Revised benefits and costs of eradicating the red imported fire ant

The paper revisits estimates of cost/benefit for eradication in Australia provided in 2001 which were based largely on information about a US ecosystem. The study had two major components; spread modelling using a cellular automation model provided by Joe Scanlan and an impact analysis undertaken by the remaining authors. The revised figures provided in this study increased the damage estimate from $2.8 billion to $45 billion and the benefit-cost ratio of eradication efforts improved from 25:1 to 390:1.

Impact of control strategies on bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) mortality, seedling recruitment, population dynamics, pasture yield and cost analysis

Bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) is an invasive weed that has the potential to greatly reduce biodiversity and pasture productivity in northern Australia’s rangelands. This paper reports an approach to develop best practice options for controlling medium to dense infestations of bellyache bush using combinations of control methods. The efficacy of five single treatments including foliar spraying, slashing, stick raking, burning and do nothing (control) were compared against 15 combinations of these treatments over 4 successive years. Treatments were evaluated using several attributes, including plant mortality, changes in population demographics, seedling recruitment, pasture yield and cost of treatment. Foliar spraying once each year for 4 years proved the most cost-effective control strategy, with no bellyache bush plants recorded at the end of the study. Single applications of slashing, stick raking and to a lesser extent burning, when followed up with foliar spraying also led to significantly reduced densities of bellyache bush and changed the population from a growing one to a declining one. Total experimental cost estimates over 4 successive years for treatments where burning, stick raking, foliar spraying, and slashing were followed with foliar spraying were AU$408, AU$584, AU$802 and AU$789 ha–1, respectively. Maximum pasture yield of 5.4 t ha–1 occurred with repeated foliar spraying. This study recommends that treatment combinations using either foliar spraying alone or as a follow up with slashing, stick raking or burning are best practice options following consideration of the level of control, changes in pasture yield and cost effectiveness.

Are high-impact species predictable? An analysis of naturalised grasses in northern Australia

Predicting which species are likely to cause serious impacts in the future is crucial for targeting management efforts, but the characteristics of such species remain largely unconfirmed. We use data and expert opinion on tropical and subtropical grasses naturalised in Australia since European settlement to identify naturalised and high-impact species and subsequently to test whether high-impact species are predictable. High-impact species for the three main affected sectors (environment, pastoral and agriculture) were determined by assessing evidence against pre-defined criteria. Twenty-one of the 155 naturalised species (14%) were classified as high-impact, including four that affected more than one sector. High-impact species were more likely to have faster spread rates (regions invaded per decade) and to be semi-aquatic. Spread rate was best explained by whether species had been actively spread (as pasture), and time since naturalisation, but may not be explanatory as it was tightly correlated with range size and incidence rate. Giving more weight to minimising the chance of overlooking high-impact species, a priority for biosecurity, meant a wider range of predictors was required to identify high-impact species, and the predictive power of the models was reduced. By-sector analysis of predictors of high impact species was limited by their relative rarity, but showed sector differences, including to the universal predictors (spread rate and habitat) and life history. Furthermore, species causing high impact to agriculture have changed in the past 10 years with changes in farming practice, highlighting the importance of context in determining impact. A rationale for invasion ecology is to improve the prediction and response to future threats. Although our study identifies some universal predictors, it suggests improved prediction will require a far greater emphasis on impact rather than invasiveness, and will need to account for the individual circumstances of affected sectors and the relative rarity of high-impact species.

Strategic Analysis: A key factor in developing horticultural supply chains in transitional Asian economies

Globalisation is set to have a major impact on world horticultural production and distribution of fruit and vegetables throughout the world. In contrast to developing countries such as China, production and consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables in most developed countries is relatively static. For developed countries, we are starting to see consolidation in the number of farms producing fruit and vegetables with falling or static prices and real farm incomes. Global supply chains are now dominated by a few large multi-national retailers supplied by preferred trans-national distribution companies. The major competitive advantages that are emerging are consistency of supply of high quality product over an extended season and the control of genetic resources and their marketing. To capture these new competitive advantages, new strategic analyses and planning processes must be implemented. In the past, strategic analyses and planning has been undertaken on an ad hoc basis without accurate global intelligence. In the future, working ‘on the supply chain’ will become equally, if not more important, than working ‘in the supply chain’. A revised approach to strategic planning, which encompasses and adjusts for the changes caused by globalisation, is urgently needed. A new 6-step strategic analyses process is described.

Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Scenario analysis of alternative vegetation management options on the greenhouse gas budget of two grazing businesses in north-eastern Australia

The emerging carbon economy will have a major impact on grazing businesses because of significant livestock methane and land-use change emissions. Livestock methane emissions alone account for similar to 11% of Australia's reported greenhouse gas emissions. Grazing businesses need to develop an understanding of their greenhouse gas impact and be able to assess the impact of alternative management options. This paper attempts to generate a greenhouse gas budget for two scenarios using a spread sheet model. The first scenario was based on one land-type '20-year-old brigalow regrowth' in the brigalow bioregion of southern-central Queensland. The 50 year analysis demonstrated the substantially different greenhouse gas outcomes and livestock carrying capacity for three alternative regrowth management options: retain regrowth (sequester 71.5 t carbon dioxide equivalents per hectare, CO2-e/ha), clear all regrowth (emit 42.8 t CO2-e/ha) and clear regrowth strips (emit 5.8 t CO2-e/ha). The second scenario was based on a 'remnant eucalypt savanna-woodland' land type in the Einasleigh Uplands bioregion of north Queensland. The four alternative vegetation management options were: retain current woodland structure (emit 7.4 t CO2-e/ha), allow woodland to thicken increasing tree basal area (sequester 20.7 t CO2-e/ha), thin trees less than 10 cm diameter (emit 8.9 t CO2-e/ha), and thin trees <20 cm diameter (emit 12.4 t CO2-e/ha). Significant assumptions were required to complete the budgets due to gaps in current knowledge on the response of woody vegetation, soil carbon and non-CO2 soil emissions to management options and land-type at the property scale. The analyses indicate that there is scope for grazing businesses to choose alternative management options to influence their greenhouse gas budget. However, a key assumption is that accumulation of carbon or avoidance of emissions somewhere on a grazing business (e.g. in woody vegetation or soil) will be recognised as an offset for emissions elsewhere in the business (e.g. livestock methane). This issue will be a challenge for livestock industries and policy makers to work through in the coming years.

The impact of dry matter, ripeness and internal defects on consumer perceptions of avocado quality and intentions to purchase.

Insights into the relative importance of various aspects of product quality can be provided through quantitative analysis of consumer preference and choice of fruit. In this study, methods previously used to establish taste preferences for kiwifruit (Harker et al., 2008) and conjoint approaches were used to determine the influence of three key aspects of avocado quality on consumer liking and willingness to purchase fruit: dry matter percentage (DM), level of ripeness (firmness) and internal defects (bruising). One hundred and seven consumers tasted avocados with a range of DM levels from ~20% (minimally mature) to nearly 40% (very mature), and at a range of fruit firmness (ripeness) stages (firm-ripe to soft-ripe). Responses to bruising, a common quality defect in fruit obtained from the retail shelf, were examined using a conjoint approach in which consumers were presented with photographs showing fruit affected by damage of varying severity. In terms of DM, consumers showed a progressive increase in liking and intent to buy avocados as the DM increased. In terms of ripeness, liking and purchase intent was higher in avocados that had softened to a firmness of 6.5 N or below (hand-rating 5). For internal defects, conjoint analysis revealed that price, level of bruising and incidence of bruising all significantly lowered consumers' future purchase decision, but the latter two factors had a greater impact than price. These results indicate the usefulness of the methodology, and also provide realistic targets for Hass avocado quality on the retail shelf.

Collation, analysis and research of thermal benefits of green life in the urban landscapes

This project reviewed international research conducted on the possible role of plants in alleviating high temperatures in our living spaces. The literature review served to identify the work that has already been carried out in the area and to highlight the gaps to be filled by experimental research. A pilot study then investigated the thermal properties of six of the most common landscaping materials. This project clearly shows that plants can play a significant role in modifying the thermal conditions of urban environments. Tall trees can shade nearby buildings and allow for reductions in cooling costs. In addition to basic shading, the dispersal of heat via the plant’s natural transpiration stream has long been recognised as an important component of the urban energy balance. It has been shown that urban temperatures can be up to 7°C higher than nearby rural areas, illustrating the impact of plants on their environment. These benefits argue against the idea of removing plants from landscapes in order to save on water in times of drought. Similarly, the idea of switching to artificial turf is questionable, since artificial turf still requires watering and can reach temperatures that far exceed the safe range for players. While vegetation offers evaporative cooling, non-vegetative, impervious surfaces such as concrete do not, and can therefore cause greater surface and soil temperatures. In addition, the higher temperatures associated with these impervious surfaces can negatively affect the growth of plants in surrounding areas. Permeable surfaces, such as mulches, have better insulating properties and can prevent excessive heating of the soil. However, they can also lead to an increase in reflected longwave radiation, causing the leaves of plants to close their water-conducting pores and reducing the beneficial cooling effects of transpiration. The results show that the energy balance of our surroundings is complicated and that all components of a landscape will have an impact on thermal conditions.

Impact of low temperature storage on active and storage forms of folate in choy sum (Brassica rapa subsp parachinensis)

