Exploring the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability on Spring Wheat Yield with the APSIM Decision Support Tool

Assessing the impacts of climate variability on agricultural productivity at regional, national or global scale is essential for defining adaptation and mitigation strategies. We explore in this study the potential changes in spring wheat yields at Swift Current and Melfort, Canada, for different sowing windows under projected climate scenarios (i.e., the representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). First, the APSIM model was calibrated and evaluated at the study sites using data from long term experimental field plots. Then, the impacts of change in sowing dates on final yield were assessed over the 2030-2099 period with a 1990-2009 baseline period of observed yield data, assuming that other crop management practices remained unchanged. Results showed that the performance of APSIM was quite satisfactory with an index of agreement of 0.80, R2 of 0.54, and mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 529 kg/ha and 1023 kg/ha, respectively (MAE = 476 kg/ha and RMSE = 684 kg/ha in calibration phase). Under the projected climate conditions, a general trend in yield loss was observed regardless of the sowing window, with a range from -24 to -94 depending on the site and the RCP, and noticeable losses during the 2060s and beyond (increasing CO2 effects being excluded). Smallest yield losses obtained through earlier possible sowing date (i.e., mid-April) under the projected future climate suggested that this option might be explored for mitigating possible adverse impacts of climate variability. Our findings could therefore serve as a basis for using APSIM as a decision support tool for adaptation/mitigation options under potential climate variability within Western Canada.

Predicting the response of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to liquid and granular phosphorus fertilisers in Australian soils

Liquid forms of phosphorus (P) have been shown to be more effective than granular P for promoting cereal growth in alkaline soils with high levels of free calcium carbonate on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. However, the advantage of liquid over granular P forms of fertiliser has not been fully investigated across the wide range of soils used for grain production in Australia. A glasshouse pot experiment tested if liquid P fertilisers were more effective for growing spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) than granular P (monoammonium phosphate) in 28 soils from all over Australia with soil pH (H2O) ranging from 5.2 to 8.9. Application of liquid P resulted in greater shoot biomass, as measured after 4 weeks' growth (mid to late tillering, Feeks growth stage 2-3), than granular P in 3 of the acidic to neutral soils and in 3 alkaline soils. Shoot dry matter responses of spring wheat to applied liquid or granular P were related to soil properties to determine if any of the properties predicted superior yield responses to liquid P. The calcium carbonate content of soil was the only soil property that significantly contributed to predicting when liquid P was more effective than granular P. Five soil P test procedures (Bray, Colwell, resin, isotopically exchangeable P, and diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT)) were assessed to determine their ability to measure soil test P on subsamples of soil collected before the experiment started. These soil test values were then related to the dry matter shoot yields to assess their ability to predict wheat yield responses to P applied as liquid or granular P. All 5 soil test procedures provided a reasonable prediction of dry matter responses to applied P as either liquid or granular P, with the resin P test having a slightly greater predictive capacity on the range of soils tested. The findings of this investigation suggest that liquid P fertilisers do have some potential applications in non-calcareous soils and confirm current recommendations for use of liquid P fertiliser to grow cereal crops in highly calcareous soils. Soil P testing procedures require local calibration for response to the P source that is going to be used to amend P deficiency.

Validating economic and environmental sustainability of a short-term summer forage legume in dryland wheat cropping systems in south-west Queensland.

