The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Pimelea trichostachya poisoning (St George disease) in horses

A dense population of Pimelea trichostachya plants (Family Thymelaeaceae) in pasture poisoned a horse herd in southern inland Queensland in October-November 2005. Plant density was 2 to 45 g wet weight/m2 (mean 16 g/m2) from 5 to 69 plants/m2 (mean 38 plants/m2) representing 3 to 20% (mean 9%) of the volume of pasture on offer. Ten of 35 mares, fillies and geldings were affected. Clinical signs were loss of body weight, profound lethargy, serous nasal discharge, severe watery diarrhoea and subcutaneous oedema of the intermandibular space, chest and ventral midline. Pathological findings were anaemia, leucocytopenia, hypoproteinaemia, dilatation of the right ventricle of the heart, dilated hepatic portal veins and periportal hepatic sinusoids (peliosis hepatis), alimentary mucosal hyperaemia and oedema of mesenteric lymph nodes. Cattle grazing the same pasture were affected by Pimelea poisoning simultaneously. Removal of the horses to Pimelea-free pasture initiated recovery. The one other incident of this syndrome, previously only recognised in cattle in Australia, occurred in horses, in South Australia in 2002, with access to a dense Pimelea simplex population.

An overview of integrated pest management (IPM) in north-eastern Australian grain farming systems: Past, present and future prospects

The authors overview integrated pest management (IPM) in grain crops in north-eastern Australia, which is defined as the area north of latitude 32°S. Major grain crops in this region include the coarse grains (winter and summer cereals), oilseeds and pulses. IPM in these systems is complicated by the diversity of crops, pests, market requirements and cropping environments. In general, the pulse crops are at greatest risk, followed by oilseeds and then by cereal grains. Insecticides remain a key grain pest management tool in north-eastern Australia. IPM in grain crops has benefited considerably through the increased adoption of new, more selective insecticides and biopesticides for many caterpillar pests, in particular Helicoverpa spp. and loopers, and the identification of pest-crop scenarios where spraying is unnecessary (e.g. for most Creontiades spp. populations in soybeans). This has favoured the conservation of natural enemies in north-eastern Australia grain crops, and has arguably assisted in the management of silverleaf whitefly in soybeans in coastal Queensland. However, control of sucking pests and podborers such as Maruca vitrata remains a major challenge for IPM in summer pulses. Because these crops have very low pest-damage tolerances and thresholds, intervention with disruptive insecticides is frequently required, particularly during podfill. The threat posed by silverleaf whitefly demands ongoing multi-pest IPM research, development and extension as this pest can flare under favourable seasonal conditions, especially where disruptive insecticides are used injudiciously. The strong links between researchers and industry have facilitated the adoption of IPM practices in north-eastern Australia and augers well for future pest challenges and for the development and promotion of new and improved IPM tactics.

Tan spot: A new disease of pyrethrum caused by Microsphaeropsis tanaceti sp. nov

The isolation frequency of Microsphaeropsis sp. in spring in association with necrotic lesions on leaves in Tasmanian pyrethrum (Tanacetum cinerariifolium) fields has increased substantially since first identification in 2001. Examination of morphological features and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer region (ITS) resulted in the identification of a new species, herein described as Microsphaeropsis tanaceti sp. nov. The pathogenicity of three M. tanaceti isolates to two pyrethrum cultivars was confirmed by inoculating glasshouse-grown plants in three experiments. No significant differences in the susceptibility of the two cultivars to infection by M. tanaceti were found. Symptoms were tan-coloured spots which coalesced around the margins of the leaves. Therefore, the name 'tan spot' is proposed for this new disease of pyrethrum. The sensitivity of seven M. tanaceti isolates to difenoconazole and azoxystrobin, commonly used fungicides for the management of foliar diseases in spring, was assessed under in vitro conditions. Sensitivity testing for difenoconazole was conducted using a mycelial growth assay on potato dextrose agar, whilst testing for sensitivity to azoxystrobin used a conidial germination assay on water agar. Microsphaeropsis tanaceti was found to be more sensitive to azoxystrobin than difenoconazole, with complete inhibition of conidial germination at concentrations above 0.625 µg a.i. mL-1. By comparison, concentrations of 50 µg a.i. difenoconazole mL-1 or greater were required for significant inhibition of mycelial growth. It therefore appears likely that there is currently some control of tan spot as a result of the use of azoxystrobin and to a lesser extent, difenoconazole, for the control of other diseases.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Heritability of reproductive traits and genetic correlations with growth in the black tiger prawn Penaeus monodon reared in tanks

