Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Better Macadamia Crop Forecasting - Part 2

The continually expanding macadamia industry needs an accurate crop forecasting system to allow it to develop effective crop handling and marketing strategies, particularly when the industry faces recurring cycles of unsustainably high and low commodity prices. This project aims to provide the AMS with a robust, reliable predictive model of national crop volume within 10% of the actual crop by 1 April each year by factoring known seasonal, environmental, cultural, climatic, management and biological constraints, together with the existing AMS database which includes data on tree numbers, tree age, variety, location and previous season's production.

Light environment and tree development of young Acacia melanoxylon in mixed-species regrowth forest, Tasmania, Australia

Blackwood (Acacia melanoxylon R. Br.) is a valuable leguminous cabinetwood species which is commonly found as a canopy or subcanopy tree in a broad range of mixed-species moist forests on tablelands and coastal escarpments in eastern Australia. This paper reports on the competitive light environment of a commercially valuable multi-species regrowth forest in NW Tasmania, in order to define some of the functional interactions and competitive dynamics of these stands. Comparative observations were made of the internal forest light environment in response to small-gap silvicultural treatments, in a young regenerative mix of three codominant tree species. Light measurements were made during periods of maximum external irradiance of the regrowth Eucalyptus obliqua/A. melanoxylon forest canopy at age 10.5 years. This was at a time of vigourous stand development, 4.5 years following the application of three experimental silvicultural treatments whose effects were observed in comparison with an untreated canopy sample designed as a control. Minimal irradiance was observed within and beneath the dense subcanopy of the native nurse species (Pomaderris apetala) which closely surrounds young blackwood regeneration. Unlike current plantation nurse systems, the dense foliage of the native broadleaved Pomaderris all but eliminated direct side-light and low-angle illumination of the young blackwood, from the beginning of tree establishment. The results demonstrated that retention of these densely stocked native codominants effectively suppressed both size and frequency of blackwood branches on the lower bole, through effective and persistent interception of sunlight. Vigorous young blackwood crowns later overtopped the codominant nurse species, achieving a predictable height of branch-free bole. This competitive outcome offers a valuable tool for management of blackwood crown dynamics, stem form and branch habit through manipulation of light environment in young native regrowth systems. Results demonstrate that effective self-pruning in the lower bole of blackwood is achieved through a marked reduction in direct and diffuse sunlight incident on the lower crown, notably to less than 10-15% of full sunlight intensity during conditions of maximum insolation. The results also contain insights for the improved design of mixed-species plantation nurse systems using these or functionally similar species' combinations. Based on evidence presented here for native regrowth forest, plantation nurse systems for blackwood will need to achieve 85-90% interception of external side-light during early years of tree development if self-pruning is to emulate the results achieved in the native nurse system.