Landscape structure influences tree density patterns in fragmented woodlands in semi-arid eastern Australia.

Landscape and local-scale influences are important drivers of plant community structure. However, their relative contribution and the degree to which they interact remain unclear. We quantified the extent to which landscape structure, within-patch habitat and their confounding effects determine post-clearing tree densities and composition in agricultural landscapes in eastern subtropical Australia. Landscape structure (incorporating habitat fragmentation and loss) and within-patch (site) features were quantified for 60 remnant patches of Eucalyptus populnea (Myrtaceae) woodland. Tree density and species for three ecological maturity classes (regeneration, early maturity, late maturity) and local site features were assessed in one 100 × 10 m plot per patch. All but one landscape characteristic was determined within a 1.3-km radius of plots; Euclidean nearest neighbour distance was measured inside a 5-km radius. Variation in tree density and composition for each maturity class was partitioned into independent landscape, independent site and joint effects of landscape and site features using redundancy analysis. Independent site effects explained more variation in regeneration density and composition than pure landscape effects; significant predictors were the proportion of early and late maturity trees at a site, rainfall and the associated interaction. Conversely, landscape structure explained greater variation in early and late maturity tree density and composition than site predictors. Area of remnant native vegetation within a landscape and patch characteristics (area, shape, edge contrast) were significant predictors of early maturity tree density. However, 31% of the explained variation in early mature tree differences represented confounding influences of landscape and local variables. We suggest that within-patch characteristics are important in influencing semi-arid woodland tree regeneration. However, independent and confounding effects of landscape structure resulting from previous vegetation clearing may have exerted a greater historical influence on older cohorts and should be accounted for when examining woodland dynamics across a broader range of environments.

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Development of a productivity asessment toll for native spotted gum forest on private land based on estimates of forest growth on Crown land.

Reliable estimates of forest productivity are essential for improved predictions of timber yields for the private native spotted gum resource in southern Qld and northern NSW. The aim of this research was to estimate the potential productivity of native spotted gum forests on private land by making use of available inventory data collated from Qld and northern NSW for spotted gum forest on Crown land (i.e. state forests). We measured a range of site-related factors to determine their relative importance in predicting productivity of spotted gum forest. While measures such as stand height and height-diameter relationships are known to be useful predictors of productivity, we aimed to determine productivity for a site where this information was not available. Through estimation of stand growth rates we developed a spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT) for use by landholders and extension officers. We aimed to develop a tool to allow private landholders to see the benefits of maintaining their timber resource. This paper summarises the information used to develop the SPAT with a particular focus on forest growth relationships.

Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.