Scaling results up from a plot and paddock scale to a property - a case study from a long-term grazing experiment in northern Australia

Grazing experiments are usually used to quantify and demonstrate the biophysical impact of grazing strategies, with the Wambiana grazing experiment being one of the longest running such experiments in northern Australia. Previous economic analyses of this experiment suggest that there is a major advantage in stocking at a fixed, moderate stocking rate or in using decision rules allowing flexible stocking to match available feed supply. The present study developed and applied a modelling procedure to use data collected at the small plot, land type and paddock scales at the experimental site to simulate the property-level implications of a range of stocking rates for a breeding-finishing cattle enterprise. The greatest economic performance was achieved at a moderate stocking rate of 10.5 adult equivalents 100 ha(-1). For the same stocking rate over time, the fixed stocking strategy gave a greater economic performance than strategies that involved moderate changes to stocking rates each year in response to feed supply. Model outcomes were consistent with previous economic analyses using experimental data. Further modelling of the experimental data is warranted and similar analyses could be applied to other major grazing experiments to allow the scaling of results to greater scales.

Improving Knowledge and Practices in Mango Supply Chains

Mangoes consigned to domestic markets suffered from fruit quality problems from 1997 to 2000. A high incidence of disease breakdown and green-ripe fruit resulted in loss of confidence by marketers, and reduced profits for everyone from grower to retailer. The ‘Better Mangoes’ project was initiated to identify where, and why quality was being lost, and to use this information to improve the knowledge and practices of supply chain businesses.

Supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of North and Central West Queensland

While, in the past, sheep have been predominantly reared and grazed in western Queensland for wool, interest in the sheep meat industry increased when wool prices became depressed. For north west and central west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. The capability of the Mitchell grass downs to provide sufficient numbers of export quality sheep under the variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources has been simulated. Sheep numbers were found to be insufficient to maintain a consistent supply for live export. However, raising marking rates and lowering mortalities effectively increased reproductive performance to a level at which a surplus for export could be sustainable. Other practices might be required for the liveweight specifications to be met. 24th Biennial Conference. Adelaide, South Australia.

Simulation of the supply capability of sheep on the Mitchell grass downs of north west Queensland

Sheep in western Queensland have been predominantly reared for wool. When wool prices became depressed interest in the sheep meat industry, increased. For north west Queensland producers, opportunities may exist to participate in live sheep and meat export to Asia. A simulation model was developed to determine whether this sheep producing area has the capability to provide sufficient numbers of sheep under variable climatic conditions while sustaining the land resources. Maximum capacity for sustainability of resources (as described by stock numbers) was derived from an in-depth study of the agricultural and pastoral potential of Queensland. Decades of sheep production and climatic data spanning differing seasonal conditions were collated for analysis. A ruminant biology model adapted from Grazplan was used to simulate pregnancy rate. Empirical equations predict mortalities, marking rates, and weight characteristics of sheep of various ages from simple climatic measures, stocking rate and reproductive status. The initial age structure of flocks was determined by running the model for several years with historical climatic conditions. Drought management strategies such as selling a proportion of wethers progressively down to two-tooth and oldest ewes were incorporated. Management decisions such as time of joining, age at which ewes were cast-for-age, wether turn-off age and turning-off rate of lambs vary with geographical area and can be specified at run time. The model is run for sequences of climatic conditions generated stochastically from distributions based on historical climatic data correlated in some instances. The model highlights the difficulties of sustaining a consistent supply of sheep under variable climatic conditions.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops. 1. Mineral N supply estimated from laboratory incubations and field application of stockpiled and wet sludge

