Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

Wet season resting - economic insights from scenario modelling

Pasture degradation, particularly that attributable to overgrazing, is a significant problem across the northern Australian rangelands. Although grazing studies have identified the scope for wet season resting strategies to be used to rehabilitate degraded pastures, the economic outcome of these strategies has not been extensively demonstrated. An exploratory study of the prospective economic value of wet season resting is presented using an economic simulation model of a 28000 ha beef enterprise located in the Charters Towers region of north-eastern Australia to explore seven hypothetical scenarios centred on the projected performance of a wet season resting strategy. A series of 20-year simulations for a range of pasture recovery profiles, stocking capacity, animal productivity responses, beef prices and agistment options are compared with a baseline scenario of taking no action. Estimates of the net present value of the 20-year difference in total enterprise gross margins between the various resting options and the 'do nothing' option identify that wet season resting can offer a positive economic return for the range of scenarios examined, although this is contingent on the assumptions that are made concerning the trajectories of change in carrying capacity and animal productivity. Some implications for management and policy making to support the practical implementation of wet season resting strategies are discussed.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium aphanidermatum populations infecting cucumber in Oman

Seventy three isolates of Pythium aphanidermatum obtained from cucumber from four different regions of Oman and 16 isolates of muskmelon from the Batinah region in Oman were characterized for aggressiveness, sensitivity to metalaxyl and genetic diversity using AFLP fingerprinting. Twenty isolates of P. aphanidermatum from diverse hosts from different countries were also included in the study. Most isolates from Oman were found to be aggressive on cucumber seedlings and all were highly sensitive to metalaxyl (EC50 < 0•80 µg mL−1). Isolates from cucumber and muskmelon were as aggressive as each other on both hosts (P > 0.05), which implies a lack of host specialization in P. aphanidermatum on these two hosts in Oman. AFLP analysis of all isolates using four primer-pair combinations resolved 152 bands, of which 61 (~40%) were polymorphic. Isolates of P. aphanidermatum from Oman and other countries exhibited high genetic similarity (mean = 94.1%) and produced 59 different AFLP profiles. Analysis of molecular variance indicated that most AFLP variation among populations of P. aphanidermatum in Oman was associated with geographical regions (FST = 0.118; P < 0.0001), not hosts (FST = -0.004; P = 0.4323). These data were supported by the high rate of recovery (24%) of identical phenotypes between cucumber and muskmelon fields in the same region as compared to the low recovery (10%) across regions in Oman, which suggests more frequent movement of Pythium inoculum among muskmelon and cucumber fields in the same region compared to movement across geographically separated regions. However, recovering clones among regions and different countries may imply circulation of Pythium inoculum via common sources in Oman and also intercontinental spread of isolates.

Molecular characterization and pathogenicity of Pythium species associated with damping-off in greenhouse cucumber (Cucumis sativus) in Oman

A study was undertaken in 2004 and 2005 to characterize pathogens associated with damping-off of greenhouse-grown cucumber seedlings in 13 districts in Oman. Identification of Pythium to the species level was based on sequences of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) of the ribosomal DNA. Of the 98 Pythium isolates collected during the survey, Pythium aphanidermatum, P. spinosum, P. splendens and P. oligandrum accounted for 76%, 22%, 1% and 1%, respectively. Pythium aphanidermatum was isolated from all of the districts, while P. spinosum was isolated from seven districts. Pathogenicity tests showed inter- and intraspecific variation in aggressiveness between Pythium species. Pythium aphanidermatum, P. spinosum and P. splendens were found to be highly aggressive at 25°C. However, the aggressiveness of P. spinosum decreased when the temperature was raised to 30°C, which was found to correspond to the lower frequency of isolation of P. spinosum in the warmer seasons, compared to the cooler time of the year. Pythium aphanidermatum exhibited limited intraspecific variation in the sequences of the ITS region of the rDNA and showed 100% similarity to the corresponding P. aphanidermatum sequences from GenBank. The ITS sequence data, as well as morphological characteristics of P. spinosum isolates, showed a high level of similarity within and between P. spinosum and P. kunmingense, and suggested that the two species were synonymous. This study represents the first report of P. spinosum, P. splendens and P. oligandrum in Oman.