The present study set out to test the hypothesis through field and simulation studies that the incorporation of short-term summer legumes, particularly annual legume lablab (Lablab purpureus cv. Highworth), in a fallow-wheat cropping system will improve the overall economic and environmental benefits in south-west Queensland. Replicated, large plot experiments were established at five commercial properties by using their machineries, and two smaller plot experiments were established at two intensively researched sites (Roma and St George). A detailed study on various other biennial and perennial summer forage legumes in rotation with wheat and influenced by phosphorus (P) supply (10 and 40 kg P/ha) was also carried out at the two research sites. The other legumes were lucerne (Medicago sativa), butterfly pea (Clitoria ternatea) and burgundy bean (Macroptilium bracteatum). After legumes, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum) was sown into the legume stubble. The annual lablab produced the highest forage yield, whereas germination, establishment and production of other biennial and perennial legumes were poor, particularly in the red soil at St George. At the commercial sites, only lablab-wheat rotations were experimented, with an increased supply of P in subsurface soil (20 kg P/ha). The lablab grown at the commercial sites yielded between 3 and 6 t/ha forage yield over 2-3 month periods, whereas the following wheat crop with no applied fertiliser yielded between 0.5 to 2.5 t/ha. The wheat following lablab yielded 30% less, on average, than the wheat in a fallow plot, and the profitability of wheat following lablab was slightly higher than that of the wheat following fallow because of greater costs associated with fallow management. The profitability of the lablab-wheat phase was determined after accounting for the input costs and additional costs associated with the management of fallow and in-crop herbicide applications for a fallow-wheat system. The economic and environmental benefits of forage lablab and wheat cropping were also assessed through simulations over a long-term climatic pattern by using economic (PreCAPS) and biophysical (Agricultural Production Systems Simulation, APSIM) decision support models. Analysis of the long-term rainfall pattern (70% in summer and 30% in winter) and simulation studies indicated that ~50% time a wheat crop would not be planted or would fail to produce a profitable crop (grain yield less than 1 t/ha) because of less and unreliable rainfall in winter. Whereas forage lablab in summer would produce a profitable crop, with a forage yield of more than 3 t/ha, ~90% times. Only 14 wheat crops (of 26 growing seasons, i.e. 54%) were profitable, compared with 22 forage lablab (of 25 seasons, i.e. 90%). An opportunistic double-cropping of lablab in summer and wheat in winter is also viable and profitable in 50% of the years. Simulation studies also indicated that an opportunistic lablab-wheat cropping can reduce the potential runoff+drainage by more than 40% in the Roma region, leading to improved economic and environmental benefits.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Post-head-emergence frost in wheat and barley: defining the problem, assessing the damage, and identifying resistance

Radiant frost is a significant production constraint to wheat (Triticum aestivum) and barley (Hordeum vulgare), particularly in regions where spring-habit cereals are grown through winter, maturing in spring. However, damage to winter-habit cereals in reproductive stages is also reported. Crops are particularly susceptible to frost once awns or spikes emerge from the protection of the flag leaf sheath. Post-head-emergence frost (PHEF) is a problem distinct from other cold-mediated production constraints. To date, useful increased PHEF resistance in cereals has not been identified. Given the renewed interest in reproductive frost damage in cereals, it is timely to review the problem. Here we update the extent and impacts of PHEF and document current management options to combat this challenge. We clarify terminology useful for discussing PHEF in relation to chilling and other freezing stresses. We discuss problems characterizing radiant frost, the environmental conditions leading to PHEF damage, and the effects of frost at different growth stages. PHEF resistant cultivars would be highly desirable, to both reduce the incidence of direct frost damage and to allow the timing of crop maturity to be managed to maximize yield potential. A framework of potential adaptation mechanisms is outlined. Clarification of these critical issues will sharpen research focus, improving opportunities to identify genetic sources for improved PHEF resistance.

Genetic analysis of resistance to root-lesion nematode (Pratylenchus thornei) in wheat

The inheritance of resistance to root-lesion nematode was investigated in five synthetic hexaploid wheat lines and two bread wheat lines using a half-diallel design of F1 and F2 crosses. The combining ability of resistance genes in the synthetic hexaploid wheat lines was compared with the performance of the bread wheat line 'GS50a', the source of resistance to Pratylenchus thornei used in Australian wheat breeding programmes. Replicated glasshouse trials identified P. thornei resistance as polygenic and additive in gene action. General combining ability (GCA) of the parents was more important than specific combining ability (SCA) effects in the inheritance of P. thornei resistance in both F1 and F2 populations. The synthetic hexaploid wheat line 'CPI133872' was identified as the best general combiner, however, all five synthetic hexaploid wheat lines possessed better GCA than 'GS50a'. The synthetic hexaploid wheat lines contain novel sources of P. thornei resistance that will provide alternative and more effective sources of resistance to be utilized in wheat breeding programmes

Survey of Fusarium species associated with crown rot of wheat and barley in eastern Australia

Fusarium species associated with crown rot were isolated and identified from 409 wheat, barley or durum wheat crops from the eastern Australian grain belt between 1996 and 1999. Fusarium pseudograminearum was almost the only species isolated from crops in Queensland and New South Wales. F. pseudograminearum was also the most common species in Victoria and South Australia, but F. culmorum was frequently isolated in these states. F. culmorum accounted for more than 70% of isolates from the Victorian high-rainfall (> 500 mm) region and the South-East region of South Australia. F. culmorum comprised 18% of isolates from the Victorian medium-rainfall (350-500 mm) region, and 7% of isolates from each of the Victorian low-rainfall region and the Mid-North region of South Australia. F. avenaceum, F. crookwellense and F. graminearum were isolated very infrequently. The proportion of F. culmorum among isolates of Fusarium from districts in Victoria and South Australia was strongly correlated with climatic conditions around the end of the growing season, especially with rainfall in November.

