Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Process studies of odour emissions from effluent ponds using machine-based odour measurement

Replicable experimental studies using a novel experimental facility and a machine-based odour quantification technique were conducted to demonstrate the relationship between odour emission rates and pond loading rates. The odour quantification technique consisted of an electronic nose, AromaScan A32S, and an artificial neural network. Odour concentrations determined by olfactometry were used along with the AromaScan responses to train the artificial neural network. The trained network was able to predict the odour emission rates for the test data with a correlation coefficient of 0.98. Time averaged odour emission rates predicted by the machine-based odour quantification technique, were strongly correlated with volatile solids loading rate, demonstrating the increased magnitude of emissions from a heavily loaded effluent pond. However, it was not possible to obtain the same relationship between volatile solids loading rates and odour emission rates from the individual data. It is concluded that taking a limited number of odour samples over a short period is unlikely to provide a representative rate of odour emissions from an effluent pond. A continuous odour monitoring instrument will be required for that more demanding task.

Value-adding Australian sardines: Factors affecting rates of deterioration in sardine (Sardinops sagax) quality during post-harvest handling

Deficiencies in sardine post-harvest handling methods were seen as major impediments to development of a value-adding sector supplying Australian bait and human consumption markets. Factors affecting sardine deterioration rates in the immediate post-harvest period were investigated and recommendations made for alternative handling procedures to optimise sardine quality. Net to factory sampling showed that post-mortem autolysis was probably caused by digestive enzyme activity contributing to the observed temporal increase in sardine Quality Index. Belly burst was not an issue. Sardine quality could be maintained by reducing tank loading, and rapid temperature reduction using dedicated, on-board value-adding tanks. Fish should be iced between the jetty and the processing factory, and transport bins chilled using an efficient cooling medium such as flow ice.

Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus

1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

Smart sorbers - value adding spent litter fertiliser. A pilot trial

Currently spent litter is not a balanced fertiliser. This project is a first step in improving the ability to reduce environmental contamination and to more fully realise the full fertilizer and soil amendment value of this material.

The Potential for a New Value Adding Industry for Noni Tropical Fruit Producers

Morinda citrifolia (noni) grows widely throughout the Pacific and is native to Australia. It is a source of traditional medicine amongst Coastal Aboriginal Communities in Cape York, the Pacific Islands and South East Asia, and in recent years has experienced significant economic growth worldwide through a variety of health and cosmetic claims. The largest markets for noni are North America, Europe, Japan, Mexico, Asia and Australia with the worldwide market for these products estimated at US$400 million.

Stochastic growth of the Eastern King Prawn (melicertus plebejus (hess, 1865)) harvested off Eastern Australia

Stochastic growth models were fitted to length-increment data of eastern king prawns, Melicertus plebejus (Hess, 1865), tagged across eastern Australia. The estimated growth parameters and growth transition matrix are for each sex representative of the species' geographical distribution. Our study explicitly displays the stochastic nature of prawn growth. Capturing length-increment growth heterogeneity for short-lived exploited species such as prawns that cannot be readily aged is essential for length-based modelling and improved management.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Large-chamber methane and nitrous oxide measurements are comparable to the backward Lagrangian stochastic method

Measurement of individual emission sources (e.g., animals or pen manure) within intensive livestock enterprises is necessary to test emission calculation protocols and to identify targets for decreased emissions. In this study, a vented, fabric-covered large chamber (4.5 × 4.5 m, 1.5 m high; encompassing greater spatial variability than a smaller chamber) in combination with on-line analysis (nitrous oxide [N2O] and methane [CH4] via Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy; 1 analysis min-1) was tested as a means to isolate and measure emissions from beef feedlot pen manure sources. An exponential model relating chamber concentrations to ambient gas concentrations, air exchange (e.g., due to poor sealing with the surface; model linear when ≈ 0 m3 s-1), and chamber dimensions allowed data to be fitted with high confidence. Alternating manure source emission measurements using the large-chamber and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLS) technique (5-mo period; bLS validated via tracer gas release, recovery 94-104%) produced comparable N2O and CH4 emission values (no significant difference at P < 0.05). Greater precision of individual measurements was achieved via the large chamber than for the bLS (mean ± standard error of variance components: bLS half-hour measurements, 99.5 ± 325 mg CH4 s-1 and 9.26 ± 20.6 mg N2O s-1; large-chamber measurements, 99.6 ± 64.2 mg CH4 s-1 and 8.18 ± 0.3 mg N2O s-1). The large-chamber design is suitable for measurement of emissions from manure on pen surfaces, isolating these emissions from surrounding emission sources, including enteric emissions. © © American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America.

Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Automating Crop Damage Assessments with Unmanned Aerial Systems and Machine Learning

Agricultural pests are responsible for millions of dollars in crop losses and management costs every year. In order to implement optimal site-specific treatments and reduce control costs, new methods to accurately monitor and assess pest damage need to be investigated. In this paper we explore the combination of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), remote sensing and machine learning techniques as a promising methodology to address this challenge. The deployment of UAVs as a sensor platform is a rapidly growing field of study for biosecurity and precision agriculture applications. In this experiment, a data collection campaign is performed over a sorghum crop severely damaged by white grubs (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae). The larvae of these scarab beetles feed on the roots of plants, which in turn impairs root exploration of the soil profile. In the field, crop health status could be classified according to three levels: bare soil where plants were decimated, transition zones of reduced plant density and healthy canopy areas. In this study, we describe the UAV platform deployed to collect high-resolution RGB imagery as well as the image processing pipeline implemented to create an orthoimage. An unsupervised machine learning approach is formulated in order to create a meaningful partition of the image into each of the crop levels. The aim of this approach is to simplify the image analysis step by minimizing user input requirements and avoiding the manual data labelling necessary in supervised learning approaches. The implemented algorithm is based on the K-means clustering algorithm. In order to control high-frequency components present in the feature space, a neighbourhood-oriented parameter is introduced by applying Gaussian convolution kernels prior to K-means clustering. The results show the algorithm delivers consistent decision boundaries that classify the field into three clusters, one for each crop health level as shown in Figure 1. The methodology presented in this paper represents a venue for further esearch towards automated crop damage assessments and biosecurity surveillance.