The effect of row configuration on yield reliability in grain sorghum: II. Modelling the effects of row configuration

In recent years many sorghum producers in the more marginal (<600 mm annual rainfall) cropping areas of Qld and northern NSW have utilised skip row configurations in an attempt to improve yield reliability and reduce sorghum production risk. But will this work in the long run? What are the trade-offs between productivity and risk of crop failure? This paper describes a modelling and simulation approach to study the long-term effects of skip row configurations. Detailed measurements of light interception and water extraction from sorghum crops grown in solid, single and double skip row configurations were collected from three on-farm participatory research trials established in southern Qld and northern NSW. These measurements resulted in changes to the model that accounted for the elliptical water uptake pattern below the crop row and reduced total light interception associated with the leaf area reduction of the skip configuration. Following validation of the model, long-term simulation runs using historical weather data were used to determine the value of skip row sorghum production as a means of maintaining yield reliability in the dryland cropping regions of southern Qld and northern NSW.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Evaluation of aerial photography for predicting trends in structural attributes of Australian woodland including comparison with ground-based monitoring data

The accurate assessment of trends in the woody structure of savannas has important implications for greenhouse accounting and land-use industries such as pastoralism. Two recent assessments of live woody biomass change from north-east Australian eucalypt woodland between the 1980s and 1990s present divergent results. The first estimate is derived from a network of permanent monitoring plots and the second from woody cover assessments from aerial photography. The differences between the studies are reviewed and include sample density, spatial scale and design. Further analyses targeting potential biases in the indirect aerial photography technique are conducted including a comparison of basal area estimates derived from 28 permanent monitoring sites with basal area estimates derived by the aerial photography technique. It is concluded that the effect of photo-scale; or the failure to include appropriate back-transformation of biomass estimates in the aerial photography study are not likely to have contributed significantly to the discrepancy. However, temporal changes in the structure of woodlands, for example, woodlands maturing from many smaller trees to fewer larger trees or seasonal changes, which affect the relationship between cover and basal area could impact on the detection of trends using the aerial photography technique. It is also possible that issues concerning photo-quality may bias assessments through time, and that the limited sample of the permanent monitoring network may inadequately represent change at regional scales

Metabolite mobilization in the stem galls of Parthenium hysterophorus induced by Epiblema strenuana inferred from the signatures of isotopic carbon and nitrogen and concentrations of total non-structural carbohydrates

Parthenium hysterophorus L. (Asteraceae) is a weed of national significance in Australia. Among the several arthropod agents introduced into Australia to control populations of P. hysterophorus biologically, Epiblema strenuana Walker (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is the most widespread and abundant agent. By intercepting the normal transport mechanisms of P. hysterophorus, the larvae of E. strenuana drain nutrients, other metabolic products, and energy, and place the host plant under intense metabolic stress. In this study, determinations of total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) levels and carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of fixed products in different parts of the plant tissue, including the gall, have been made to establish the function of gall as a sink for the nutrients. Values of δ13C and δ15N in galls were significantly different than those in proximal and distal stems, whereas the TNC levels were insignificant, when measured in the total population of P. hysterophorus, regardless of plant age. However, carbon, nitrogen, and TNC signatures presented significant results, when assayed in different developmental stages of P. hysterophorus. Carbon isotope ratios in galls were consistently more negative than those from the compared plant organs. Nitrogen isotope ratios in galls, on the contrary, were either similar to or less negative than the compared plant organs, especially within a single host-plant stage population (i.e., either rosette, preflowering, or flowering stage). TNC levels varied within compared plant populations. The stem distal to the gall functioned more efficiently as a nodal channel than the stem proximal to the gall, especially in the translocation of nitrogenous nutrients. Our findings indicate that the gall induced by E. strenuana functions as a sink for the assayed nutrients, although some variations have been observed in the patterns of nutrient mobilization. By creating a sink for the nutrients in the gall, E. strenuana is able to place the overall plant metabolism under stress, and this ability indicates E. strenuana has the necessary potential for use as a biological-control agent.

Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Towards the Development of a Functional-Structural model for Macadamia

Towards the Development of a Functional-Structural model for Macadamia.

A market assessment and evaluation of structural roundwood products from hardwood pulp plantations.

Roundwood structures have always been used for temporary and low cost shelters and other fleeting structures. Novel concepts for the use of plantation hardwoods in roundwood form in construction were developed and circulated along with an electronic questionnaire to stakeholders representing growers, designers and users of hardwood. Responses indicate that there is a high level of interest in developing products from the emerging small roundwood resource and a detailed program of research was supported and recommended by the majority of participants in the survey. These results indicate a high level of support for further investigation into the use of plantation hardwood for roundwood components. Respondents representing a wide range of stakeholders have indicated that to gain benefit from a detailed project they would require solutions for connection systems and protection from pests and weathering, indications of cost and assurance of ongoing supply for niche applications, data for strength, acoustic dampening and thermal insulation properties, acceptance by regulatory authorities and training for on-site construction.