Piggery pond sludge (PPS) was applied, as-collected (Wet PPS) and following stockpiling for 12 months (Stockpiled PPS), to a sandy Sodosol and clay Vertosol at sites on the Darling Downs of Queensland. Laboratory measures of N availability were carried out on unamended and PPS-amended soils to investigate their value in estimating supplementary N needs of crops in Australia's northern grains region. Cumulative net N mineralised from the long-term (30 weeks) leached aerobic incubation was described by a first-order single exponential model. The mineralisation rate constant (0.057/week) was not significantly different between Control and PPS treatments or across soil types, when the amounts of initial mineral N applied in PPS treatments were excluded. Potentially mineralisable N (No) was significantly increased by the application of Wet PPS, and increased with increasing rate of application. Application of Wet PPS significantly increased the total amount of inorganic N leached compared with the Control treatments. Mineral N applied in Wet PPS contributed as much to the total mineral N status of the soil as did that which mineralised over time from organic N. Rates of C02 evolution during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation indicated that the Stockpiled PPS was more stabilised (19-28% of applied organic C mineralised) than the WetPPS (35-58% of applied organic C mineralised), due to higher lignin content in the former. Net nitrate-N produced following 12 weeks of aerobic non-leached incubation was highly correlated with net nitrate-N leached during 12 weeks of aerobic incubation (R^2 = 0.96), although it was <60% of the latter in both sandy and clayey soils. Anaerobically mineralisable N determined by waterlogged incubation of laboratory PPS-amended soil samples increased with increasing application rate of Wet PPS. Anaerobically minemlisable N from field-moist soil was well correlated with net N mineralised during 30 weeks of aerobic leached incubation (R^2 =0.90 sandy soil; R^2=0.93 clay soil). In the clay soil, the amount of mineral N produced from all the laboratory incubations was significantly correlated with field-measured nitrate-N in the soil profile (0-1.5 m depth) after 9 months of weed-free fallow following PPS application. In contrast, only anaerobic mineralisable N was significantly correlated with field nitrate-N in the sandy soil. Anaerobic incubation would, therefore, be suitable as a rapid practical test to estimate potentially mineralisable N following applications of different PPS materials in the field.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Developing improved supply chains for temperate fruits in transitional Asian economies of Thailand and Vietnam.

Asia's increasing demand for both tropical and temperate fruit is projected to grow significantly. Compared with most developed countries, the production of temperate fruits (peach, nectarine, plum and apple) has expanded rapidly in China over the past 20 years. In contrast, current production of plums and peaches in neighbouring countries (Thailand and Vietnam) is very low but their fruit enters the market earlier. Thailand and Vietnam have enormous potential to satisfy a market window in the northern hemisphere period from March to May inclusive when there is little or no stone fruit on the Asian market. In Vietnam, fruit is harvested in an immature state to avoid disease and fruit fly problems and consequently lacks size and flavour. Approximately 30-40% of locally produced fruit in Vietnam does not reach market due to disease and poor handling during picking and transport. In Thailand, much of the infrastructure needed to transport, store, process and market temperate fruits successfully are now in place. However, there are currently no cool chain management or quality assurance systems to ensure a fresh product reaches the consumer with minimal deterioration. In Vietnam, growing stone fruit under the traditional system with little or minimal inputs, the farmer may receive between AUD3,000-5,000 per ha. In comparison, under higher input systems incorporating fertiliser, irrigation and pest and disease management, net returns can be increased seven-fold. Strengths and weaknesses of the current supply chains in these two countries are discussed.

Strategic Analysis: A key factor in developing horticultural supply chains in transitional Asian economies

Globalisation is set to have a major impact on world horticultural production and distribution of fruit and vegetables throughout the world. In contrast to developing countries such as China, production and consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables in most developed countries is relatively static. For developed countries, we are starting to see consolidation in the number of farms producing fruit and vegetables with falling or static prices and real farm incomes. Global supply chains are now dominated by a few large multi-national retailers supplied by preferred trans-national distribution companies. The major competitive advantages that are emerging are consistency of supply of high quality product over an extended season and the control of genetic resources and their marketing. To capture these new competitive advantages, new strategic analyses and planning processes must be implemented. In the past, strategic analyses and planning has been undertaken on an ad hoc basis without accurate global intelligence. In the future, working ‘on the supply chain’ will become equally, if not more important, than working ‘in the supply chain’. A revised approach to strategic planning, which encompasses and adjusts for the changes caused by globalisation, is urgently needed. A new 6-step strategic analyses process is described.

Using a supply chain approach to guide R&D

Consumers today are presented with an increasing array of products. The growing competition for consumer expenditure requires a whole of supply chain approach to maintain market share for existing cultivars and to successfully commercialise new cultivars. The supply chain needs to deliver value and satisfaction to the end customer and profitability to their members. Critical to getting the product right is developing inherent robustness into the cultivar, and developing processes and systems through the whole supply chain that maintain product quality and add value. This paper describes the approach we have used in working with supply chains in Australia and Indonesia to identify priority areas for improvement. Our experience demonstrates the need for a champion in the supply chain with significant influence and a desire to improve. The paper also describes our approach towards improving a specific supply chain to achieve successful commercialisation of a new cultivar. The cultivar was primarily selected for good production characteristics and attractive visual appeal. The performance of the fruit is being monitored from farm to retail shelf to identify points where quality is lost and practices can be improved. A targeted R&D program is investigating ways of improving production efficiency (nutrition, flowering and canopy management), maturity standards to optimise flavour, harvesting and packing practices to reduce skin damage, and ripening and handling practices to optimise shelf life. This integrated approach is based on similar approaches used to improve the performance of existing mango and avocado cultivars.

Adoption of environmental assurance in pastoral industry supply chains - Market failure and beyond

This paper describes adoption rates of environmental assurance within meat and wool supply chains, and discusses this in terms of market interest and demand for certified 'environmentally friendly' products, based on phone surveys and personal interviews with pastoral producers, meat and wool processors, wholesalers and retailers, and domestic consumers. Members of meat and wool supply chains, particularly pastoral producers, are both aware of and interested in implementing various forms of environmental assurance, but significant costs combined with few private benefits have resulted in low adoption rates. The main reason for the lack of benefits is that the end user (the consumer) does not value environmental assurance and is not willing to pay for it. For this reason, global food and fibre supply chains, which compete to supply consumers with safe and quality food at the lowest price, resist public pressure to implement environmental assurance. This market failure is further exacerbated by highly variable environmental and social production standards required of primary producers in different countries, and the disparate levels of government support provided to them. Given that it is the Australian general public and not markets that demand environmental benefits from agriculture, the Australian government has a mandate to use public funds to counter this market failure. A national farm environmental policy should utilise a range of financial incentives to reward farmers for delivering general public good environmental outcomes, with these specified and verified through a national environmental assurance scheme.

Integrated pest management and supply chain improvement for mangoes in the Philippines and Australia

This project will incorporate two strategies for improving industry sustainability in the Philippines and Australia: (a) developing improved field management and quarantine monitoring and detection of mango pests and diseases; and (b) working with selected mango supply chains to identify and test areas for improvement.

A framework for optimising capital investment and operations in livestock logistics

Despite the longevity, scale and importance of northern Australia's beef industry, recent disruptions to external markets have demonstrated a degree of vulnerability to shocks in the supply chain. Matching the industry's long-evident resilience to climatic variability with resilience to changes in markets and supply chains requires careful planning. One component of this is how investments in infrastructure will need to be planned to facilitate adaptive responses to market changes. This paper provides an outline of a modelling framework that links strategic and operational dynamic models of logistics along the supply chain from the property to the abattoir or port. A novelty of the methodology is that it takes into account the high granularity of individual livestock transport vehicle movements and the ability to scale up to an almost complete view of logistics costs across the entire beef industry of northern Australia. The paper illustrates how the methodology could be used to examine the effects of changes in logistics infrastructure on efficiency and costs using examples from the states of Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland.