Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Spatial and temporal variation and effects of changes in management in discard rates from the commercial reef line fishery of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Discarding in commercially exploited fisheries has received considerable attention in the last decade, though only more recently in Australia. The Reef Line fishery (RLF) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia is a large-scale multi-sector, multi-species, highly regulated hook and line fishery with the potential for high levels of discarding. We used a range of data sources to estimate discard rates and discard quantities for the two main target groups of the RLF, the coral trout, Plectropomus spp, and the red throat emperor, Lethrinus miniatus, and investigated possible effects on discarding of recent changes in management of the fishery. Fleet-wide estimates of total annual quantities discarded from 1989 to 2003 were 292-622 t and 33-95 t for coral trout and red throat emperor, respectively. Hypothetical scenarios of high-grading after the introduction of a total allowable commercial catch for coral trout resulted in increases in discard quantities up to 3895 t, while no high-grading still meant 421 t were discarded. Increasing the minimum size limit of red throat emperor from 35 to 38 cm also increased discards to an estimated 103 t. We provide spatially and temporally explicit estimates of discarding for the two most important species in the GBR RLF of Australia to demonstrate the importance of accounting for regional variation in quantification of discarding. Effects of management changes on discarding are also highlighted. This study provides a template for exploring discarding levels for other species in the RLF and elsewhere.

Genetic variation and responses in reproductive performance of sows in lines selected for growth rate under restricted feeding

The objective of this study was to examine genetic changes in reproduction traits in sows (total number born (TNB), number born alive (NBA), average piglet birth weight (ABW) and number of piglets weaned (NW), body weight prior to mating (MW), gestation length (GL) and daily food intake during lactation (DFI)) in lines of Large White pigs divergently selected over 4 years for high and low post-weaning growth rate on a restricted ration. Heritabilities and repeatabilities of the reproduction traits were also determined. The analyses were carried out on 913 litter records using average information-restricted maximum likelihood method applied to single trait animal models. Estimates of heritability for most traits were small, except for ABW (0·33) and MW (0·35). Estimates of repeatability were slightly higher than those of heritability for TNB, NBA and NW, but they were almost identical for ABW, MW, GL and DFI. After 4 years of selection, the high growth line sows had significantly heavier body weight prior to mating and produced significantly more piglets born alive with heavier average birth weight than the low line sows. There were, however, no statistical differences between the selected lines in TNB or NW. The lower food intake of high relative to low line sows during lactation was not significant, indicating that daily food intake differences found between grower pigs in the high and low lines (2·71 v. 2·76 kg/day, s.e.d. 0·024) on ad libitum feeding were not fully expressed in lactating sows. It is concluded that selection for growth rate on the restricted ration resulted in beneficial effects on important measures of reproductive performance of the sows.

Diel variation in mangrove fish abundances and trophic guilds of northeastern Australian estuaries with a proposed trophodynamic model

Diel activity patterns of tropical fish assemblages in turbid, mangrove-dominated estuaries remain largely undocumented, leading to uncertainty about ecological processes in these systems. To capture active fishes by day and night, gill nets were set perpendicular to mangrove shorelines, in six northeastern Australian estuaries during 13 bimonthly trips. Fish were sampled with eight large mesh (102-151 mm) nets, set for 6 hrs (1500-2100), and checked hourly (1146 day, 635 dusk, 872 night checks). Four smaller mesh (19-51 mm) nets were also set for 1 hr before and after sunset (77 day, 78 night checks). Of 157 total species, 22 were netted exclusively before sunset and 47 exclusively after sunset. All of the top 26 species were present both day and night, but of these, 46% were primarily nocturnal (diel index > 0.65). An average of 77.2 fish hr−1 were netted by day vs 171.4 by night. Within the 400 km coastal region, assemblages differed between two northern wave-dominated (WD) estuaries and four southern tide-dominated ('I'D) estuaries. In all six estuaries Lates calcarifer (Bloch, 1790) dominated night assemblages. In 'I'D estuaries, night assemblages were also dominated by Thryssa hamiltoni Gray, 1835 and Eleutheronema tetradactylum (Shaw, 1804); while in WD estuaries Herklotsichthys castelnaui (Ogilby, 1897), Leiognathus equulus (Forsskål, 1775), and Megalops cyprinoids (Broussonet, 1782) were dominant at night. Nocturnal species included planktivores and carnivores, while daytime assemblages were dominated by detritivores (Mugillidae). Higher night catch rates are attributed to increased activity by mobile fishes moving from mangrove to adjacent habitats to forage, especially immediately post-sunset. Although day-night diets and forage resources have yet to be compared in mangrove systems, previously unrecognized trophic relationships involving variation in diel activity among important fishery species (Centropomidae, polynemidae, Carangidae) and their prey may be key ecological processes in these tropical mangrove estuaries. A proposed hypothesis explaining diel variation in mangrove fish assemblages of tropical estuaries is presented through a conceptual model.