Sustaining productivity of a Vertosol at Warra, Queensland, with fertilisers, no-tillage or legumes. 8. Effect of duration of lucerne ley on soil nitrogen and water, wheat yield and protein.

Soil nitrogen (N) supply in the Vertosols of southern Queensland, Australia has steadily declined as a result of long-term cereal cropping without N fertiliser application or rotations with legumes. Nitrogen-fixing legumes such as lucerne may enhance soil N supply and therefore could be used in lucerne-wheat rotations. However, lucerne leys in this subtropical environment can create a soil moisture deficit, which may persist for a number of seasons. Therefore, we evaluated the effect of varying the duration of a lucerne ley (for up to 4 years) on soil N increase, N supply to wheat, soil water changes, wheat yields and wheat protein on a fertility-depleted Vertosol in a field experiment between 1989 and 1996 at Warra (26degrees 47'S, 150degrees53'E), southern Queensland. The experiment consisted of a wheat-wheat rotation, and 8 treatments of lucerne leys starting in 1989 (phase 1) or 1990 (phase 2) for 1,2,3 or 4 years duration, followed by wheat cropping. Lucerne DM yield and N yield increased with increasing duration of lucerne leys. Soil N increased over time following 2 years of lucerne but there was no further significant increase after 3 or 4 years of lucerne ley. Soil nitrate concentrations increased significantly with all lucerne leys and moved progressively downward in the soil profile from 1992 to 1995. Soil water, especially at 0.9-1.2 m depth, remained significantly lower for the next 3 years after the termination of the 4 year lucerne ley than under continuous wheat. No significant increase in wheat yields was observed from 1992 to 1995, irrespective of the lucerne ley. However, wheat grain protein concentrations were significantly higher under lucerne-wheat than under wheat wheat rotations for 3-5 years. The lucerne yield and soil water and nitrate-N concentrations were satisfactorily simulated with the APSIM model. Although significant N accretion occurred in the soil following lucerne leys, in drier seasons, recharge of the drier soil profile following long duration lucerne occurred after 3 years. Consequently, 3- and 4-year lucerne-wheat rotations resulted in more variable wheat yields than wheat-wheat rotations in this region. The remaining challenge in using lucerne-wheat rotations is balancing the N accretion benefits with plant-available water deficits, which are most likely to occur in the highly variable rainfall conditions of this region.

The mycotoxins 4-deoxynivalenol, zearalenone and aflatoxin in weather-damaged wheat harvested 1983-1985 in south-east Queensland

A survey for various mycotoxins was carried out on samples of all wheat delivered to nine storage and marketing depots in south-eastern Queensland, selected as most likely to receive mycotoxin-contaminated grain. All wheat was surveyed during 1983, when the degree of weather damage was high. Samples of the poorest grade of wheat from these depots were also surveyed in 1984 and 1985. The surveys included all regions where head scab of wheat caused by Fusariurn graminearurn Schwabe Group 2 had been reported to occur at significant levels. 4-Deoxynivalenol was detected in nearly all pooled samples representing bulk wheat at concentrations ranging from traces of <0.01 up to 1.7 mg kg-1. The highest concentration of zearlenone detected in a pooled wheat sample was 0.04 mg kg-1. In a few samples representing individual wheat deliveries and with up to 2.8% by weight of pink grains, 4-deoxynivalenol concentrations ranged up to 11.7 mg kg-' and zearalenone up to 0.43 mg kg-l. Aflatoxins B,, B2, G1 and G2 were detected in only one pooled sample of wheat, at a total aflatoxin concentration of 0.003 mg kg-'. Ochratoxin A, sterigmatocystin and T-2 toxin were not detected. Higher concentrations of mycotoxins were found in the poorer grades of wheat.

Spectral and thermal sensing for nitrogen and water status in rainfed and irrigated wheat environments

Variable-rate technologies and site-specific crop nutrient management require real-time spatial information about the potential for response to in-season crop management interventions. Thermal and spectral properties of canopies can provide relevant information for non-destructive measurement of crop water and nitrogen stresses. In previous studies, foliage temperature was successfully estimated from canopy-scale (mixed foliage and soil) temperatures and the multispectral Canopy Chlorophyll Content Index (CCCI) was effective in measuring canopy-scale N status in rainfed wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) systems in Horsham, Victoria, Australia. In the present study, results showed that under irrigated wheat systems in Maricopa, Arizona, USA, the theoretical derivation of foliage temperature unmixing produced relationships similar to those in Horsham. Derivation of the CCCI led to an r2 relationship with chlorophyll a of 0.53 after Zadoks stage 43. This was later than the relationship (r2 = 0.68) developed for Horsham after Zadoks stage 33 but early enough to be used for potential mid-season N fertilizer recommendations. Additionally, ground-based hyperspectral data estimated plant N (g kg)1) in Horsham with an r2 = 0.86 but was confounded by water supply and N interactions. By combining canopy thermal and spectral properties, varying water and N status can potentially be identified eventually permitting targeted N applications to those parts of a field where N can be used most efficiently by the crop.