Evaluation of wood characteristics of tropical post-mid rotation plantation Eucalyptus cloeziana and E. pellita: Part (c) Wood quality and structural properties.

This study provides information about wood quality, structural properties, processing characterists and product suitability of wood harvested from fast-grown hardwood plantations. Wood quality attributes tested included density, extractive content, unit shrinkage, heartwood proportion and sapwood width. Structural properties tested included small clear and full section strength and stiffness, hardness, joint group, visual grade assessment and natural vibration-based grade assessment. The variation between the inner, intermediate and outer heartwood zones and the variation between provenances was also tested. Overall, the wood qualtiy attributes measured for 19 year-old E. cloeziana and 15 year-old E. pellita plantation material fall between those expected from the wood of mature, native forest trees and those found in younger plantation material of the same species.

Relationship Between the Levels of Non-structural Carbohydrates, Digging Date, Nursery-growing Environment, and Chilling in Strawberry Transplants in a Subtropical Environment

Experiments were conducted to study the effect of time of digging and nursery-growing environment on the levels of non-structural carbohydrates in 'Festival' strawberry transplants (Fragaria xananassa) over 2 years in southeastern Queensland, Australia. We were interested in determining whether there was a strong relationship between the potential productivity of this material and reserves in the plants. First, bare-rooted plants were obtained from Stanthorpe in southern Queensland from early March to mid-April/late April. Second, bare-rooted plants were sourced from Stanthorpe (a warm-growing area) or from Toolangi in Victoria (a cool-growing area). In Year 1 of the experiments, the nursery material from the different treatments was grown at Nambour in southeastern Queensland and fruit yield determined. The total weight of nonstructural carbohydrates/plant increased as digging was delayed and was higher in the plants from Stanthorpe than the plants from Toolangi. Plants dug on 17 Mar. in Year 1 had higher weights of non-structural carbohydrates [292 mg/plant dry weight (DW)] than plants dug on 3 Mar. (224 mg/plant) and higher early yield to the end of June or to the end of July and higher total yield to mid-October adjusted by the length of the growing season for the different treatments. Plants dug on 1 Apr. (408 mg/plant) or on 13 Apr. (445 mg/plant) had higher reserves than the plants dug on 17 Mar. but lower yields. Only the differences in yields between the plants dug on 3 Mar. and 17 Mar. reflected the differences in carbohydrates. The stock from Stanthorpe had greater reserves (408 mg/plant) than the stock from Toolangi (306 mg/plant) but similar yields in Year 1 possibly because of poorer flowering in the nursery plants. It was concluded that carbohydrate reserves in transplants only partially reflect their productivity in this environment.

Structural Veneer Based Composite Products from Hardwood Thinning - Part II: Testing of Hollow Utility Poles

Australian utility pole network is aging and reaching its end of life, with 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II. The estimated investment required for the replacement or remedial maintenance of the aging 3.5 millions poles is as high as 1.75 billion dollars. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year, representing further investment of 13.5 million dollars per year. Yet, agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia have been signed, giving the industry about 25 years to make the transition from Crown native forests to plantations and private forests. As utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species, finding solutions to source new poles currently presents a challenge. This paper presents tests on Veneer Based Composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinning. Small diameter poles of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 veneers per halfpole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles cut from mature trees and of similar size. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. © RILEM 2014.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Structural Veneer Based Composite Products from Hardwood Thinning - Part I: Background and Manufacturing

In Australia, plantation forests have increased in area by around 50% in the last 10 years. While this expansion has seen a modest 8% increase for softwoods, hardwood plantations have dramatically increased by over 150%. Hardwood plantations grown for high quality sawn timber are slow to mature, with a crop rotation time potentially reaching 35 years. With this long lead-time, each year the risk from fire, pests and adverse weather events dramatically increases, while not translating into substantially higher financial returns to the grower. To justify continued expansion of Australia's current hardwood plantation estate, it is becoming necessary to develop higher value end-uses for both pulpwood and smaller 'sawlog' resources. The use of the low commercial value stems currently culled during thinning appears to be a necessary option to improve the industry profitability and win new markets. This paper provides background information on Australian forests and plantations and gives an overview of potential uses of Australian hardwood plantation thinning logs, as their mechanical properties. More specifically, this paper reports on the development of structural Veneer Based Composite (VBC) products from hardwood plantation thinning logs, taking advantage of a recent technology developed to optimise the processing of this resource. The process used to manufacture a range of hollow-form veneer laminated structural products is presented and the mechanical characteristics of these products are investigated in the companion paper. The market applications and future opportunities for the proposed products are also discussed, as potential benefits to the timber industry. © RILEM 2014.