Climate change impacts on northern Australian rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

Grazing is a major land use in Australia's rangelands. The 'safe' livestock carrying capacity (LCC) required to maintain resource condition is strongly dependent on climate. We reviewed: the approaches for quantifying LCC; current trends in climate and their effect on components of the grazing system; implications of the 'best estimates' of climate change projections for LCC; the agreement and disagreement between the current trends and projections; and the adequacy of current models of forage production in simulating the impact of climate change. We report the results of a sensitivity study of climate change impacts on forage production across the rangelands, and we discuss the more general issues facing grazing enterprises associated with climate change, such as 'known uncertainties' and adaptation responses (e.g. use of climate risk assessment). We found that the method of quantifying LCC from a combination of estimates (simulations) of long-term (>30 years) forage production and successful grazier experience has been well tested across northern Australian rangelands with different climatic regions. This methodology provides a sound base for the assessment of climate change impacts, even though there are many identified gaps in knowledge. The evaluation of current trends indicated substantial differences in the trends of annual rainfall (and simulated forage production) across Australian rangelands with general increases in most of western Australian rangelands ( including northern regions of the Northern Territory) and decreases in eastern Australian rangelands and south-western Western Australia. Some of the projected changes in rainfall and temperature appear small compared with year-to-year variability. Nevertheless, the impacts on rangeland production systems are expected to be important in terms of required managerial and enterprise adaptations. Some important aspects of climate systems science remain unresolved, and we suggest that a risk-averse approach to rangeland management, based on the 'best estimate' projections, in combination with appropriate responses to short-term (1-5 years) climate variability, would reduce the risk of resource degradation. Climate change projections - including changes in rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide and other climatic variables - if realised, are likely to affect forage and animal production, and ecosystem functioning. The major known uncertainties in quantifying climate change impacts are: (i) carbon dioxide effects on forage production, quality, nutrient cycling and competition between life forms (e.g. grass, shrubs and trees); and (ii) the future role of woody plants including effects of. re, climatic extremes and management for carbon storage. In a simple example of simulating climate change impacts on forage production, we found that increased temperature (3 degrees C) was likely to result in a decrease in forage production for most rangeland locations (e. g. -21% calculated as an unweighted average across 90 locations). The increase in temperature exacerbated or reduced the effects of a 10% decrease/increase in rainfall respectively (-33% or -9%). Estimates of the beneficial effects of increased CO2 (from 350 to 650 ppm) on forage production and water use efficiency indicated enhanced forage production (+26%). The increase was approximately equivalent to the decline in forage production associated with a 3 degrees C temperature increase. The large magnitude of these opposing effects emphasised the importance of the uncertainties in quantifying the impacts of these components of climate change. We anticipate decreases in LCC given that the 'best estimate' of climate change across the rangelands is for a decline (or little change) in rainfall and an increase in temperature. As a consequence, we suggest that public policy have regard for: the implications for livestock enterprises, regional communities, potential resource damage, animal welfare and human distress. However, the capability to quantify these warnings is yet to be developed and this important task remains as a challenge for rangeland and climate systems science.

A strategic approach to mitigating the impacts of wild canids: proposed activities of the Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre

Wild canids (wild dogs and European red foxes) cause substantial losses to Australian livestock industries and environmental values. Both species are actively managed as pests to livestock production. Contemporaneously, the dingo proportion of the wild dog population, being considered native, is protected in areas designated for wildlife conservation. Wild dogs particularly affect sheep and goat production because of the behavioural responses of domestic sheep and goats to attack, and the flexible hunting tactics of wild dogs. Predation of calves, although less common, is now more economically important because of recent changes in commodity prices. Although sometimes affecting lambing and kidding rates, foxes cause fewer problems to livestock producers but have substantial impacts on environmental values, affecting the survival of small to medium-sized native fauna and affecting plant biodiversity by spreading weeds. Canid management in Australia relies heavily on the use of compound 1080-poisoned baits that can be applied aerially or by ground. Exclusion fencing, trapping, shooting, livestock-guarding animals and predator calling with shooting are also used. The new Invasive Animals Cooperative Research Centre has 40 partners representing private and public land managers, universities, and training, research and development organisations. One of the major objectives of the new IACRC is to apply a strategic approach in order to reduce the impacts of wild canids on agricultural and environmental values in Australia by 10%. In this paper, the impacts, ecology and management of wild canids in Australia are briefly reviewed and the first cooperative projects that will address IACRC objectives for improving wild dog management are outlined.

