Time-dependent instantaneous mortality rates from multiple tagging experiments with exact times of release and recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l'Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107-117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).

The critical role of extreme heat for maize production in the United States

Statistical studies of rainfed maize yields in the United States(1) and elsewhere(2) have indicated two clear features: a strong negative yield response to accumulation of temperatures above 30 degrees C (or extreme degree days (EDD)), and a relatively weak response to seasonal rainfall. Here we show that the process-based Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is able to reproduce both of these relationships in the Midwestern United States and provide insight into underlying mechanisms. The predominant effects of EDD in APSIM are associated with increased vapour pressure deficit, which contributes to water stress in two ways: by increasing demand for soil water to sustain a given rate of carbon assimilation, and by reducing future supply of soil water by raising transpiration rates. APSIM computes daily water stress as the ratio of water supply to demand, and during the critical month of July this ratio is three times more responsive to 2 degrees C warming than to a 20% precipitation reduction. The results suggest a relatively minor role for direct heat stress on reproductive organs at present temperatures in this region. Effects of elevated CO2 on transpiration efficiency should reduce yield sensitivity to EDD in the coming decades, but at most by 25%.

Polyphasic characterization of four new plant pathogenic Phyllosticta species from China, Japan, and the United States

The black rot disease of Vitis species and other host genera of Vitacease is caused by Phyllosticta ampelicida and allied taxa which is considered to be a species complex. In this paper, we introduce four new species of Phyllosticta, including two from the P. ampelicida complex, based on a polyphasic characterization including disease symptoms and host association, morphology, and molecular phylogeny. The phylogenetic analysis was conducted based on the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region and a combined multi-locus alignment of the ITS, actin (ACT), partial translation elongation factor 1-alpha (TEF-1), and glyceraldehydes 3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GPDH) gene regions. Our study confirms the phylogenetic distinctions of the four new species, as well as their phenotypic differences with known species in the genus.