9 resultados para Working-age Population
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.
Improved understanding of the damage, ecology, and management of mirids and stinkbugs in Bollgard II
Resumo:
In recent years mirids and stinkbugs have emerged as important sucking pests in cotton. While stinkbugs are causing damage to bolls, mirids are causing damage to seedlings, squares and bolls. With the increasing adoption of Bollgard II and IPM approaches the use of broad-spectrum chemicals to kill Helicoverpa has been reduced and as a result mirids and stinkbugs are building to levels causing damage to bolls later in crop growth stages. Studies on stinkbugs by Dr Moazzem Khan revealed that green vegetable bug (GVB) caused significant boll damage and yield loss. A preliminary study by Dr Khan on mirids revealed that high mirid numbers at later growth stages also caused significant boll damage and that damage caused by mirids and GVB were similar. Mirids and stinkbugs therefore demand greater attention in order to minimise losses caused by these pests and to develop IPM strategies against these pests to enhance gains in IPM that have been made with Bt-transgenic cotton. Progress in this area of research will maintain sustainability and profitability of the Australian cotton industry. Mirid damage at early growth stages of cotton (up to squaring stage) has been studied in detail by Dr Khan. He found that all ages of mirids cause damage to young plants and damage by mirid nymphs is cumulative. Maximum damage occurs when the insect reaches the 4th and 5th nymphal stages. He also found that mirid feeding causes shedding of small and medium squares, and damaged large squares develop as ‘parrot beak’ bolls. Detailed studies at the boll stage, such as which stage of mirids is most damaging or which age boll is most vulnerable to feeding, is lacking. This information is a prerequisite to developing an IPM strategy for the pest in later crop growth stages. Understanding population change of the pest over time in relation to crop development is an important aspect for developing management strategies for the pest which is lacking for mirids in BollgardII. Predators and parasitoids are integral components of any IPM system and play an important part in regulating pest populations. Some generalist predators such as ants, spiders, damsel bugs and assassin bugs are known to predate on mirids. Nothing is known about parasitoids of mirids. Since green mirid (GM), Creontiades dilutus, is indigenous to Australia it is likely that we have one or more parasitoids of this mirid in Australia, but that possibility has not been investigated yet. The impact of the GVB adult parasitoid, Trichopoda giacomelli, has been studied by Dr Khan who found that the fly is established in the released areas and continues to spread. However, to get wider and greater impact, the fly should be released in new locations across the valleys. The insecticides registered for mirids and stinkbugs are mostly non-selective and are extremely disruptive to a wide range of beneficial insects. Use of these insecticides at stage I and II will minimise the impact of existing IPM programs. Therefore less disruptive control tactics including soft chemicals for mirids and stinkbugs are necessary. As with soft chemicals, salt mixtures, biopesticides based on fungal pathogens and attractants based on plant volatiles may be useful tools in managing mirids and stinkbugs with less or no disruption. Dr Khan has investigated salt mixture against mirids and GVB. While salt mixtures are quite effective and less disruptive, they are quite chemical specific. Not all chemicals mixed with salt will give the desired benefit. Therefore further investigation is needed to identify those chemicals that are effective with salt mixture against mirids and 3 of 37 GVB. Dr Caroline Hauxwell of DPI&F is working on fungal pathogen-based biopesticides against mirids and GVB and Drs Peter Gregg and Alice Del Socorro of Australian Cotton CRC are working on plant volatile-based attractants against mirids. Depending on their findings, inclusion of fungal-based biopestcides and plant volatile-based attractants in developing a management system against mirids and stinkbugs in cotton could be an important component of an IPM approach.
Resumo:
Hip height, body condition, subcutaneous fat, eye muscle area, percentage Bos taurus, fetal age and diet digestibility data were collected at 17 372 assessments on 2181 Brahman and tropical composite (average 28% Brahman) female cattle aged between 0.5 and 7.5 years of age at five sites across Queensland. The study validated the subtraction of previously published estimates of gravid uterine weight to correct liveweight to the non-pregnant status. Hip height and liveweight were linearly related (Brahman: P<0.001, R-2 = 58%; tropical composite P<0.001, R-2 = 67%). Liveweight varied by 12-14% per body condition score (5-point scale) as cows differed from moderate condition (P<0.01). Parallel effects were also found due to subcutaneous rump fat depth and eye muscle area, which were highly correlated with each other and body condition score (r = 0.7-0.8). Liveweight differed from average by 1.65-1.66% per mm of rump fat depth and 0.71-0.76% per cm(2) of eye muscle area (P<0.01). Estimated dry matter digestibility of pasture consumed had no consistent effect in predicting liveweight and was therefore excluded from final models. A method developed to estimate full liveweight of post-weaning age female beef cattle from the other measures taken predicted liveweight to within 10 and 23% of that recorded for 65 and 95% of cases, respectively. For a 95% chance of predicted group average liveweight (body condition score used) being within 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1% of actual group average liveweight required 23, 36, 62, 137 and 521 females, respectively, if precision and accuracy of measurements matches that used in the research. Non-pregnant Bos taurus female cattle were calculated to be 10-40% heavier than Brahmans at the same hip height and body condition, indicating a substantial conformational difference. The liveweight prediction method was applied to a validation population of 83 unrelated groups of cattle weighed in extensive commercial situations on 119 days over 18 months (20 917 assessments). Liveweight prediction in the validation population exceeded average recorded liveweight for weigh groups by an average of 19 kg (similar to 6%) demonstrating the difficulty of achieving accurate and precise animal measurements under extensive commercial grazing conditions.
