The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Ghost fishing in the pot fishery for blue swimmer crabs Portunus pelagicus in Queensland, Australia

Blue swimmer crabs (Portunus pelagicus) are an economically important crab caught in baited traps throughout the Indo-west Pacific and Mediterranean. In Australia they are traditionally caught using rigid wire traps (approximate to pots) but there has been a recent increase in the use of collapsible pots constructed from polyethylene trawl mesh. Two experiments were conducted in Moreton Bay, Queensland, to determine the ghost fishing potential of lost crab pots on both target and bycatch species and to evaluate the differences between traditional and contemporary pot designs. A lost contemporary, collapsible trawl mesh pot will catch between 3 and 223 R pelagicus per year after the bait has been exhausted, while a traditional wire mesh pot would catch 11-74 crabs peryear. As most fishers now use the collapsible trawl mesh pots, ghost fishing mortality could be as high as 111,811-670,866 crabs per year. Bycatch retention was also higher in contemporary designs. Periods of strong winds appeared to increase the ghost fishing potential of lost pots. The use of escape gaps, larger mesh sizes and construction options that allow for the deterioration of entrance funnels to minimise ghost fishing are recommended to reduce environmental impacts.

Reproductive variation in naturally occurring populations of the weed Parthenium hysterophorus (Asteraceae) in Australia

Parthenium weed, an annual herb native to tropical America, causes severe economic, human, and animal health and environmental impacts in Australia and in many countries in Asia, Africa, and the Pacific. There is little known about variation in reproductive output in naturally occurring populations of this weed. This information is vital to develop plant population models, devise management strategies to reduce seed output, and formulate parthenium weed pollen-induced human health (e.g., dermatitis and hay fever) risk assessment. Here, the variations in the number of capitula produced by the parthenium weed at two sites in Queensland, Australia, over a 4-yr period are reported. Under field conditions, parthenium weed produced up to 39,192 capitula per plant (> 156,768 seeds per plant), with majority of the plants (approximate to 75%) producing between 11 and 1,000 capitula, and less than 0.3% of the plants producing more than 10,000 capitula (> 40,000 seeds per plant). The number of capitula per plant in the field (297 +/- 22) was much lower than those reported from glasshouse and laboratory studies. Plant biomass contributed to 50 to 80% of the variation in capitulum production between plants within plots at each site, and weed density accounted for 62 to 73% of the variation in capitulum production between plots within each site. As plant size is directly correlated with reproductive output, plant size distributions in parthenium weed can be used to estimate effective population size. Information on variation in reproductive output will be used to implement management strategies to reduce parthenium weed seed output, resulting in reduced soil seed bank and weed seed spread.

Potential Distribution and Risk Assessment of an Invasive Plant Species: A Case Study of Hymenachne amplexicaulis in Australia

Given the limited resources available for weed management, a strategic approach is required to give the best bang for your buck. The current study incorporates: (1) a model ensemble approach to identify areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding a species invasive potential, (2) current distribution of the invaded species, and (3) connectivity of systems to identify target regions and focus efforts for more effective management. Uncertainty in the prediction of suitable habitat for H. amplexicaulis (study species) in Australia was addressed in an ensemble-forecasting approach to compare distributional scenarios from four models (CLIMATCH; CLIMEX; boosted regression trees [BRT]; maximum entropy [Maxent]). Models were built using subsets of occurrence and environmental data. Catchment risk was determined through incorporating habitat suitability, the current abundance and distribution of H. amplexicaulis, and catchment connectivity. Our results indicate geographic differences between predictions of different approaches. Despite these differences a number of catchments in northern, central, and southern Australia were identified as high risk of invasion or further spread by all models suggesting they should be given priority for the management of H. amplexicaulis. The study also highlighted the utility of ensemble approaches in indentifying areas of uncertainty and commonality regarding the species invasive potential.

High-anthocyanin strawberries through cultivar selection

BACKGROUND: Diets high in fruit and vegetables are known to have significant health benefits. This is in part due to the presence of phytochemicals, which possess potential protective health benefits. This study focuses on the ability of strawberries to be bred for higher anthocyanin content. This is a major contributor to the characteristic colour and nutritional value of ripe strawberries, together with phenolic acids, ascorbic acid and total antioxidant capacity. RESULTS: Anthocyanins in five commercial strawberry cultivars and three breeding lines were assessed. This led to the discovery of one breeding line (BL 2006-221) as an exceptional source of anthocyanins (approximate to 1 g kg1 fresh weight), with approximately double the levels of current commercial cultivars. Temperature was shown to influence anthocyanin extraction, with 40 degrees C being the best extraction temperature using the accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) method. Hue angle and anthocyanin concentration showed a good correlation (r2 = 0.69). CONCLUSION: The new breeding line BL 2006-221 has the potential to be used in the development of phytochemically rich strawberry cultivars. Using hue angle as a screening tool for total anthocyanin concentration and extraction of anthocyanins from strawberries by ASE at 40 degrees C would support such cultivar development. (c) 2012 Commonwealth of Australia

Deriving optimal fishing effort for managing Australia's Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery with aggregated effort data

Deriving an estimate of optimal fishing effort or even an approximate estimate is very valuable for managing fisheries with multiple target species. The most challenging task associated with this is allocating effort to individual species when only the total effort is recorded. Spatial information on the distribution of each species within a fishery can be used to justify the allocations, but often such information is not available. To determine the long-term overall effort required to achieve maximum sustainable yield (MSY) and maximum economic yield (MEY), we consider three methods for allocating effort: (i) optimal allocation, which optimally allocates effort among target species; (ii) fixed proportions, which chooses proportions based on past catch data; and (iii) economic allocation, which splits effort based on the expected catch value of each species. Determining the overall fishing effort required to achieve these management objectives is a maximizing problem subject to constraints due to economic and social considerations. We illustrated the approaches using a case study of the Moreton Bay Prawn Trawl Fishery in Queensland (Australia). The results were consistent across the three methods. Importantly, our analysis demonstrated the optimal total effort was very sensitive to daily fishing costs—the effort ranged from 9500–11 500 to 6000–7000, 4000 and 2500 boat-days, using daily cost estimates of $0, $500, $750, and $950, respectively. The zero daily cost corresponds to the MSY, while a daily cost of $750 most closely represents the actual present fishing cost. Given the recent debate on which costs should be factored into the analyses for deriving MEY, our findings highlight the importance of including an appropriate cost function for practical management advice. The approaches developed here could be applied to other multispecies fisheries where only aggregated fishing effort data are recorded, as the literature on this type of modelling is sparse.