Genetic diversity, aggressiveness and metalaxyl sensitivity of Pythium spinosum infecting cucumber in Oman

A total of 24 isolates of Pythium spinosum from cucumber obtained from five regions in Oman were characterized for genetic diversity using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprinting and three isolates from the Netherlands, South Africa and Japan were included for comparison. Isolates from Oman were also characterized for aggressiveness on cucumber seedlings and sensitivity to metalaxyl. Identity of all isolates was confirmed using sequences of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of the ribosomal DNA (rDNA), which showed more than 99% nucleotide similarity among all isolates. Using six primer-pair combinations, AFLP fingerprinting resolved 295 AFLP markers of which 193 were polymorphic among isolates from other countries and only six were polymorphic among isolates of P. spinosum from Oman. Seven different AFLP phenotypes of P. spinosum were recovered in Oman; two of them were found to contain over 79% of isolates and one was recovered from all regions in Oman. Phenotypes from Oman showed very high (?99%) levels of genetic similarity to each other compared to moderate (mean =53%) levels of genetic similarity with phenotypes from other countries. In addition, all isolates from Oman were found to be highly sensitive to metalaxyl and all were aggressive on cucumber seedlings at 25°C. The high genetic similarity among phenotypes of P. spinosum in Oman as well as recovering two major clones across regions may suggest that P. spinosum has been recently introduced in Oman via a common source.

Ceratocystis atrox sp. nov. associated with Phoracantha acanthocera infestations on Eucalyptus grandis in Australia

Ceratocystis spp. include important pathogens of trees as well as apparently saprophytic species. Four species have been recorded on Eucalyptus grandis in Australia, of which only one, C. pirilliformis Barnes and M.J. Wingf., is known to be pathogenic. A recent survey of pests and diseases of Eucalyptus trees in northern Queensland revealed a species of Ceratocystis associated with the tunnels made by the aggressive wood-boring insect Phoracantha acanthocera (Macleay) (Cerambicydae: Coleoptera). The aim of the present study was to identify the fungus based on morphological characteristics and comparisons of DNA sequence data for three gene regions. The fungus peripherally resembles C. fimbriata Ell. and Halst. but differs from this species most obviously by having much darker mycelium, longer ascomatal necks, segmented hyphae and an absence of aleuroconidia. Comparisons of combined sequence data confirmed that the Ceratocystis sp. from P. acanthocera represents an undescribed taxon, which is provided with the name Ceratocystis atrox sp. nov. C. atrox appears to have a close relationship with P. acanthocera, although its role in the biology of the insect is unknown and its pathogenicity has not been considered.

Modelling climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize

Aflatoxins are highly carcinogenic mycotoxins produced by two fungi, Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, under specific moisture and temperature conditions before harvest and/or during storage of a wide range of crops including maize. Modelling of interactions between host plant and environment during the season can enable quantification of preharvest aflatoxin risk and its potential management. A model was developed to quantify climatic risks of aflatoxin contamination in maize using principles previously used for peanuts. The model outputs an aflatoxin risk index in response to seasonal temperature and soil moisture during the maize grain filling period using the APSIM's maize module. The model performed well in simulating climatic risk of aflatoxin contamination in maize as indicated by a significant R2 (P ≤ 0.01) between aflatoxin risk index and the measured aflatoxin B1 in crop samples, which was 0.69 for a range of rainfed Australian locations and 0.62 when irrigated locations were also included in the analysis. The model was further applied to determine probabilities of exceeding a given aflatoxin risk in four non-irrigated maize growing locations of Queensland using 106 years of historical climatic data. Locations with both dry and hot climates had a much higher probability of higher aflatoxin risk compared with locations having either dry or hot conditions alone. Scenario analysis suggested that under non-irrigated conditions the risk of aflatoxin contamination could be minimised by adjusting sowing time or selecting an appropriate hybrid to better match the grain filling period to coincide with lower temperature and water stress conditions.