The impacts and management of foxes Vulpes vulpes in Australia

1. The successful introduction of the red fox Vulpes vulpes into Australia in the 1870s has had dramatic and deleterious impacts on both native fauna and agricultural production. Historical accounts detail how the arrival of foxes in many areas coincided with the local demise of native fauna. Recent analyses suggest that native fauna can be successfully reintroduced to their former ranges only if foxes have been controlled, and several replicated removal experiments have confirmed that foxes are the major agents of extirpation of native fauna. Predation is the primary cause of losses, but competition and transmission of disease may be important for some species. 2. In agricultural landscapes, fox predation on lambs can cause losses of 1–30%; variation is due to flock size, health and management, as well as differences in the timing and duration of lambing and the density of foxes. 3. Fox control measures include trapping, shooting, den fumigation and exclusion fencing; baiting using the toxin 1080 is the most commonly employed method. Depending on the baiting strategy, habitat and area covered, baiting can reduce fox activity by 50–97%. We review patterns of baiting in a large sheep-grazing region in central New South Wales, and propose guidelines to increase landholder awareness of baiting strategies, to concentrate and coordinate bait use, and to maximize the cost-effectiveness of baiting programs. 4. The variable reduction in fox density within the baited area, together with the ability of the fox to recolonize rapidly, suggest that current baiting practices in eastern Australia are often ineffective, and that reforms are required. These might include increasing landholder awareness and involvement in group control programs, and the use of more efficient broadscale techniques, such as aerial baiting.

Quantifying the impacts of rehabilitating degraded lands

Quantifying the impacts of rehabilitating degraded lands on soil health, pastures, runoff, erosion, nutrient and sediment movement.

A participatory whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in Australia

This study presents the use of a whole farm model in a participatory modelling research approach to examine the sensitivity of four contrasting case study farms to a likely climate change scenario. The newly generated information was used to support discussions with the participating farmers in the search for options to design more profitable and sustainable farming systems in Queensland Australia. The four case studies contrasted in key systems characteristics: opportunism in decision making, i.e. flexible versus rigid crop rotations; function, i.e. production of livestock or crops; and level of intensification, i.e. dryland versus irrigated agriculture. Tested tactical and strategic changes under a baseline and climate change scenario (CCS) involved changes in the allocation of land between cropping and grazing enterprises, alternative allocations of limited irrigation water across cropping enterprises, and different management rules for planting wheat and sorghum in rainfed cropping. The results show that expected impacts from a likely climate change scenario were evident in the following increasing order: the irrigated cropping farm case study, the cropping and grazing farm, the more opportunistic rainfed cropping farm and the least opportunistic rainfed cropping farm. We concluded that in most cases the participating farmers were operating close to the efficiency frontier (i.e. in the relationship between profits and risks). This indicated that options to adapt to climate change might need to evolve from investments in the development of more innovative cropping and grazing systems and/or transformational changes on existing farming systems. We expect that even though assimilating expected changes in climate seems to be rather intangible and premature for these farmers, as innovations are developed, adaptation is likely to follow quickly. The multiple interactions among farm management components in complex and dynamic farm businesses operating in a variable and changing climate, make the use of whole farm participatory modelling approaches valuable tools to quantify benefits and trade-offs from alternative farming systems designs in the search for improved profitability and resilience.

Impacts and management of wild pigs Sus scrofa in Australia

Globally, wild or feral pigs Sus scrofa are a widespread and important pest. Mitigation of their impacts requires a sound understanding of those impacts and the benefits and limitations of different management approaches. Here, we review published and unpublished studies to provide a synopsis of contemporary understanding of wild pig impacts and management in Australia, and to identify important shortcomings. Wild pigs can have important impacts on biodiversity values, ecosystem functioning and agricultural production. However, many of these impacts remain poorly described, and therefore, difficult to manage effectively. Many impacts are highly variable, and innovative experimental and analytical approaches may be necessary to elucidate them. Most contemporary management programmes use lethal techniques to attempt to reduce pig densities, but it is often unclear how effective they are at reducing damage. We conclude that greater integration of experimental approaches into wild pig management programmes is necessary to improve our understanding of wild pig impacts, and our ability to manage those impacts effectively and efficiently.

