Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes.

Modelling management options for management of feral camels in central Australia

Camels (Camelus dromedarius) were introduced into Australia from the 1840s to the early 1900s for transport and hauling cargo in arid regions. Feral populations remained small until the 1930s when many were released after they were superseded for transport by trucks and rail. Although camels have a relatively slow population growth (<10% per annum), the population has not reached carrying capacity and therefore, requires control to reduce the increasing impacts on central Australia. The model developed for the Northern Territory suggested that currently there are insufficient numbers being removed. The model also investigated which control options would have greatest impacts and found harvesting to be most important. The extent to which commercial harvesting can feasibly reduce camel populations requires further analysis. Due to the wide dispersal of camels in Australia, fertility control, even if technically feasible, will not target adults, the most important age class of the population. Habitat preferences were also investigated in the model but more validation is required as the population is still under range expansion. Immediate action is suggested to alleviate future costs as camel populations and their impacts rise.

Global banana disease management - getting serious with sustainability and food security

Much research in understanding plant diseases has been undertaken, but there has been insufficient attention given to dealing with coordinated approaches to preventing and managing diseases. A global management approach is essential to the long-term sustainability of banana production. This approach would involve coordinated surveys, capacity building in developing countries, development of disease outbreak contingency plans and coordinated quarantine awareness, including on-line training in impact risk assessment and web-based diagnostic software. Free movement of banana plants and products between some banana-producing countries is causing significant pressure on the ability to manage diseases in banana. The rapid spread of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense 'tropical race 4' in Asia, bacterial wilts in Africa and Asia and black leaf streak [Mycosphaerella fijiensis] in Brazil and elsewhere are cases in point. The impact of these diseases is devastating, severely cutting family incomes and jeopardising food security around the globe. Agreements urgently need to be reached between governments to halt the movement of banana plants and products between banana-producing countries before it is too late and global food security is irreparably harmed. Black leaf streak, arguably the most serious banana disease, has become extremely difficult to control in commercial plantations in various parts of the world. Sometimes in excess of 50 fungicide sprays have to be applied each year. Disease eradication and effective disease control is not possible because there is no control of disease inoculum in non-commercial plantings in these locations. Additionally, there have been enormous sums of money invested in international banana breeding programmes over many years only to see the value of hybrid products lost too soon. 'Goldfinger' (AAAB, syn. 'FHIA-01'), for example, has recently been observed severely affected by black leaf streak in Samoa. Resistant cultivars alone cannot be relied upon in the fight against this disease. Real progress in control may only come when the local communities are engaged and become actively involved in regional programmes. Global recommendations are long overdue and urgently needed to help ensure the long-term sustainable utilisation of the products of the breeding programmes.

Sustainable and profitable grazing management in a highly variable environment-evidence and insights from a long term grazing trial in northern Australia.

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable management in semi-arid rangelands. We present empirical evidence from a large, long-term grazing trial in northern Australia on the relative performance of constant heavy stocking, moderate stocking at long-term carrying capacity and variable stocking in coping with climate variability over a range of rainfall years. Moderate stocking gave good economic returns, maintained pasture condition and minimised soil loss and runoff. Heavy stocking was neither sustainable nor profitable in the long term. Variable stocking generally performed well but suffered economic loss and some decline in pasture condition in the transition from good to poor years. Importantly, our results show that sustainable and profitable management are compatible in semi-arid rangelands.

Adaptation and management of Australian buffalograss cultivars for shade and water conservation