Geographic and Phenotypic Variation in Heartwood and Essential-Oil Characters in Natural Populations of Santalum austrocaledonicum in Vanuatu.

Phenotypic variation in heartwood and essential-oil characters of Santalum austrocaledonicum was assessed across eleven populations on seven islands of Vanuatu Trees differed significantly in their percentage heartwood cross-sectional area and this varied independently of stem diameter The concentrations of the four major essential-oil constituents (alpha-santalol, beta-santalol. (Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol, and cis-nuciferol) of alcohol-extracted heartwood exhibited at least tenfold and continuous tree-to-tree variation Commercially important components alpha- and beta-santalol found in individual trees ranged from 0 8-47% and 0-24 1%, respectively, across all populations, and significant (P < 0 05) differences for each were found between Individual populations. The Erromango population was unique in that the mean concentrations of its monocyclic ((Z)-beta-curcumen-12-ol and cis-nuciferol) sesquiterpenes exceeded those of Its bi- and tricyclic (alpha- and beta-santalol) sesquiterpenes Heartwood colour varied between trees and spanned 65 colour categories, but no identifiable relationships were found between heartwood colour and alpha- and beta-santalol, although a weak relationship was evident between colour saturation and total oil concentration These results indicate that the heartwood colour is not a reliable predictive trait for oil quality The results of this study highlight the knowledge gaps in fundamental understanding of heartwood biology in Santalum genus The intraspecific variation in heartwood cross-sectional area. oil concentration. and oil quality traits is of considerable importance to the domestication of sandalwood and present opportunities for the development of highly superior S austrocaledonicum cultivars that conform to the industry's International Standards used for S album.

Variation in the hindgut microbial communities of the Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris over winter in Crystal River, Florida

The Florida manatee, Trichechus manatus latirostris, is a hindgut-fermenting herbivore. In winter, manatees migrate to warm water overwintering sites where they undergo dietary shifts and may suffer from cold-induced stress. Given these seasonally induced changes in diet, the present study aimed to examine variation in the hindgut bacterial communities of wild manatees overwintering at Crystal River, west Florida. Faeces were sampled from 36 manatees of known sex and body size in early winter when manatees were newly arrived and then in mid-winter and late winter when diet had probably changed and environmental stress may have increased. Concentrations of faecal cortisol metabolite, an indicator of a stress response, were measured by enzyme immunoassay. Using 454-pyrosequencing, 2027 bacterial operational taxonomic units were identified in manatee faeces following amplicon pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene V3/V4 region. Classified sequences were assigned to eight previously described bacterial phyla; only 0.36% of sequences could not be classified to phylum level. Five core phyla were identified in all samples. The majority (96.8%) of sequences were classified as Firmicutes (77.3 ± 11.1% of total sequences) or Bacteroidetes (19.5 ± 10.6%). Alpha-diversity measures trended towards higher diversity of hindgut microbiota in manatees in mid-winter compared to early and late winter. Beta-diversity measures, analysed through permanova, also indicated significant differences in bacterial communities based on the season.

Genetic variation in growth and wood-quality traits of Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata across three sites in south-east Queensland, Australia

Ten growth or wood-quality traits were assessed in three nearby Corymbia citriodora subsp. variegata (CCV) open-pollinated family-within-provenance trials (18 provenances represented by a total of 374 families) to provide information for the development of a breeding program targeting both pulp and solid-wood products. Growth traits (diameter at breast high over bark [DBH], height and conical volume) were assessed at 3 and 7 years of age. Wood-quality traits (density [DEN], Kraft pulp yield [KPY], modulus of elasticity [MoE] and microfibril angle [MfA]) were predicted using near-infrared spectroscopy on wood samples collected from these trials when aged between 10 and 12 years. The high average KPY, DEN and MoE, and low average MfA observed indicates CCV is very suitable for both pulp and timber products. All traits were under moderate to strong genetic control. In across- trials analyses, high (>0.4) heritability estimates were observed for height, DEN, MoE and MfA, while moderate heritability estimates (0.24 to 0.34) were observed for DBH, volume and KPY. Most traits showed very low levels of genotype × site interaction. Estimated age–age genetic correlations for growth traits were strong at both the family (0.97) and provenance (0.99) levels. Relationships among traits (additive genetic correlation estimates) were favourable, with strong and positive estimates between growth traits (0.84 to 0.98), moderate and positive values between growth and wood-quality traits (0.32 to 0.68), moderate and positive between KPY and MoE (0.64), and high and positive between DEN and MoE (0.82). However, negative (but favourable) correlations were detected between MfA and all other evaluated traits (−0.31 to −0.96). The genetic correlation between the same trait expressed on two different sites, at family level, ranged from 0.24 to 0.42 for growth traits, and from 0.29 to 0.53 for wood traits. Therefore simultaneous genetic improvement of growth and wood property traits in CCV for the target environment in south-east Queensland should be possible, given the moderate to high estimates of heritability and favourable correlations amongst all traits studied, unless genotype × site interactions are greater than was evident. © 2016 NISC (Pty) Ltd