Choy sum (Brassica rapa subsp. parachinensis) is a dark green leafy vegetable that contains high folate (vitamin B9) levels comparable to spinach. Folate is essential for the maintenance of human health and is obtained solely through dietary means. Analysis of the edible portion of choy sum by both microbiological assay and LC-MS/MS indicated that total folate activity remained significantly unchanged over 3 weeks storage at 4 degrees C. Inedible fractions consisted primarily of outer leaves, which showed signs of rotting after 14d, and a combination of rotting and yellowing after 21 d, contributing to 20% and 40% of product removal, respectively. Following deconjugation of the folate present in choy sum to monoglutamate and diglutamate derivatives, the principal forms (vitamers) of folate detected in choy sum were 5-methyltetrahydrofolate and 5-formyl tetrahydrofolate, followed by tetrahydrofolate (THF), 5,10-methenyl-THF, and 10-formyl folic acid. During storage, a significant decline in 5-formyl-THF was observed, with a slight but not significant increase in the combined 5-methyl-THF derivatives. The decline in 5-formyl-THF in relation to the other folate vitamers present may indicate that 5-formyl-THF is being utilised as a folate storage reserve, being interconverted to more metabolically active forms of folate, such as 5-methyl-THF. Although folate vitamer profile changed over the storage period, total folate activity did not significantly change. From a human nutritional perspective this is important, as while particular folate vitamers (e.g. 5-methyl-THF) are necessary for maintaining vital aspects of plant metabolism, it is less important to the human diet, as humans can absorb and interconvert multiple forms of folate. The current trial indicates that it is possible to store choy sum for up to 3 weeks at 4 degrees C without significantly affecting total folate concentration of the edible portion. Crown Copyright (C) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variation in water extraction with maize plant density and its impact on model application

The use of maize simulation models to determine the optimum plant population for rainfed environments allows the evaluation of plant populations over multiple years and locations at a lower cost than traditional field experimentation. However the APSIM maize model that has been used to conduct some of these 'virtual' experiments assumes that the maximum rate of soil water extraction by the crop root system is constant across plant populations. This untested assumption may cause grain yield to be overestimated in lower plant populations. A field experiment was conducted to determine whether maximum rates of water extraction vary with plant population, and the maximum rate of soil water extraction was estimated for three plant populations (2.4, 3.5 and 5.5 plants m(-2)) under water limited conditions. Maximum soil water extraction rates in the field experiment decreased linearly with plant population, and no difference was detected between plant populations for the crop lower limit of soil water extraction. Re-analysis of previous maize simulation experiments demonstrated that the use of inappropriately high extraction-rate parameters at low plant populations inflated predictions of grain yield, and could cause erroneous recommendations to be made for plant population. The results demonstrate the importance of validating crop simulation models across the range of intended treatments. (C) 2013 Elsevier E.V. All rights reserved.

Veneer Grade Analysis of Early to Mid-rotation Plantation Eucalyptus Species in Australia

Processing Australian hardwood plantations into rotary veneer can produce more acceptable marketable product recoveries compared to traditional processing techniques (e.g. sawmilling). Veneers resulting from processing trials from six commercially important Australian hardwood species were dominated by D-grade veneer. Defects such as encased knots, gum pockets, gum veins, surface roughness, splits, bark pockets, and decay impacted the final assigned grade. Four grading scenarios were adopted. The first included a change to the grade limitations for gum pockets and gum veins, while the second investigated the potential impact of effective pruning on grade recovery. Although both scenarios individually had a positive impact on achieving higher face grade veneer qualities, the third and fourth scenarios, which combined both, had a substantial impact, with relative veneer values increasing up to 18.2% using conservative calculations (scenario three) or up to 22.6% (scenario four) where some of the upgraded veneers were further upgraded to A-grade, which attracts superior value. The total change in veneer value was found to depend on the average billet diameter unless defects other than those relating to the scenarios (gum or knots) restricted the benefit of pruning and gum upgrading. This was the case for species prone to high levels of growth stress and related defects.

Learning from the past to predict the future: an historical analysis of grass invasions in northern Australia

An important focus of biosecurity is anticipating future risks, but time lags between introduction, naturalisation, and (ultimately) impact mean that future risks can be strongly influenced by history. We conduct a comprehensive historical analysis of tropical grasses (n = 155) that have naturalised in Australia since European settlement (1788) to determine what factors shaped historical patterns of naturalisation and future risks, including for the 21 species that cause serious negative impacts. Most naturalised species were from the Old World (78 %), were introduced for use in pasture (64.5 %), were first recorded prior to 1940 (84.5 %) and naturalised before 1980 (90.3 %). Patterns for high-impact species were similar, with all being first recorded in Australia by 1940, and only seven naturalised since then-five intentionally introduced as pasture species. Counter to expectations, we found no evidence for increased naturalisation with increasing trade, including for species introduced unintentionally for which the link was expected to be strongest. New pathways have not emerged since the 1930s despite substantial shifts in trading patterns. Furthermore, introduction and naturalisation rates are now at or approaching historically low levels. Three reasons were identified: (1) the often long lag phase between introduction and reported naturalisation means naturalisation rates reflect historical trends in introduction rates; (2) important introduction pathways are not directly related to trade volume and globalisation; and (3) that species pools may become depleted. The last of these appears to be the case for the most important pathway for tropical grasses, i.e. the intentional introduction of useful pasture species. Assuming that new pathways don't arise that might result in increased naturalisation rates, and that current at-border biosecurity practices remain in place, we conclude that most future high-impact tropical grass species are already present in Australia. Our results highlight the need to continually test underlying assumptions regarding future naturalisation rates of high-impact invasive species, as conclusions have important implications for how best to manage future biosecurity risks.