Soft-leaf buffalo grass is increasing in popularity as an amenity turfgrass in Australia. This project was instigated to assess the adaptation of and establish management guidelines for its use in Australias vast array of growing environments. There is an extensive selection of soft-leaf buffalo grass cultivars throughout Australia and with the countrys changing climates from temperate in the south to tropical in the north not all cultivars are going to be adapted to all regions. The project evaluated 19 buffalo grass cultivars along with other warm-season grasses including green couch, kikuyu and sweet smother grass. The soft-leaf buffalo grasses were evaluated for their growth and adaptation in a number of regions throughout Australia including Western Australia, Victoria, ACT, NSW and Queensland. The growth habit of the individual cultivars was examined along with their level of shade tolerance, water use, herbicide tolerance, resistance to wear, response to nitrogen applications and growth potential in highly alkaline (pH) soils. The growth habit of the various cultivars currently commercially available in Australia differs considerably from the more robust type that spreads quicker and is thicker in appearance (Sir Walter, Kings Pride, Ned Kelly and Jabiru) to the dwarf types that are shorter and thinner in appearance (AusTine and AusDwarf). Soft-leaf buffalo grass types tested do not differ in water use when compared to old-style common buffalo grass. Thus, soft-leaf buffalo grasses, like other warm-season turfgrass species, are efficient in water use. These grasses also recover after periods of low water availability. Individual cultivar differences were not discernible. In high pH soils (i.e. on alkaline-side) some elements essential for plant growth (e.g. iron and manganese) may be deficient causing turfgrass to appear pale green, and visually unacceptable. When 14 soft-leaf buffalo grass genotypes were grown on a highly alkaline soil (pH 7.5-7.9), cultivars differed in leaf iron, but not in leaf manganese, concentrations. Nitrogen is critical to the production of quality turf. The methods for applying this essential element can be manipulated to minimise the maintenance inputs (mowing) during the peak growing period (summer). By applying the greatest proportion of the turfs total nitrogen requirements in early spring, peak summer growth can be reduced resulting in a corresponding reduction in mowing requirements. Soft-leaf buffalo grass cultivars are more shade and wear tolerant than other warm-season turfgrasses being used by homeowners. There are differences between the individual buffalo grass varieties however. The majority of types currently available would be classified as having moderate levels of shade tolerance and wear reasonably well with good recovery rates. The impact of wear in a shaded environment was not tested and there is a need to investigate this as this is a typical growing environment for many homeowners. The use of herbicides is required to maintain quality soft-leaf buffalo grass turf. The development of softer herbicides for other turfgrasses has seen an increase in their popularity. The buffalo grass cultivars currently available have shown varying levels of susceptibility to the chemicals tested. The majority of the cultivars evaluated have demonstrated low levels of phytotoxicity to the herbicides chlorsulfuron (Glean) and fluroxypyr (Starane and Comet). In general, soft leaf buffalo grasses are varied in their makeup and have demonstrated varying levels of tolerance/susceptibility/adaptation to the conditions they are grown under. Consequently, there is a need to choose the cultivar most suited to the environment it is expected to perform in and the management style it will be exposed to. Future work is required to assess how the structure of the different cultivars impacts on their capacity to tolerate wear, varying shade levels, water use and herbicide tolerance. The development of a growth model may provide the solution.

Interactions between rotation breaks, tillage and N management on sugarcane grown at Bundaberg and Ingham.

The impact of cropping histories (sugarcane, maize and soybean), tillage practices (conventional tillage and direct drill) and fertiliser N in the plant and 1st ratoon (1R) crops of sugarcane were examined in field trials at Bundaberg and Ingham. Average yields at Ingham (Q200) and Bundaberg (Q151) were quite similar in both the plant crop (83 t/ha and 80 t/ha, respectively) and the 1R (89 t/ha v 94 t/ha, respectively), with only minor treatment effects on CCS at each site. Cane yield responses to tillage, break history and N fertiliser varied significantly between sites. There was a 27% yield increase in the plant crop from the soybean fallow at Ingham, with soybeans producing a yield advantage over continuous cane, but there were no clear break effects at Bundaberg - possibly due to a complex of pathogenic nematodes that responded differently to soybeans and maize breaks. There was no carryover benefit of the soybean break into the 1R crop at Ingham, while at Bundaberg the maize break produced a 15% yield advantage over soybeans and continuous cane. The Ingham site recorded positive responses to N fertiliser addition in both the plant (20% yield increase) and 1R (34% yield increase) crops, but there was negligible carryover benefit from plant crop N in the 1R crop, or of a reduced N response after a soybean rotation. By contrast, the Bundaberg site showed no N response in any history in the plant crop, and only a small (5%) yield increase with N applied in the 1R crop. There was again no evidence of a reduced N response in the 1R crop after a soybean fallow. There were no significant effects of tillage on cane yields at either site, although there were some minor interactions between tillage, breaks and N management in the 1R crop at both sites. Crop N contents at Bundaberg were more than 3 times those recorded at Ingham in both the plant and 1R crops, with N concentrations in millable stalk at Ingham suggesting N deficiencies in all treatments. There was negligible additional N recovered in crop biomass from N fertiliser application or soybean residues at the Ingham site. There was additional N recovered in crop biomass in response to N fertiliser and soybean breaks at Bundaberg, but effects were small and fertiliser use efficiencies poor. Loss pathways could not be quantified, but denitrification or losses in runoff were the likely causes at Ingham while leaching predominated at Bundaberg. Results highlight the complexity involved in developing sustainable farming systems for contrasting soil types and climatic conditions. A better understanding of key sugarcane pathogens and their host range, as well as improved capacity to predict in-crop N mineralisation, will be key factors in future improvements to sugarcane farming systems.

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Role of Native Fish in Integrated Aquatic Weed and Water Quality Management within the Burdekin Irrigation Area

This report summarises work conducted by the QDPI, in partnership with the South Burdekin Water Board (SBWB) and the Burdekin Shire Council (BSC) between 2001 and 2003. The broad aim of the research was to assess the potential of native fish as biocontrol agents for noxious weeds, as part of an integrated program for managing water quality in the Burdekin Irrigation Area. A series of trials were conducted at, or using water derived from, the Sandy Creek Diversion near Groper Creek (lower Burdekin delta). Trials demonstrated that aquatic weeds play a positive role in trapping transient nutrients, until such time that weed growth becomes self-shading and weed dieback occurs, which releases stored nutrients and adversely affects water quality. Transient nutrient levels (av. TN<0.5mg/L; av. TP<0.1mg/L) found in the irrigation channel during the course of this research were substantially lower than expected, especially considering the intensive agriculture and sewage effluent discharge upstream from the study site. This confirms the need to consider the control of weeds rather than complete weed extermination when formulating management plans. However, even when low nutrient levels are available, there is competitive exploitation of habitat variables in the irrigation area leading to succession and eventual domination by certain weed species. During these trials, we have seen filamentous algae, phytoplankton, hyacinth and curled pondweed each hold competitive advantage at certain points. However without intervention, floating weeds, especially hyacinth, ultimately predominate in the Burdekin delta due to their fast propagation rate and their ability to out-shade submerged plants. We have highlighted the complexity of interactions in these highly disturbed ecosystems in that even if the more prevalent noxious weeds are contained, other weed species will exploit the vacant niche. This complexity places stringent requirements on the type of native fish that can be used as biocontrol agents. Of the seven fish species identified with herbivorous trophic niches, most target plankton or algae and do not have the physical capacity to directly eat the larger macrophytes of the delta. We do find however that following mechanical weed harvesting, inoculative releases of fish can slow the rate of hyacinth recolonisation. This occurs by mechanisms in addition to direct weed consumption, such as disturbing growth surfaces by grazing on attached biofilms. Predation by birds and water rats presents another impediment to the efficacy of large-scale releases of fish. However, alternative uses of fish in water quality management in the Burdekin irrigation area are discussed.

Best management practices for sustainable and safe playing surface of Australian Football League sports fields

In 2002, AFL Queensland and the Brisbane Lions Football Club approached the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (Queensland) for advice on improving their Premier League sports fields. They were concerned about player safety and dissatisfaction with playing surfaces, particularly uneven turf cover and variable under-foot conditions. They wanted to get the best from new investments in ground maintenance equipment and irrigation infrastructure. Their sports fields were representative of community-standard, multi-use venues throughout Australia; generally ‘natural’ soil fields, with low maintenance budgets, managed by volunteers. Improvements such as reconstruction, drainage, or regular re-turfing are generally not affordable. Our project aimed to: (a) Review current world practice and performance benchmarks; (b) Demonstrate best-practice management for community-standard fields; (c) Adapt relevant methods for surface performance testing; (d) Assess current soils, and investigate useful amendments; (e) Improve irrigation system performance; and (e) Build industry capacity and encourage patterns for ongoing learning. Most global sports field research focuses on elite, sand-based fields. We adjusted elite standards for surface performance (hardness, traction, soil moisture, evenness, sward cover/height) and maintenance programs, to suit community-standard fields with lesser input resources. In regularly auditing ground conditions across 12 AFLQ fields in SE QLD, we discovered surface hardness (measured by Clegg Hammer) was the No. 1 factor affecting player safety and surface performance. Other important indices were turf coverage and surface compaction (measured by penetrometer). AFLQ now runs regularly audits affiliated fields, and closes grounds with hardness readings greater than 190 Gmax. Aerating every two months was the primary mechanical practice improving surface condition and reducing hardness levels to < 110 Gmax on the renovated project fields. With irrigation installation, these fields now record surface conditions comparable to elite fields. These improvements encouraged many other sporting organisations to seek advice / assistance from the project team. AFLQ have since substantially invested in an expanded ground improvement program, to cater for this substantially increased demand. In auditing irrigation systems across project fields, we identified low maintenance (with < 65% of sprinklers operating optimally) as a major problem. Retrofitting better nozzles and adjusting sprinklers improved irrigation distribution uniformity to 75-80%. Research showed that reducing irrigation frequency to weekly, and preparedness to withhold irrigation longer after rain, reduced irrigation requirement by 30-50%, compared to industry benchmarks of 5-6 ML/ha/annum. Project team consultation with regulatory authorities enhanced irrigation efficiency under imposed regional water restrictions. Laboratory studies showed incorporated biosolids / composts, or topdressed crumb rubber, improved compaction resistance of soils. Field evaluations confirmed compost incorporation significantly reduced surface hardness of high wear areas in dry conditions, whilst crumb rubber assisted turf persistence into early winter. Neither amendment was a panacea for poor agronomic practices. Under the auspices of the project Trade Mark Sureplay®, we published > 80 articles, and held > 100 extension activities involving > 2,000 participants. Sureplay® has developed a multi-level curator training structure and resource materials, subject to commercial implementation. The partnerships with industry bodies (particularly AFLQ), frequent extension activities, and engagement with government/regulatory sectors have been very successful, and are encouraged for any future work. Specific aspects of sports field management for further research include: (a) Understanding of factors affecting turf wear resistance and recovery, to improve turf persistence under wear; (b) Simple tests for pinpointing areas of fields with high hardness risk; and (c) Evaluation of new irrigation infrastructure, ‘water-saving’ devices, and irrigation protocols, in improving water use and turf cover outcomes.

Climate Q - Develop capacity to adapt to climate change in Queensland

Aims to build adaptive capacity within Qld's mixed farming (cropping/beef) sector.

CRC20093 Increasing Diagnostic Capacity in Thailand

Accurate identification of pests is essential for practically all aspects of agricultural development and is critical to the operations of biosecurity that safeguard agricultural integrity and facilitate trade. Diagnostic capability is at the forefront of and complementary to, activities such as border protection, incursion management, surveillance and pest and disease certification. The efficiency of a biosecurity system therefore depends largely on the feedback between these activities and diagnostics. Australian scientists will train Thai scientists in diagnostics and surveillance to provide the Thai DOA with skills that will aid in the development of a Thai Diagnostic Network. The skills will be taught using a range of pests, including some which have particular biosecurity importance for both Australia and Thailand such as citrus canker, potato viruses and fruit flies.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

Sustainable grazing management for temporal and spatial variability in north Australian rangelands – a synthesis of the latest evidence and recommendations

Rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable grazing management in northern Australia, with management often complicated further by large, spatially-heterogeneous paddocks. This paper presents the latest grazing research and associated bio-economic modelling from northern Australia and assesses the extent to which current recommendations to manage for these issues are supported. Overall, stocking around the safe long-term carrying capacity will maintain land condition and maximise long-term profitability. However, stocking rates should be varied in a risk-averse manner as pasture availability varies between years. Periodic wet-season spelling is also essential to maintain pasture condition and allow recovery of overgrazed areas. Uneven grazing distributions can be partially managed through fencing, providing additional water-points and in some cases patch-burning, although the economics of infrastructure development are extremely context-dependent. Overall, complex multi-paddock grazing systems do not appear justified in northern Australia. Provided the key management principles outlined above are applied in an active, adaptive manner, acceptable economic and environmental outcomes will be achieved irrespective of the grazing system applied.