to native biodiversity, but the mechanisms causing negative effects are poorly understood. To investigate the impact of an invasive grass on reptiles, we compared the reptile assemblages that used native kangaroo grass (Themeda triandra), and black spear grass (Heteropogon contortus), to those using habitats invaded by grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis). There were significantly more reptile species, in greater abundances, in native kangaroo and black spear grass than in invasive grader grass. To understand the sources of negative responses of reptile assemblages to the weed, we compared habitat characteristics, temperatures within grass clumps, food availability and predator abundance among these three grass habitats. Environmental temperatures in grass, invertebrate food availability, and avian predator abundances did not differ among the habitats, and there were fewer reptiles that fed on other reptiles in the invaded than in the native grass sites. Thus, native grass sites did not provide better available thermal environments within the grass, food, or opportunities for predator avoidance. We suggest that habitat structure was the critical factor driving weed avoidance by reptiles in this system, and recommend that the maintenance of heterogeneous habitat structure, including clumping native grasses, with interspersed bare ground, and leaf litter are critical to reptile biodiversity.

Mechanisms of the impact of a weed (grader grass, Themeda quadrivalvis) on reptile assemblage structure in a tropical savannah

Invasive grasses are among the worst threats to native biodiversity, but the mechanisms causing negative effects are poorly understood. To investigate the impact of an invasive grass on reptiles, we compared the reptile assemblages that used native kangaroo grass (Themeda triandra), and black spear grass (Heteropogon contortus), to those using habitats invaded by grader grass (Themeda quadrivalvis). There were significantly more reptile species, in greater abundances, in native kangaroo and black spear grass than in invasive grader grass. To understand the sources of negative responses of reptile assemblages to the weed, we compared habitat characteristics, temperatures within grass clumps, food availability and predator abundance among these three grass habitats. Environmental temperatures in grass, invertebrate food availability, and avian predator abundances did not differ among the habitats, and there were fewer reptiles that fed on other reptiles in the invaded than in the native grass sites. Thus, native grass sites did not provide better available thermal environments within the grass, food, or opportunities for predator avoidance. We suggest that habitat structure was the critical factor driving weed avoidance by reptiles in this system, and recommend that the maintenance of heterogeneous habitat structure, including clumping native grasses, with interspersed bare ground, and leaf litter are critical to reptile biodiversity.

The multidimensional causal factors of ‘wet litter’ in chicken-meat production

The problem of ‘wet litter’, which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality.