Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Diel variation in mangrove fish abundances and trophic guilds of northeastern Australian estuaries with a proposed trophodynamic model

Diel activity patterns of tropical fish assemblages in turbid, mangrove-dominated estuaries remain largely undocumented, leading to uncertainty about ecological processes in these systems. To capture active fishes by day and night, gill nets were set perpendicular to mangrove shorelines, in six northeastern Australian estuaries during 13 bimonthly trips. Fish were sampled with eight large mesh (102-151 mm) nets, set for 6 hrs (1500-2100), and checked hourly (1146 day, 635 dusk, 872 night checks). Four smaller mesh (19-51 mm) nets were also set for 1 hr before and after sunset (77 day, 78 night checks). Of 157 total species, 22 were netted exclusively before sunset and 47 exclusively after sunset. All of the top 26 species were present both day and night, but of these, 46% were primarily nocturnal (diel index > 0.65). An average of 77.2 fish hr−1 were netted by day vs 171.4 by night. Within the 400 km coastal region, assemblages differed between two northern wave-dominated (WD) estuaries and four southern tide-dominated ('I'D) estuaries. In all six estuaries Lates calcarifer (Bloch, 1790) dominated night assemblages. In 'I'D estuaries, night assemblages were also dominated by Thryssa hamiltoni Gray, 1835 and Eleutheronema tetradactylum (Shaw, 1804); while in WD estuaries Herklotsichthys castelnaui (Ogilby, 1897), Leiognathus equulus (Forsskål, 1775), and Megalops cyprinoids (Broussonet, 1782) were dominant at night. Nocturnal species included planktivores and carnivores, while daytime assemblages were dominated by detritivores (Mugillidae). Higher night catch rates are attributed to increased activity by mobile fishes moving from mangrove to adjacent habitats to forage, especially immediately post-sunset. Although day-night diets and forage resources have yet to be compared in mangrove systems, previously unrecognized trophic relationships involving variation in diel activity among important fishery species (Centropomidae, polynemidae, Carangidae) and their prey may be key ecological processes in these tropical mangrove estuaries. A proposed hypothesis explaining diel variation in mangrove fish assemblages of tropical estuaries is presented through a conceptual model.

Dosage consistency is the key factor in avoiding evolution of resistance to phosphine and population increase in stored-grain pests

BACKGROUND Control of pests in stored grain and the evolution of resistance to pesticides are serious problems worldwide. A stochastic individual-based two-locus model was used to investigate the impact of two important issues, the consistency of pesticide dosage through the storage facility and the immigration rate of the adult pest, on overall population control and avoidance of evolution of resistance to the fumigant phosphine in an important pest of stored grain, the lesser grain borer. RESULTS A very consistent dosage maintained good control for all immigration rates, while an inconsistent dosage failed to maintain control in all cases. At intermediate dosage consistency, immigration rate became a critical factor in whether control was maintained or resistance emerged. CONCLUSION Achieving a consistent fumigant dosage is a key factor in avoiding evolution of resistance to phosphine and maintaining control of populations of stored-grain pests; when the dosage achieved is very inconsistent, there is likely to be a problem regardless of immigration rate. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry

Prediction of breeding values for average fruit weight in mango using a multivariate individual mixed model

Mango is an important horticultural fruit crop and breeding is a key strategy to improve ongoing sustainability. Knowledge of breeding values of potential parents is important for maximising progress from breeding. This study successfully employed a mixed linear model methods incorporating a pedigree to predict breeding values for average fruit weight from highly unbalanced data for genotypes planted over three field trials and assessed over several harvest seasons. Average fruit weight was found to be under strong additive genetic control. There was high correlation between hybrids propagated as seedlings and hybrids propagated as scions grafted onto rootstocks. Estimates of additive genetic correlation among trials ranged from 0.69 to 0.88 with correlations among harvest seasons within trials greater than 0.96. These results suggest that progress from selection for broad adaptation can be achieved, particularly as no repeatable environmental factor that could be used to predict G x E could be identified. Predicted breeding values for 35 known cultivars are presented for use in ongoing breeding programs.

Issues of Digital Ecosystems Approach to Biological Ecosystem Simulation Model Fit Optimization

This study examines the application of digital ecosystems concepts to a biological ecosystem simulation problem. The problem involves the use of a digital ecosystem agent to optimize the accuracy of a second digital ecosystem agent, the biological ecosystem simulation. The study also incorporates social ecosystems, with a technological solution design subsystem communicating with a science subsystem and simulation software developer subsystem to determine key characteristics of the biological ecosystem simulation. The findings show similarities between the issues involved in digital ecosystem collaboration and those occurring when digital ecosystems interact with biological ecosystems. The results also suggest that even precise semantic descriptions and comprehensive ontologies may be insufficient to describe agents in enough detail for use within digital ecosystems, and a number of solutions to this problem are proposed.

Effect of Broadcast Baiting on Abundance Patterns of Red Imported Fire Ants (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and Key Local Ant Genera at Long-Term Monitoring Sites in Brisbane, Australia

In 2001, the red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) was identified in Brisbane, Australia. An eradication program involving broadcast bait treatment with two insect growth regulators and a metabolic inhibitor began in September of that year and is currently ongoing. To gauge the impacts of these treatments on local ant populations, we examined long-term monitoring data and quantified abundance patterns of S. invicta and common local ant genera using a linear mixed-effects model. For S. invicta, presence in pitfalls reduced over time to zero on every site. Significantly higher numbers of S. invicta workers were collected on high-density polygyne sites, which took longer to disinfest compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. For local ants, nine genus groups of the 10 most common genera analyzed either increased in abundance or showed no significant trend. Five of these genus groups were significantly less abundant at the start of monitoring on high-density polygyne sites compared with monogyne and low-density polygyne sites. The genus Pheidole significantly reduced in abundance over time, suggesting that it was affected by treatment efforts. These results demonstrate that the treatment regime used at the time successfully removed S. invicta from these sites in Brisbane, and that most local ant genera were not seriously impacted by the treatment. These results have important implications for current and future prophylactic treatment efforts, and suggest that native ants remain in treated areas to provide some biological resistance to S. invicta.

The Ethics of a Co-regulatory Model for Farm Animal Welfare Research

Standards for farm animal welfare are variously managed at a national level by government-led regulatory control, by consumer-led welfare economics and co-regulated control in a partnership between industry and government. In the latter case the control of research to support animal welfare standards by the relevant industry body may lead to a conflict of interest on the part of researchers, who are dependent on industry for continued research funding. We examine this dilemma by reviewing two case studies of research published under an Australian co-regulated control system. Evidence of unsupported conclusions that are favourable to industry is provided, suggesting that researchers do experience a conflict of interest that may influence the integrity of the research. Alternative models for the management of research are discussed, including the establishment of an independent research management body for animal welfare because of its public good status and the use of public money derived from taxation, with representation from government, industry, consumers, and advocacy groups.

Fate of key food-borne pathogens associated with intensive pig and poultry farming environments

Intensive pig and poultry farming in Australia can be a source of pathogens with implications for food-safety and/or human illness. Seven studies were undertaken with the following objectives: · Assess the types of zoonotic pathogens in waste · Assess the transfer of pathogens during re-use both within the shed and externally in the environment · The potential for movement of pathogens via aerosols In the first and second studies the extent of zoonotic pathogens was evaluated in both piggery effluent and chicken litter and Salmonella and Campylobacter were detected in both wastes. In the third study the dynamics of Salmonella during litter re-use was examined and results showed a trend for lower Salmonella levels and serovar diversity in re-used litter compared to new litter. Thus, re-use within the poultry farming system posed no increased risk. The fourth study addressed the direct risks of pathogens to farm workers due to reuse of piggery effluent within the pig shed. Based on air-borne Escherichia coli (E. coli) levels, re-using effluent did not pose a risk. In the fifth study high levels of Arcobacter spp. were detected in effluent ponds and freshly irrigated soils with potential food-safety risks during the irrigation of food-crops and pasture. The sixth and seventh studies addressed the risks from aerosols from mechanically ventilated sheds. Staphylococci were shown to have potential as markers, with airborne levels gradually dropping and reaching background levels at 400 m distance. Salmonella was detected (at low levels) both inside and outside the shed (at 10 m). Campylobacter was detected only once inside the shed during the 3-year period (at low levels). Results showed there was minimal risk to humans living adjacent to poultry farms This is the first comprehensive analysis studying key food-safety pathogens and potential public health risks associated with intensively farmed pigs and poultry in Australia.

Ecological Networks in Stored Grain: Key Postharvest Nodes for Emerging Pests, Pathogens, and Mycotoxins

Wheat is at peak quality soon after harvest. Subsequently, diverse biota use wheat as a resource in storage, including insects and mycotoxin-producing fungi. Transportation networks for stored grain are crucial to food security and provide a model system for an analysis of the population structure, evolution, and dispersal of biota in networks. We evaluated the structure of rail networks for grain transport in the United States and Eastern Australia to identify the shortest paths for the anthropogenic dispersal of pests and mycotoxins, as well as the major sources, sinks, and bridges for movement. We found important differences in the risk profile in these two countries and identified priority control points for sampling, detection, and management. An understanding of these key locations and roles within the network is a new type of basic research result in postharvest science and will provide insights for the integrated pest management of high-risk subpopulations, such as pesticide-resistant insect pests.