Resumo:
Understanding the life history of exploited fish species is not only critical in developing stock assessments and productivity models, but has a dual function in the delineation of connectivity and geographical population structure. In this study, patterns in growth and length and age at sex change of Polydactylus macrochir, an ecologically and economically important protandrous estuarine teleost, were examined to provide preliminary information on the species' connectivity and geographic structure across northern Australia. Considerable variation in life history parameters was observed among the 18 locations sampled. Both unconstrained and constrained (t(0) = 0) estimates of von Bertalanffy growth function parameters differed significantly among all neighbouring locations with the exception of two locations in Queensland's east coast and two in Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria waters, respectively. Comparisons of back-calculated length-at-age 2 provided additional evidence for growth differences among some locations, but were not significantly different among locations in the south-eastern Gulf of Carpentaria or on Queensland's east coast. The length and age at sex change differed markedly among locations, with fish from the east coast of Australia changing sex from males to females at significantly greater lengths and ages than elsewhere. Sex change occurred earliest at locations within Queensland's Gulf of Carpentaria, where a large proportion of small, young females were recorded. The observed differences suggest that P. macrochir likely form a number of geographically and/or reproductively distinct groups in Australian waters and suggest that future studies examining connectivity and geographic population structure of estuarine fishes will likely benefit from the inclusion of comparisons of life history parameters. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Many aquatic species are linked to environmental drivers such as temperature and salinity through processes such as spawning, recruitment and growth. Information is needed on how fished species may respond to altered environmental drivers under climate change so that adaptive management strategies can be developed. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a highly prized species of the Indo-West Pacific, whose recruitment and growth is driven by river discharge. We developed a monthly age- and length-structured population model for barramundi. Monte Carlo Markov Chain simulations were used to explore the population's response to altered river discharges under modelled total licenced water abstraction and projected climate change, derived and downscaled from Global Climate Model A1FI. Mean values of exploitable biomass, annual catch, maximum sustainable yield and spawning stock size were significantly reduced under scenarios where river discharge was reduced; despite including uncertainty. These results suggest that the upstream use of water resources and climate change have potential to significantly reduce downstream barramundi stock sizes and harvests and may undermine the inherent resilience of estuarine-dependent fisheries. © 2012 CSIRO.
Resumo:
Summary: This research represents the first age-based demographic assessment of pearl perch, Glaucosoma scapulare (Ramsay, 1881), a highly valued species endemic to coastal waters off central eastern Australia. The study was conducted across the species' distribution that encompasses two state jurisdictions (Queensland in the north and New South Wales in the south) using data collected approximately 10 years apart in each state. Estimates of age were made by counting annuli (validated using marginal increment ratios) in sectioned sagittal otoliths. The maximum estimated age was 19 years. Pearl perch attained approx. 12 cm fork length (FL) after one year, 21 cm FL after 2 years and 29 cm FL after 3 years. Fish from the southern end of the species' distribution grew significantly more slowly than those from the northern part of its range. Commercial landings in the north were characterized by greater proportions of larger (>40 cm FL) and older (>6 years) fish than those in the south, with landings mainly of fish between 3 and 6 years of age. The observed variations in age-based demographics of pearl perch highlight the need for a better understanding of patterns of movement and reproduction in developing a model of population dynamics and life-history for this important species. There is a clear need for further, concurrent, age-based studies on pearl perch in the northern and southern parts of its distribution to support the conclusions of the present study based on data collected a decade apart. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.
Resumo:
Sagittal otoliths were used to age the samples of Tilapia mariae collected from a coastal river and an impoundment. Validation of sagittae checks was achieved using both quantitative marginal increment analysis and by tetracycline marking of the otoliths of fish kept in tanks and in a farm dam. The annulus pattern on the otoliths was generally clear and their formation appeared to be temperature related and largely completed in the Austral spring around September and October. Male T. mariae grow faster and larger than females and the maximum ages of fish from the coastal river and impoundment was 9+ and 4+ years, respectively. Past fish surveys and the absence of older age classes in the impoundment population would suggest that this population was only very recently established.
Resumo:
Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was investigated as a potential rapid method of estimating fish age from whole otoliths of Saddletail snapper (Lutjanus malabaricus). Whole otoliths from 209 Saddletail snapper were extracted and the NIR spectral characteristics were acquired over a spectral range of 800–2780 nm. Partial least-squares models (PLS) were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra and reference-validated age estimates (based on traditional sectioned otolith increments) to predict age for independent otolith samples. Predictive models developed for a specific season and geographical location performed poorly against a different season and geographical location. However, overall PLS regression statistics for predicting a combined population incorporating both geographic location and season variables were: coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.94, root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) = 1.54 for age estimation, indicating that Saddletail age could be predicted within 1.5 increment counts. This level of accuracy suggests the method warrants further development for Saddletail snapper and may have potential for other fish species. A rapid method of fish age estimation could have the potential to reduce greatly both costs of time and materials in the assessment and management of commercial fisheries.
Resumo:
The development of fishery indicators is a crucial undertaking as it ultimately provides evidence to stakeholders about the status of fished species such as population size and survival rates. In Queensland, as in many other parts of the world, age-abundance indicators (e.g. fish catch rate and/or age composition data) are traditionally used as the evidence basis because they provide information on species life history traits as well as on changes in fishing pressures and population sizes. Often, however, the accuracy of the information from age-abundance indicators can be limited due to missing or biased data. Consequently, improved statistical methods are required to enhance the accuracy, precision and decision-support value of age-abundance indicators.