Variation in liveweight gain of feedlot steers in southern Queensland

The rise in demand by domestic and export markets for a high quality uniform beef carcase has led to more steers being finished in feedlots. However, the profitability of feedlotting is small and economic survival hinges on efficiency (Ryan 1990). Lack of published data prevents conclusions being drawn about the level of efficiency of Australian feedlotting operations but the few studies reported show considerable variation in liveweight performance and carcase characteristics such as fat depth and marbling (Baud et al.) 21st Biennial Conference. 8-12 July, University of Queensland, Brisbane.

Quantitative assessment of total and Gram-positive aerobic bacteria in fresh and ambient-temperature-stored sub-tropical marine fish

The current study was undertaken to enumerate Gram-positive bacteria in fresh sub-tropical marine fish and determine the effect of ambient storage (25°C) on the Gram-positive bacterial count. Total and Gram-positive bacteria were enumerated in the muscles, gills and gut of fresh and stored Pseudocaranx dentex, Pagrus auratus and Mugil cephalus on tryptone soya agar (TSA) and TSA with 0.25% phenylethyl alcohol (PEA), respectively. Initial studies indicated that PEA significantly reduced total aerobic bacterial count (TABC) whereas control Gram-positive bacteria were not affected by 0.25% PEA. TABC significantly increased in all fish body parts, whereas Gram-positive aerobic bacterial count (GABC) significantly increased only in the muscles and gills during ambient storage for 15 h. The TABC of the fish species increased from 4.00, 6.13 and 4.58 log cfu g-1, respectively in the muscles, gills, and gut to 6.31, 7.31 and 7.23 log cfu g-1 by the end of storage. GABC increased from 2.00, 3.52 and 2.20 log cfu g-1 to 4.70, 5.85 and 3.36 log cfu g-1. Within each species, TABC were significantly higher in the gills compared to that of muscles and gut; however, no significant differences were found in GABC between muscles and gills. This study demonstrated the potential importance of Gram-positive bacteria in sub-tropical marine fish and their spoilage.

Improving sheep feedlot management

This paper summarise six studies undertaken by the Sheep CRC to elucidate certain aspects of confinement feeding of sheep. A review of confinement feeding highlighted the variability of growth rate and feed conversion of sheep and revealed that little is known about the use of sorghum for feeding sheep. The review indicated that the main factors responsible for variation of growth rate and feed conversion were adaptation to grain and feeding system, including the preparation and presentation of feed. The importance of social and physiological adaptation to grain feeding was confirmed. Factors identified as responsible for safe induction and uniform growth rates included prior exposure to grain as lambs, gradual introduction of grain and, when concentrate was provided ad libitum from the first day, the use of either virginiamycin, a pelleted feed, a total mixed ration or a step-wise increase of high-starch grain components. Separate feeding of hay and grain resulted in performance comparable with that of a pelleted diet and that of a total mixed ration. Sorghum-based concentrate diets resulted in growth rates and carcase weights similar to that for winter cereal grains or pellets. Steam flaking or expanding of sorghum had no significant effect on growth rates or carcase weights. These results can be used to determine the profitability of various feedlotting options.

Genetic Impacts of the Hull on Barley Grain Quality

Barley hull plays an important role in malt and feed quality and processing. In this study we measured the variation in hull con-tent along with other grain quality traits namely, kernel discolouration and degree of pre-harvest sprouting, in a single map-ping population. There were significant (p < 0.05) genetic as well as environment effects. In addition, heritability was calculated for hull content to be 29% and 47% for two years’ data. From the analysis, major QTL markers were identified in con-trolling the expression of hull content on chromosomes 2 (2H), and 6 (6H) with significant (P < 0.05) LOD scores of 5.4 and 3.46 respectively. Minor QTLs were identified on 1 (7H), 4 (4H), 5 (1H) and 7 (5H). The region at marker Bmac310 on 4(4H) could be associated with dormancy gene SD4. A number of the QTLs also coincided with regions for either kernel discolouration or preharvest sprouting resistance (dormancy). The results indicate that variation exists for hull content, which is influenced by both growing environment as well as genetically, although the genetic variance explained less than half of the total variance. Further, hull content also impacts on other grain quality attributes including dormancy, sprouting resistance and kernel appearance.

