From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Development and testing of an evaluation procedure for commercial manure additive products.

Manure additive products can be used to reduce odour emissions (OE) from livestock farms. The standardised evaluation of these manure additive products under specific farm conditions is important. In this study, the efficacy of a manure additive (WonderTreat(TM), CKLS, Inc., Hong-Kong) was assessed under Australian conditions utilising a combination of laboratory and field-scale evaluation techniques. As a first step, the efficacy of the manure additive was assessed in a laboratory-scale trial using a series of uniformly managed digesters and standard odour, liquor ammonia and hydrogen sulphide concentration measurement procedures. This showed that the addition of WonderTreat(TM) at the 'low dose rate' (LDR) (102.6 g m-2) used during the trial significantly, but only marginally (30%; P = 0.02) reduced the OE rate (mean 13.9 OU m-2 s-1) of anaerobic pig liquor relative to an untreated control (UC) (19.9 OU m-2 s-1). However, the 'high dose rate' (HDR) (205.3 g m-2) also assessed during the trial preformed similarly (19.7 OU m-2 s-1) to the UC. No statistically significant difference in the concentrations of a range of measured water quality variables at the 5% level was observed between the treatments or controls digesters. As a second step, a field-scale assessment of the manure additive was undertaken at a commercial piggery. Two piggery manure lagoons (each with approximately 2500 m2 surface area) were included in the study; one was treated with WonderTreat(TM) while the other was used as control. The efficacy of the treatment was assessed using olfactometric evaluation of odour samples collected from the surface of the pond using a dynamic wind tunnel and ancillary equipment. No statistically significant reduction in OE rate could be demonstrated (P = 0.35), partially due to the limited number of samples taken during the assessment. However, there was a numerical reduction in the average OE rate of the treatment pond (29 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1) compared to the control lagoon (38 OU m-2 s-1 at 1 m s-1).

Getting value out of your sensory testing - the difference from control test

Non-parametric difference tests such as triangle and duo-trio tests traditionally are used to establish differences or similarities between products. However they only supply the researcher with partial answers and often further testing is required to establish the nature, size and direction of differences. This paper looks at the advantages of the difference from control (DFC) test (also known as degree of difference test) and discusses appropriate applications of the test. The scope and principle of the test, panel composition and analysis of results are presented with the aid of suitable examples. Two of the major uses of the DFC test are in quality control and shelf-life testing. The role DFC takes in these areas and the use of other tests to complement the testing is discussed. Controls or standards are important in both these areas and the use of standard products, mental and written standards and blind controls are highlighted. The DFC test has applications in products where the duo-trio and triangle tests cannot be used because of the normal heterogeneity of the product. While the DFC test is a simple difference test it can be structured to give the researcher more valuable data and scope to make informed decisions about their product.

A Comparison of Methods for Describing Irregular Animal Growth and Testing for Treatment Effects

In many designed experiments with animals liveweight is recorded several times during the trial. Such data are commonly referred to as repeated measures data. An aim of such experiments is generally to compare the growth patterns for the applied treatments. This paper discusses some of the methods of analysing repeated measures data and illustrates the use of cubic smoothing splines to describe irregular cattle growth data. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Antimicrobial susceptibility testing of Brachyspira intermedia and Brachyspira pilosicoli isolates from Australian chickens

Susceptibilities of predominantly Australian isolates of the pathogenic intestinal spirochaetes Brachyspira intermedia (n=25) and Brachyspira pilosicoli (n=17) from chickens were tested in agar dilution against four concentrations each of the antimicrobials tiamulin, lincomycin, tylosin, metronidazole, tetracycline and ampicillin. Based on available minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) breakpoint values for Brachyspira hyodysenteriae or other Gram-negative enteric veterinary pathogens, isolates of both species generally were susceptible to tiamulin, lincomycin, metronidazole and tetracycline. Although not classed as resistant, four isolates of B. intermedia had an elevated MIC range for tiamulin (1 to 4 mg/l), 11 isolates of B. intermedia and five of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for lincomycin (10 to 50 mg/l), one isolate of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for tetracycline (10 to 20 mg/l), and one isolate of B. intermedia and five of B. pilosicoli had an elevated MIC range for ampicillin (10 to 50 mg/l). A clear lack of susceptibility to tylosin (MIC >4 mg/l) was seen in 11 isolates each of B. intermedia and B. pilosicoli, and to ampicillin (MIC >32 mg/l) in two isolates of B. pilosicoli. These data suggest that some resistance to common antimicrobials exists among intestinal spirochetes obtained from laying hens and supports the need of MIC data for clinical isolates before any treatment is considered.

Measuring the traction profile on sportsfields: Equipment development and testing

Traction is recognised as an important component of the overall playability and safety of a sportsfield. It relates to the "grip", or footing, provided through an athlete's shoe when in contact with the surface, and is normally measured by the torque generated when a weighted studded disc apparatus is dropped onto the turf and twisted manually. This paper describes the development of an automated traction tester, which mechanises the dropping and twisting of the weighted studded disc. By standardising these operational stages, more repeatable and reliable results can be expected than from the original hand-operated design where positioning of the disc and speed of rotation are controlled manually and so can vary from one measurement to the next. As well as measuring the maximum torque reached during rotation of the studded disc, the automated traction tester generates a profile of torque showing changes over time and calculates the angle through which the studded disc moved before reaching maximum torque. These aspects are now covered by a utility patent (PAT/AU/2004270767). Use of the automated traction tester is illustrated by comparative data for a range of warm-season turfgrasses, by comparisons of traction under different surface conditions generated by wear on Cynodon dactylon cultivars, and by the effects of environment, management and playing patterns on traction across a multi-use sports stadium.

Optical peanut yield monitor: Development and testing

An optical peanut yield monitor was developed, fabricated, and field-tested. The overall system includes an optical mass-flow sensor, a GPS receiver, and a data acquisition system. The concept for the mass-flow sensor is based on that of the cotton yield-monitor sensor developed previously by Thomasson and Sui (2000). A modified version of the sensor was designed to be specific to peanut mass-flow measurement. Field testing of the peanut yield monitor was conducted in Australia during the May 2003 harvest. After subsequent minor modifications, the system was more extensively tested in Mississippi in October of 2003 and November of 2004. Test results showed that the output of the peanut mass-flow sensor was very strongly correlated with the harvested load weight, and the system's performance was stable and reliable during the tests.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Testing insecticides against Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) using a tomato plant bioassay

A bioassay technique was developed to test the efficacy of insecticides against potato moth (Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller)) on tomatoes. The technique tested efficacy against both larvae in mines and neonate larvae that had not yet penetrated the leaf, and explained the failure of some insecticides to control P. operculella infestations in commercial tomato crops. Neonate larvae placed on leaves of potted plants several days before treatment provided larvae for testing of insecticides against larvae in mines; other neonates were placed on leaves after treatment to test efficacy against larvae yet to penetrate the leaf. The plants were sprayed with the candidate insecticides, held for 5-7 days, and larval mortality assessed. Chlorfenapyr (100, 200 g a.i. ha-1) and abamectin (8.1 g a.i. ha-1) were effective against neonate larvae and larvae in mines. Sulprofos (720 g a.i. ha -1), methomyl (450 g a.i. ha-1) and spinosad (96 g a.i. ha-1) were effective against neonate larvae but not against larvae in mines. Methamidophos (1102 g a.i. ha-1), endosulfan (700 g a.i. ha-1) and Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki (1000 g ha-1) had some effect against exposed larvae but little against larvae in mines. Thiodicarb (525 g a.i. ha-1), azinphos-ethyl (440 g a.i. ha -1), imidacloprid (59.5 g a.i. ha-1), hexaflumuron (50 g a.i. ha-1), methoxyfenozide (300 g a.i. ha-1) and tebufenozide (200 g a.i. ha-1) were ineffective. A field trial using chlorfenapyr (25, 50, 100, 150 and 200 g a.i. ha-1) and methamidophos (1102 g a.i. ha-1) validated the bioassay technique, with chlorfenapyr effective in reducing the numbers of larvae in mines in leaves.

Testing the simulation capability of APSIM-ORYZA under different levels of nitrogen fertiliser and transplanting time regimes in Korea

APSIM-ORYZA is a new functionality developed in the APSIM framework to simulate rice production while addressing management issues such as fertilisation and transplanting, which are particularly important in Korean agriculture. To validate the model for Korean rice varieties and field conditions, the measured yields and flowering times from three field experiments conducted by the Gyeonggi Agricultural Research and Extension Services (GARES) in Korea were compared against the simulated outputs for different management practices and rice varieties. Simulated yields of early-, mid- and mid-to-late-maturing varieties of rice grown in a continuous rice cropping system from 1997 to 2004 showed close agreement with the measured data. Similar results were also found for yields simulated under seven levels of nitrogen application. When different transplanting times were modelled, simulated flowering times ranged from within 3 days of the measured values for the early-maturing varieties, to up to 9 days after the measured dates for the mid- and especially mid-to-late-maturing varieties. This was associated with highly variable simulated yields which correlated poorly with the measured data. This suggests the need to accurately calibrate the photoperiod sensitivity parameters of the model for the photoperiod-sensitive rice varieties in Korea.

Australian Bat Lyssavirus

In Chapter 1, the literature relating to rabies virus and the rabies like lyssaviruses is reviewed. In Chapter 2, data are presented from 1170 diagnostic submissions for ABLV testing by fluorescent antibody test (Centocor FAT). All 27 non-bat submissions were ABLV-negative. Of 1143 bat accessions 74 (16%) were ABLV-positive, including 69 of 974 (7.1%) flying foxes (Pteropus spp.), 5 of 7 (71.4%) Saccolaimus flaviventris (Yellow-bellied sheathtail bats), none of 151 other microchiropteran bats, and none of 11 unidentified bats. Statistical analysis of data from 868 wild Black, Grey-headed, Little Red and Spectacled flying foxes (Pteropus alecto, P. poliocephalus, P. scapulatus, and P. conspicillatus) indicated that three factors; species, health status and age were associated with significant (p< 0.001) differences in the proportion of ABLV-positive bats. Other factors including sex, whether the bat bit a person or animal, region, year, and season submitted, were not associated with ABLV. Case data for 74 ABLV-positive bats, including the circumstances in which they were found and clinical signs, is presented. In Chapter 3, the aetiological diagnosis was investigated for 100 consecutive flying fox submissions with neurological signs. ABLV (32%), spinal and head injuries (29%), and neuro-angiostrongylosis (18%) accounted for most neurological syndromes in flying foxes. No evidence of lead poisoning was found in unwell (n=16) or healthy flying foxes (n=50). No diagnosis was reached for 16 cases, all of which were negative for ABLV by TaqMan PCR. The molecular diversity of ABLV was examined in Chapter 4 by sequencing 36 bases of the leader sequence, the entire N gene, and start of the P gene of 28 isolates from pteropid bats and 3 isolates from Yellow-bellied sheathtail (YBST) bats. Phylogenetic analysis indicated all ABLV isolates clustered together as a discrete group within the Lyssavirus genera closely related to rabies virus and European bat lyssavirus-2 isolates. The ABLV lineage consisted of two variants; one (ybst-ABLV) consisted of isolates only from YBST bats, the other (pteropid-ABLV) was common to Black, Grey-headed and Little Red flying foxes. No associations were found between the sequences and either the geographical location or year found, or individual flying fox species. In Chapter 5, 15 inocula prepared from the brains or salivary glands of naturally-infected bats were evaluated by intracerebral (IC) and footpad (FP) inoculation of Quackenbush mice in order to select and characterize a highly virulent inoculum for further use in bats (Inoculum 5). In Chapter 6, nine Grey-headed flying foxes were inoculated with 105.2 to 105.5 MICED50 of Inoculum 5 divided into four sites, left footpad, pectoral muscle, temporal muscle and muzzle. Another bat was inoculated with half this dose divided into the footpad and pectoral muscle only. Seven of 10 bats developed clinical disease of 1 to 4 days duration between PI-days 10 and 19 and were shown to be ABL-positive by FAT, HAM immunoperoxidase staining, virus isolation in mice, and TaqMan PCR. Five of the seven bats displayed overt aggression, one died during a seizure, and one showed intractable agitation, pacing, tremors, and ataxia. Viral antigen was demonstrated throughout the central and peripheral nervous systems and in the epithelial cells of the submandibular salivary glands (n=4). All affected bats had mild to moderate non-suppurative meningoencephalitis and severe ganglioneuritis. No ABLV was detected in three bats that remained well until the end of the experiment on day 82. One survivor developed a strong but transient antibody response. In Chapter 7, the relative virulence of inocula prepared from the brains and salivary glands of experimentally infected flying foxes was evaluated in mice by IC and FP inoculation and TaqMan assay. The effects in mice were correlated to the TaqMan CT value and indicated a crude association between virulence and CT value that has potential application in the selection of inocula. In Chapter 8, 36 Black and Grey-headed flying foxes were vaccinated with one (day 0) or two (+ day 28) doses of Nobivac rabies vaccine and co-vaccinated with keyhole limpet haemocyanin (KLH). All bats responded to the Nobivac vaccine with a rabies-RFFIT titer > 0.5 IU/mL that is nominally indicative of protective immunity. Plasma from bats with rabies titres >2 IU/mL had cross-neutralising ABLV titres >1:154. A specifically developed ELISA detected a strong but transient response to KLH.

Test of the enemy release hypothesis: the native magpie moth prefers a native fireweed (Senecio pinnatifolius) to its introduced congener (S. madagascariensis).

The enemy release hypothesis predicts that native herbivores will either prefer or cause more damage to native than introduced plant species. We tested this using preference and performance experiments in the laboratory and surveys of leaf damage caused by the magpie moth Nyctemera amica on a co-occuring native and introduced species of fireweed (Senecio) in eastern Australia. In the laboratory, ovipositing females and feeding larvae preferred the native S. pinnatifolius over the introduced S. madagascariensis. Larvae performed equally well on foliage of S. pinnatifolius and S. madagascariensis: pupal weights did not differ between insects reared on the two species, but growth rates were significantly faster on S. pinnatifolius. In the field, foliage damage was significantly greater on native S. pinnatifolius than introduced S. madagascariensis. These results support the enemy release hypothesis, and suggest that the failure of native consumers to switch to introduced species contributes to their invasive success. Both plant species experienced reduced, rather than increased, levels of herbivory when growing in mixed populations, as opposed to pure stands in the field; thus, there was no evidence that apparent competition occurred.