Economic analyses of options for weedy Sporobolus grass management

Weedy Sporobolus grasses have low palatability for livestock, with infestations reducing land condition and pastoral productivity. Control and containment options are available, but the cost of weed control is high relative to the extra return from livestock, thus, limiting private investment. This paper outlines a process for analysing the economic consequences of alternative management options for weedy Sporobolus grasses. This process is applicable to other weeds and other pastoral degradation or development issues. Using a case study property, three scenarios were developed. Each scenario compared two alternative management options and was analysed using discounted cash flow analysis. Two of the scenarios were based on infested properties and one scenario was based on a currently uninfested property but highly likely to become infested without active containment measures preventing weed seed transport and seedling establishment. The analysis highlighted why particular weedy Sporobolus grass management options may not be financially feasible for the landholder with the infestation. However, at the regional scale, the management options may be highly worthwhile due to a reduction in weed seed movement and new weed invasions. Therefore, to encourage investment by landholders in weedy Sporobolus grass management the investment of public money on behalf of landholders with non-infested properties should be considered.

A detached leaf bioassay to screen Durian cultivars for susceptibility to Phytophthora palmivora

A detached-leaf bioassay was developed and used to screen five durian (Durio zibethinus) cultivars against Phytophthora palmivora isolates from a trunk canker, root and fruit. The fruit isolate was less aggressive than the canker and root isolates. The bioassay using the canker isolate was later used to determine the variation in resistance of D. macarantha and nineteen cultivars of D. zibethinus. The cultivars displayed a range of responses with Parung and Gob being most tolerant, with Gaan Yaow, Chanee and Penang 88 being susceptible. The remaining germplasm fell between Gaan Yaow and Penang 88 in susceptibility. The leaf bioassay was found to be a rapid and reliable method for assessing the susceptibility of durian cultivars.

Buoyancy and germination of pond apple (Annona glabra L.) propagules in fresh and salt water

Stephen Setter, Melissa Setter, Michael Graham and Joe Vitelli recently published their paper 'Buoyancy and germination of pond apple (Annona glabra L.) propagules in fresh and salt water' in Proceedings of the 16th Australian Weeds Conference. Stephen also presented this paper at the conference. Pond apple is an aggressive woody weed which has invaded many wetlands, drainage lines and riparian systems across the Wet Tropics bioregion of Far North Queensland. Most fruit and seed produced by pond apple during the summer wet season fall directly into creeks, river banks, flood plains and swamps from where they are dispersed. They reported that pond apple seeds can float for up to 12 months in either fresh or salt water, with approximately 38% of these seeds germinating in a soil medium once removed from the experimental water tanks at South Johnstone. Their study suggested that the removal of reproductive trees from areas adjacent to creeks and rivers will have an immediate impact on potential spread of pond apple by limiting seed input into flowing water bodies.

The potential geographic distribution of the invasive weed Senna obtusifolia in Australia

Senna obtusifolia (sicklepod) is an invasive weed of northern Australia, where it significantly impacts agricultural productivity and alters natural ecosystem structure and function. Although currently restricted to northern regions, the potential for S. obtusifolia to spread south is not known. Using the eco-climatic model CLIMEX, this study simulated the potential geographic distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia under two scenarios. Model parameters for both scenarios were derived from the distribution of S. obtusifolia throughout North and Central America. The first scenario used these base model parameters to predict the distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia, whilst the second model predicted the distribution of a cold susceptible S. obtusifolia ecotype that is reported to occur in the USA. Both models predicted the potential for an extensive S. obtusifolia distribution, with the first model indicating suitable climatic conditions occurring predominantly in coastal regions from the Northern Territory, to far north Queensland and into northern Victoria. The cold susceptible ecotype displayed a comparatively reduced distribution in the southern parts of Australia, where inappropriate temperatures, a lack of thermal accumulation and cold stress restrict the invasion south to the coastal regions of central New South Wales. The extent of the predicted distribution of both ecotypes of S. obtusifolia reinforces the need for strategic management at a national scale.