Captive-reared broodstock of the black tiger prawn (Penaeus monodon) have exhibited poor reproductive performance limiting attempts to domesticate this species. The potential for improved reproductive performance was assessed by determining heritabilities of four measures of reproductive performance, their genetic correlations with each other and with growth rate and weight at age. Heritability estimates (h2 ± S.E.) obtained from √ (days to spawn), √ (egg number), √ (nauplii number) and arcsin √ (proportion hatched) were 0.47 ± 0.15, 0.41 ± 0.18, 0.27 ± 0.16, and 0.18 ± 0.16, respectively. Estimates of genetic correlations between reproductive traits and weight at age, or growth rate were less than 0.5 except for √ (egg number) and weight at 54 weeks (0.93 ± 0.19) and √ (egg number) and 16-54-week growth (0.63 ± 0.29).

Phenotypic variation in natural populations of kikuyu in Australia

The quality of tropical grasses is a major limitation to animal production in tropical and subtropical areas. This is mainly associated with the lower digestibility because C4 grasses have higher fibre levels. Any improvement in quality would require a reduction in the lignin and an increase in the digestion of the neutral detergent fibre content of these plants (Clark and Wilson 1993). Kikuyu (Pennisetum clandestinum) is an important grass for the dairy and beef industries of the subtropics of Australia, South Africa and New Zealand (Mears 1970). Increased digestibility could substantially improve animal production in these industries. These experiments investigated the variation in agronomic and quality of natural populations selected from diverse regions within Australia. Runners of 14 kikuyu selections were collected by project staff or local agronomists from areas considered to have grown kikuyu for over 30 years while Whittet and Noonan were established by seed. Entries were established as single spaced plants on a 1.5 m grid in a randomised block with 3 replicates and evaluated under irrigation at Mutdapilly (brown podsol) and Wollongbar (red ferrosol). Foliage height, forage production and runner yield were assessed along with crude protein (CP), in vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD), metabolisable energy (ME), acid detergent fibre (ADF) and neutral detergent fibre (NDF) content of the leaf in autumn, winter and spring.

The potential geographic distribution of the invasive weed Senna obtusifolia in Australia

Senna obtusifolia (sicklepod) is an invasive weed of northern Australia, where it significantly impacts agricultural productivity and alters natural ecosystem structure and function. Although currently restricted to northern regions, the potential for S. obtusifolia to spread south is not known. Using the eco-climatic model CLIMEX, this study simulated the potential geographic distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia under two scenarios. Model parameters for both scenarios were derived from the distribution of S. obtusifolia throughout North and Central America. The first scenario used these base model parameters to predict the distribution of S. obtusifolia in Australia, whilst the second model predicted the distribution of a cold susceptible S. obtusifolia ecotype that is reported to occur in the USA. Both models predicted the potential for an extensive S. obtusifolia distribution, with the first model indicating suitable climatic conditions occurring predominantly in coastal regions from the Northern Territory, to far north Queensland and into northern Victoria. The cold susceptible ecotype displayed a comparatively reduced distribution in the southern parts of Australia, where inappropriate temperatures, a lack of thermal accumulation and cold stress restrict the invasion south to the coastal regions of central New South Wales. The extent of the predicted distribution of both ecotypes of S. obtusifolia reinforces the need for strategic management at a national scale.

Potential for using through-boring to improve groundline treatment of Australian wood species: A preliminary study.

An aging electricity distribution system and reduced availability of naturally durable tropical hardwoods in Australia will combine in the next decade to produce a major shortage of poles. One approach to mitigating this shortage is to utilize lower durability species and improve the penetration of preservatives into the refractory heartwood by introducing additional pretreatment processes. A potential method for improving preservative penetration in the critical ground-line zone is through-boring. This process, in which holes are drilled through the pole perpendicular to the grain in the ground-line zone, is widely used in the western United States for treatment of Douglas-fir and may be Suitable for many Australian wood species. The potential for improving heartwood penetration in eucalypts with alkaline-copper-quaternary (ACQ) compound was assessed on heartwood specimens from four species (Eucalyptus cloeziana F.Muell., E. grandis W.Hill ex Maiden, E. obliqua L'Her. and E. pellita F.Muell.) and Lophostemon confertus (R.Br.) Peter G.Wilson & J.T.Wateril). Longitudinal ACQ penetration was extremely shallow in L. confertus and only slightly better in E. cloeziana. Longitudinal penetration was good in both E. obliqua and E. pellita, although there was some variation in treatment results with length of pressure period. The results suggest that through-boring might be a reasonable approach for achieving heartwood penetration in some Eucalyptus species, although further studies are required to assess additional treatment schedules and to determine the effects of the process oil flexural properties of the poles.