Improving the prediction of odour impacts from meat chicken farms with detailed ventilation and odour data

Odour from meat chicken (broiler) farms is an environmental issue affecting the sustainable development of the chicken meat industry but is a normal part of broiler production. Odour plumes exhausted from broiler sheds interact with the environment, where dispersion and dilution of the odours varies constantly, especially diurnally. The potential for odour impacts is greatest when odour emission rates are high and/or when atmospheric dispersion and dilution of odour plumes is limited (i.e. during stable conditions). We continuously monitored ventilation rate, on-site weather conditions, atmospheric stability, and estimated odour concentration with an artificial olfaction system. Detailed inspection of odour emission rates at critical times, i.e. dawn, dusk and night time, revealed that maximum daily and batch odour emission rates are not necessarily the cause of odour impacts. Periods of lower odour emission rates on each day are more likely to correspond with odour impacts. Odour emission rates need to be measured at the times when odour impacts are most likely to occur, which is likely to be at night. Additionally, high resolution ventilation rate data should be sought after to improve odour emission models, especially at critical times of the day. Consultants, regulators and researchers need to give more thought to odour emission rates from meat chicken farms to improved prediction and management of odour impacts.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Grazing impacts on the susceptibility of rangelands to wind erosion: The effects of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition

An estimated 110 Mt of dust is eroded by wind from the Australian land surface each year, most of which originates from the arid and semi-arid rangelands. Livestock production is thought to increase the susceptibility of the rangelands to wind erosion by reducing vegetation cover and modifying surface soil stability. However, research is yet to quantify the impacts of grazing land management on the erodibility of the Australian rangelands, or determine how these impacts vary among land types and over time. We present a simulation analysis that links a pasture growth and animal production model (GRASP) to the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) to evaluate the impacts of stocking rate, stocking strategy and land condition on the erodibility of four land types in western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that declining land condition, over stocking, and using inflexible stocking strategies have potential to increase land erodibility and amplify accelerated soil erosion. However, land erodibility responses to grazing are complex and influenced by land type sensitivities to different grazing strategies and local climate characteristics. Our simulations show that land types which are more resilient to livestock grazing tend to be least susceptible to accelerated wind erosion. Increases in land erodibility are found to occur most often during climatic transitions when vegetation cover is most sensitive to grazing pressure. However, grazing effects are limited during extreme wet and dry periods when the influence of climate on vegetation cover is strongest. Our research provides the opportunity to estimate the effects of different land management practices across a range of land types, and provides a better understanding of the mechanisms of accelerated erosion resulting from pastoral activities. The approach could help further assessment of land erodibility at a broader scale notably if combined with wind erosion models.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Consumption of crops by feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in a fragmented agricultural landscape

Feral pigs (Sus scrofa) consume and damage crops and impact the environment through predation, competition and habitat disturbance, although supporting dietary data are lacking in agricultural landscapes. This study was undertaken to determine the relative importance of food items in the diet of feral pigs in a fragmented agricultural landscape, particularly to assist in predicting the breadth of likely impacts. Diet composition was assessed from the stomach contents of 196 feral pigs from agricultural properties in southern Queensland. Feral pigs were herbivorous, with plant matter comprising >99% of biomass consumed. Crops were consumed more frequently than non-crop species, and comprised >60% of dietary biomass, indicating a clear potential for direct economic losses. Consumption of pasture and forage species also suggests potential competition for pasture with domestic stock. There is little evidence of direct predation on native fauna, but feral pig feeding activities may impact environmental values. Seasonal differences in consumption of crop, pasture or animal food groups probably reflect the changing availability of food items. We recommend that future dietary studies examine food availability to determine any dietary preferences to assist in determining the foods most susceptible to damage. The outcomes of this study are important for developing techniques for monitoring the impacts of feral pigs, essential for developing management options to reduce feral pig damage on agricultural lands.