Hardness Methods for Testing Maize Kernels

Maize is a highly important crop to many countries around the world, through the sale of the maize crop to domestic processors and subsequent production of maize products and also provides a staple food to subsistance farms in undeveloped countries. In many countries, there have been long-term research efforts to develop a suitable hardness method that could assist the maize industry in improving efficiency in processing as well as possibly providing a quality specification for maize growers, which could attract a premium. This paper focuses specifically on hardness and reviews a number of methodologies as well as important biochemical aspects of maize that contribute to maize hardness used internationally. Numerous foods are produced from maize, and hardness has been described as having an impact on food quality. However, the basis of hardness and measurement of hardness are very general and would apply to any use of maize from any country. From the published literature, it would appear that one of the simpler methods used to measure hardness is a grinding step followed by a sieving step, using multiple sieve sizes. This would allow the range in hardness within a sample as well as average particle size and/or coarse/fine ratio to be calculated. Any of these parameters could easily be used as reference values for the development of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy calibrations. The development of precise NIR calibrations will provide an excellent tool for breeders, handlers, and processors to deliver specific cultivars in the case of growers and bulk loads in the case of handlers, thereby ensuring the most efficient use of maize by domestic and international processors. This paper also considers previous research describing the biochemical aspects of maize that have been related to maize hardness. Both starch and protein affect hardness, with most research focusing on the storage proteins (zeins). Both the content and composition of the zein fractions affect hardness. Genotypes and growing environment influence the final protein and starch content and. to a lesser extent, composition. However, hardness is a highly heritable trait and, hence, when a desirable level of hardness is finally agreed upon, the breeders will quickly be able to produce material with the hardness levels required by the industry.

Two sympatric spotted gum species are molecularly homogeneous.

Large fruited spotted gum eucalypt Corymbia henryi occurs sympatrically with small fruited spotted gum Corymbia citriodora subspecies variegata over a large portion of its range on the east coast of Australia. The two taxa are interfertile, have overlapping flowering times and share a common set of insect and vertebrate pollinators. Previous genetic analysis of both taxa from two geographically remote sites suggested that the two were morphotypes rather than genetically distinct species. In this study we further explore this hypothesis of genic species by expanding sampling broadly through their sympatric locations and examine local-scale spatial genetic structure in stands that differ in species and age composition. Delineation of populations at five microsatellite loci, using an individual-based approach and Bayesian modelling, as well as clustering of individuals based on allele frequencies showed the two species to be molecularly homogeneous. Genetic structure aligned largely with geographic areas of origin, and followed an isolation-by-distance model, where proximal populations were generally less differentiated than more distant ones. At the stand level, spotted gums also generally showed little structure consistent with the high levels of gene flow inferred across the species range. Disturbances in the uniformity of structuring were detected, however, and attributed to localised events giving rise to even aged stands, probably due to regeneration from a few individuals following fire.

Mechanically Ventilated Broiler Sheds: a Possible Source of Aerosolized Salmonella, Campylobacter, and Escherichia coli.

This study assessed the levels of two key pathogens, Salmonella and Campylobacter, along with the indicator organism Escherichia coli in aerosols within and outside poultry sheds. The study ranged over a 3-year period on four poultry farms and consisted of six trials across the boiler production cycle of around 55 days. Weekly testing of litter and aerosols was carried out through the cycle. A key point that emerged is that the levels of airborne bacteria are linked to the levels of these bacteria in litter. This hypothesis was demonstrated by E. coli. The typical levels of E. coli in litter were similar to 10(8) CFU g(-1) and, as a consequence, were in the range of 10(2) to 10(4) CFU m(-3) in aerosols, both inside and outside the shed. The external levels were always lower than the internal levels. Salmonella was only present intermittently in litter and at lower levels (10(3) to 10(5) most probable number [MPN] g(-1)) and consequently present only intermittently and at low levels in air inside (range of 0.65 to 4.4 MPN m(-3)) and once outside (2.3 MPN m(-3)). The Salmonella serovars isolated in litter were generally also isolated from aerosols and dust, with the Salmonella serovars Chester and Sofia being the dominant serovars across these interfaces. Campylobacter was detected late in the production cycle, in litter at levels of around 107 MPN g(-1). Campylobacter was detected only once inside the shed and then at low levels of 2.2 MPN m(-3). Thus, the public health risk from these organisms in poultry environments via the aerosol pathway is minimal.