Refining the process of agent selection through understanding plant demography and plant response to herbivory

Understanding plant demography and plant response to herbivory is critical to the selection of effective weed biological control agents. We adopt the metaphor of 'filters' to suggest how agent prioritisation may be improved to narrow our choices down to those likely to be most effective in achieving the desired weed management outcome. Models can serve to capture our level of knowledge (or ignorance) about our study system and we illustrate how one type of modelling approach (matrix models) may be useful in identifying the weak link in a plant life cycle by using a hypothetical and an actual weed example (Parkinsonia aculeata). Once the vulnerable stage has been identified we propose that studying plant response to herbivory (simulated and/or actual) can help identify the guilds of herbivores to which a plant is most likely to succumb. Taking only potentially effective agents through the filter of host specificity may improve the chances of releasing safe and effective agents. The methods we outline may not always lead us definitively to the successful agent(s), but such an empirical, data-driven approach will make the basis for agent selection explicit and serve as testable hypotheses once agents are released.

IXth International Symposium on Thysanoptera and Tospoviruses, 31st August-4th September 2009, Sea World Resort, Queensland, Australia.

This proceedings contains abstracts of 108 papers focusing on the different Tospovirus diseases of various crops and their thysanopteran vectors. The genetics of these pests and pathogens, the different methods used in their control and their geographical distribution are also highlighted.

The conservation status of the world’s reptiles

Effective and targeted conservation action requires detailed information about species, their distribution, systematics and ecology as well as the distribution of threat processes which affect them. Knowledge of reptilian diversity remains surprisingly disparate, and innovative means of gaining rapid insight into the status of reptiles are needed in order to highlight urgent conservation cases and inform environmental policy with appropriate biodiversity information in a timely manner. We present the first ever global analysis of extinction risk in reptiles, based on a random representative sample of 1500 species (16% of all currently known species). To our knowledge, our results provide the first analysis of the global conservation status and distribution patterns of reptiles and the threats affecting them, highlighting conservation priorities and knowledge gaps which need to be addressed urgently to ensure the continued survival of the world’s reptiles. Nearly one in five reptilian species are threatened with extinction, with another one in five species classed as Data Deficient. The proportion of threatened reptile species is highest in freshwater environments, tropical regions and on oceanic islands, while data deficiency was highest in tropical areas, such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia, and among fossorial reptiles. Our results emphasise the need for research attention to be focussed on tropical areas which are experiencing the most dramatic rates of habitat loss, on fossorial reptiles for which there is a chronic lack of data, and on certain taxa such as snakes for which extinction risk may currently be underestimated due to lack of population information. Conservation actions specifically need to mitigate the effects of human-induced habitat loss and harvesting, which are the predominant threats to reptiles.

Identification of a new Polerovirus (family Luteoviridae) associated with cotton bunchy top disease in Australia

Cotton bunchy top (CBT) disease has caused significant yield losses in Australia and is now managed by control of its vector, the cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii). Its mode of transmission and similarities in symptoms to cotton Blue Disease suggested it may also be caused by a luteovirus or related virus. Degenerate primers to conserved regions of the genomes of the family Luteoviridae were used to amplify viral cDNAs from CBT-affected cotton leaf tissue that were not present in healthy plants. Partial genome sequence of a new virus (Cotton bunchy top virus, CBTV) was obtained spanning part of the RNA-dependent-RNA-polymerase (RdRP), all of the coat protein and part of the aphid-transmission protein. CBTV sequences could be detected in viruliferous aphids able to transmit CBT, but not aphids from non-symptomatic plants, indicating that it is associated with the disease and may be the causal agent. All CBTV open-reading frames had their closest similarity to viruses of the genus Polerovirus. The partial RdRP had 90 % amino acid identity to the RdRP of Cotton leafroll dwarf virus (CLRDV) that causes cotton blue disease, while other parts of the genome were more similar to other poleroviruses. The sequence similarity and genome organization of CBTV suggest that it should be considered a new member of the genus Polerovirus. This partial genome sequence of CBTV opens up the possibility for developing diagnostic tests for detection of the virus in cotton plants, aphids and weeds as well as alternative strategies for engineering CBT resistance in cotton plants through biotechnology. © 2012 Australasian Plant Pathology Society Inc.