Measurement of genetic and environmental variation in barley (Hordeum vulgare) grain hardness

In this study, we assessed a broad range of barley breeding lines and commercial varieties by three hardness methods (two particle size methods and one crush resistance method (SKCS—Single-Kernel Characterization System), grown at multiple sites to see if there was variation in barley hardness and if that variation was genetic or environmentally controlled. We also developed near-infrared reflectance (NIR) calibrations for these three hardness methods to ascertain if NIR technology was suitable for rapid screening of breeding lines or specific populations. In addition, we used this data to identify genetic regions that may be associated with hardness. There were significant (p<0.05) genetic effects for the three hardness methods. There were also environmental effects, possibly linked to the effect of protein on hardness, i.e. increasing protein resulted in harder grain. Heritability values were calculated at >85% for all methods. The NIR calibrations, with R2 values of >90%, had Standard Error of Prediction values of 0.90, 72 and 4.0, respectively, for the three hardness methods. These equations were used to predict hardness values of a mapping population which resulted in genetic markers being identified on all chromosomes but chromosomes 2H, 3H, 5H, 6H and 7H had markers with significant LOD scores. The two regions on 5H were on the distal end of both the long and short arms. The region that showed significant LOD score was on the long arm. However, the region on the short arm associated with the hardness (hordoindoline) genes did not have significant LOD scores. The results indicate that barley hardness is influenced by both genotype and environment and that the trait is heritable, which would allow breeders to develop very hard or soft varieties if required. In addition, NIR was shown to be a reliable tool for screening for hardness. While the data set used in this study has a relatively low variation in hardness, the tools developed could be applied to breeding populations that have large variation in barley grain hardness.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.

Borate protection of softwood from Coptotermes acinaciformis (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) damage: Variation in protection thresholds explained

Laboratory and field data reported in the literature are confusing with regard to “adequate” protection thresholds for borate timber preservatives. The confusion is compounded by differences in termite species, timber species and test methodology. Laboratory data indicate a borate retention of 0.5% mass/mass (m/m) boric acid equivalent (BAE) would cause >90% termite mortality and restrict mass loss in test specimens to ≤5%. Field data generally suggest that borate retentions appreciably >0.5% m/m BAE are required. We report two field experiments with varying amounts of untreated feeder material in which Coptotermes acinaciformis (Froggatt) (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) responses to borate-treated radiata (Monterey) pine, Pinus radiata D. Don, were measured. The apparently conflicting results between laboratory and field data are explained by the presence or absence of untreated feeder material in the test environment. In the absence of untreated feeder material, wood containing 0.5% BAE provided adequate protection from Coptotermes sp., whereas in the presence of untreated feeder material, increased retentions were required. Furthermore, the retentions required increased with increased amounts of susceptible material present. Some termites, Nasutitermes sp. and Mastotermes darwiniensis Froggatt, for example, are borate-tolerant and borate timber preservatives are not a viable management option with these species. The lack of uniform standards for termite test methodology and assessment criteria for efficacy across the world is recognized as a difficulty with research into the performance of timber preservatives with termites. The many variables in laboratory and field assays make “prescriptive” standards difficult to recommend. The use of “performance” standards to define efficacy criteria (“adequate” protection) is discussed.

Characterization of tree-to-tree variation in morphological, nutritional and medicinal properties of Canarium indicum nuts

As part of a feasibility study of the commercialization potential of C. indicum nuts as Agroforestry Tree Products in Papua New Guinea, preliminary characterization studies have examined the tree-to-tree variation in morphological traits (nut and kernel mass and kernel:nut ratio), as well as nutritional (carbohydrate, fat, protein, sodium, vitamin E) and medicinal traits (anti-oxidant activity, anti-inflammatory activity and phenolic content) of kernels from 18 to 72 trees in a small number of different villages of Papua New Guinea (East New Britain Province). There was continuous variation in these traits indicating opportunities for multiple trait cultivar development targeted at food and pharmaceutical markets. Certain traits, for example anti-inflammatory activity, in which tree-to-tree variation was highly significant, present greater opportunities than others, such as saturated:unsaturated fatty acid ratio. This intraspecific variation was greater within populations than between populations. The data presented has allowed the development of a strategy to domesticate C. indicum for cultivation in homegardens and cocoa-coconut agroforests, using a participatory approach aimed at the production of agroforestry tree products (AFTPs) to empower small-holders and enhance their livelihoods and income.