Advances in the culture of lobsters.

Commercial aquaculture of marine lobsters is an attractive proposition, as most species are high value with established market demand, and fishery production is static or diminishing. Nevertheless, achievement of commercial success will necessitate resolution of technical difficulties associated with on-growing of aggressive species (clawed lobsters) or with rearing the larvae, which for spiny and slipper lobsters is generally a painstaking and protracted process. Notwithstanding these technical challenges, increasing market demand for the product is driving a substantial research and development effort around the world to develop commercial lobster farming technology. This chapter reports on the status of that effort, the successes and obstacles.

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia.

Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO2 in temperate (C-3) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C-3/C-4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C-4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.4 degrees C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C-4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.3 degrees C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

Agronomy looking forward, thinking broadly.

Global trends in human population and agriculture dictate that future calls made on the resources (physical, human, financial) and systems involved in producing food will be increasingly more demanding and complex. Both plant breeding and improved agronomy lift the potential yield of crops, a key component in progressing farm yield, so society can reasonably expect both agronomy as a science and agronomists as practitioners to contribute to the successful delivery of necessary change. By reflecting on current trends in agricultural production (diversification, intensification, integration, industrialisation, automation) and deconstructing a futuristic scenario of attempting agricultural production on Mars, it seems the skills agronomists will require involve not only the mandatory elements of their discipline but also additional skills that enable engagement with, even leadership of, teams who integrate (in sum or part) engineering, (agri-)business, economics and operational management, and build the social capital required to create and maintain a diverse array of enhanced and new ethical production systems and achieve increasing efficiencies within them.

Control techniques and management strategies for the problematic Navua sedge (Cyperus aromaticus)

Navua sedge, a member of the Cyperaceae family, is an aggressive weed of pastures in Fiji, Sri Lanka, Malay Peninsula, Vanuatu, Samoa, Solomons, and Tahiti and is now a weed of pastures and roadsides in north Queensland, Australia. Primarily restricted to areas with an annual rainfall exceeding 2500 mm, Navua sedge is capable of forming dense stands smothering many tropical pasture species. Seventeen herbicides were field tested at three sites in north Queensland, with glyphosate, halosulfuron, hexazinone, imazapic, imazapyr, or MSMA the most effective for Navua sedge control. Environmental problems such as persistence in soil, lack of selectivity and movement off-site may occur using some herbicides at the predicted LC90 control level rates. A seasonality trial using halosulfuron (97.5 g ai/ha) gave better Navua sedge control (84%) spraying March to September than spraying at other times (50%). In a frequency trial, sequential glyphosate applications (2,160 g ae/ha) every two months was more effective for continued Navua sedge control (67%) than a single application of glyphosate (36%), though loss of ground cover would occur. In a management trial, single applications of glyphosate (2,160 to 3,570 g ae/ha) using either a rope wick, ground foliar spraying or a rotary rope wick gave 59 to 73% control, while other treatments (rotary hoe (3%), slashing (-13%) or crushing (-30%)) were less effective. In a second management trial, four monthly rotary wick applications were much more effective (98%) than four monthly crushing applications (42%). An effective management plan must include the application of regular herbicide treatments to eliminate Navua sedge seed being added to the soil seed bank. Treatments that result in seed burial, for example, discing are likely to prolong seed persistence and should be avoided. The sprouting activity of vegetative propagules and root fragmentation needs to also be considered when selecting control options.