Managing reforestation to sequester carbon, increase biodiversity potential and minimize loss of agricultural land

Reforestation will have important consequences for the global challenges of mitigating climate change, arresting habitat decline and ensuring food security. We examined field-scale trade-offs between carbon sequestration of tree plantings and biodiversity potential and loss of agricultural land. Extensive surveys of reforestation across temperate and tropical Australia (N = 1491 plantings) were used to determine how planting width and species mix affect carbon sequestration during early development (< 15 year). Carbon accumulation per area increased significantly with decreasing planting width and with increasing proportion of eucalypts (the predominant over-storey genus). Highest biodiversity potential was achieved through block plantings (width > 40 m) with about 25% of planted individuals being eucalypts. Carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced in mixed-species plantings by establishing narrow belts (width < 20 m) with a high proportion (>75%) of eucalypts, and in monocultures of mallee eucalypt plantings by using the widest belts (ca. 6–20 m). Impacts on agriculture were minimized by planting narrow belts (ca. 4 m) of mallee eucalypt monocultures, which had the highest carbon sequestering efficiency. A plausible scenario where only 5% of highly-cleared areas (<30% native vegetation cover remaining) of temperate Australia are reforested showed substantial mitigation potential. Total carbon sequestration after 15 years was up to 25 Mt CO2-e year−1 when carbon and biodiversity goals were balanced and 13 Mt CO2-e year−1 if block plantings of highest biodiversity potential were established. Even when reforestation was restricted to marginal agricultural land (<$2000 ha−1 land value, 28% of the land under agriculture in Australia), total mitigation potential after 15 years was 17–26 Mt CO2-e year−1 using narrow belts of mallee plantings. This work provides guidance on land use to governments and planners. We show that the multiple benefits of young tree plantings can be balanced by manipulating planting width and species choice at establishment. In highly-cleared areas, such plantings can sequester substantial biomass carbon while improving biodiversity and causing negligible loss of agricultural land.

An Investigation of the Impacts of Ponded Pastures on Barramundi and Other Finfish Populations in Tropical Coastal Wetlands

Objectives: 1) To document the extent of ponded pastures and other pondage systems in and adjacent to coastal wetlands on the central coast of Queensland. 2) To assess the movement, growth and survival of barramundi in ponded pastures. 3) To assess the utilisation by barramundi of ponded pastures and wetlands dominated by exotic grass species. 4) To identify appropriate wetland management strategies for facilitating barramundi movement and survival in ponded pastures and other pondage systems. 5) To document the species composition of finfish populations and their relative abundance in ponded pastures.

Genetic Impacts of the Hull on Barley Grain Quality

Barley hull plays an important role in malt and feed quality and processing. In this study we measured the variation in hull con-tent along with other grain quality traits namely, kernel discolouration and degree of pre-harvest sprouting, in a single map-ping population. There were significant (p < 0.05) genetic as well as environment effects. In addition, heritability was calculated for hull content to be 29% and 47% for two years’ data. From the analysis, major QTL markers were identified in con-trolling the expression of hull content on chromosomes 2 (2H), and 6 (6H) with significant (P < 0.05) LOD scores of 5.4 and 3.46 respectively. Minor QTLs were identified on 1 (7H), 4 (4H), 5 (1H) and 7 (5H). The region at marker Bmac310 on 4(4H) could be associated with dormancy gene SD4. A number of the QTLs also coincided with regions for either kernel discolouration or preharvest sprouting resistance (dormancy). The results indicate that variation exists for hull content, which is influenced by both growing environment as well as genetically, although the genetic variance explained less than half of the total variance. Further, hull content also impacts on other grain quality attributes including dormancy, sprouting resistance and kernel appearance.

Development and Accreditation of an Applied Climate Education Unit for Sustainable Land Use in Australia

In recent years, there have been significant developments in climate science relevant to agriculture and natural resource management. Assessing impacts of climate variability and use of seasonal climate forecasts have become increasingly important elements in the management "toolkit" for many Australian farmers. Consideration of climate change further increases the need for improved management strategies. While climate risk extension activities have kept pace with advances in climate science, a national review of the Vocational Education and Training system in Australia in relation to "weather and climate" showed that these topics were "poorly represented" at the management level in the Australian Qualifications Framework, and needed increased emphasis. Consequently, a new Unit of Competency concerning management of climatic risk was developed and accredited to address this deficiency. The objective of the unit was to build knowledge and skills for better management of climate variability via the elements of surveying climatic and enterprise data; analysing climatic risks and opportunities; and developing climatic risk management strategies. This paper describes establishment of a new unit for vocational education that is designed to harness recent developments in applied climate science for better management of Australia's highly variable climate. The main benefits of the new unit of competency, "Developing climatic risk management strategies,"were seen as improving decisions in climate and agriculture, and reducing climate risk exposure to enhance sustainable agriculture. The educational unit is now within the scope of agricultural colleges, universities, and registered training organisations as an accredited unit.