The freezing characteristics of wheat at ear emergence

Wheat is occasionally exposed to freezing temperatures during ear emergence and can suffer severe frost damage. Few studies have attempted to understand the characteristics of freezing and frost damage to wheat during late development stages. It was clearly shown that wheat appears to have an inherent frost resistance to temperatures down to −5 °C but is extensively damaged below this temperature. Acclimation, whilst increasing the frost resistance of winter wheat in a vegetative state was incapable of increasing frost resistance of plants at ear emergence. It is proposed that the ability to upregulate frost resistance is lost once vernalisation requirement is fulfilled. Culms and ears of wheat were able to escape frost damage at temperatures below −5 °C by supercooling even to as low as −15 °C and evidence collected by infrared thermography suggested that individual culms on a plant froze as independent units during freezing with little or no cross ice-nucleation strategies to protect wheat from frost damage in the field appear to revolve around avoiding ice nucleation.

Applications of pedigree-based genome mapping in wheat and barley breeding programs.

The aim of the pedigree-based genome mapping project is to investigate and develop systems for implementing marker assisted selection to improve the efficiency of selection and increase the rate of genetic gain in breeding programs. Pedigree-based whole genome marker application provides a vehicle for incorporating marker technologies into applied breeding programs by bridging the gap between marker-trait association and marker implementation. We report on the development of protocols for implementation of pedigree-based whole genome marker analysis in breeding programs within the Australian northern winter cereals region. Examples of applications from the Queensland DPI&F wheat and barley breeding programs are provided, commenting on the use of microsatellites and other types of molecular markers for routine genomic analysis, the integration of genotypic, phenotypic and pedigree information for targeted wheat and barley lines, the genomic impacts of strong selection pressure in case study pedigrees, and directions for future pedigree-based marker development and analysis.

Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner): can wheat stubble protect cotton plants against attack?

When investigating strategies for Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) control, it is important to understand oviposition behaviour. Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) was sown into standing wheat (Triticum astivum L.) stubble in a closed arena to investigate the effect of stubble on H. armigera moth behaviour and oviposition. Infrared cameras were used to track moths and determine whether stubble acted as a physical barrier or provided camouflage to cotton plants, thereby reducing oviposition. Searching activity was observed to peak shortly before dawn (03:00 and 04:00 h) and remained high until just after dawn (4 h window). Moths spent more time resting on cotton plants than spiralling above them, and the least time flying across the arena. While female moths spent more time searching for cotton plants growing in wheat stubble, the difference in oviposition was not significant. As similar numbers of eggs were laid on cotton plants with stubble (3.5/plant SE +/- 0.87) and without stubble (2.5/plant SE +/- 0.91), wheat stubble does not appear to provide camouflage to cotton plants. There was no significant difference in the location of eggs deposited on cotton plants with and without stubble, although more eggs were laid on the tops of cotton leaves in wheat stubble. As the spatial and temporal distribution of eggs laid on the cotton plant is a crucial component of population stability, eggs laid on the upper side of leaves on cotton plants may be more prone to fatalities caused by environmental factors such as wind and rain. Therefore, although stubble did not influence the number of eggs laid, it did affect their distribution on the plant, which may result in increased mortality of eggs on cotton plants sown into standing wheat stubble.

Long-term persistence and efficacy of spinosad against Rhyzopertha dominica (Coleoptera : Bostrychidae) in wheat

A laboratory study was undertaken to determine the persistence and efficacy of spinosad against Rhyzopertha dominica (F.) in wheat stored for 9 months at 30 degrees C and 55 and 70% relative humidity. The aim was to investigate the potential of spinosad for protecting wheat from R. dominica during long-term storage in warm climates. Wheat was treated with spinosad at 0.1, 0.5 and 1 mg kg(-1) grain and sampled after 0, 1.5, 3, 4.5, 6, 7.5 and 9 months of storage for bioassays and residue analyses. Residues were estimated to have declined by 30% during 9 months of storage at 30 degrees C and there was no effect of relative humidity. Spinosad applied at 0.5 or 1 mg kg(-1) was completely effective for 9 months, with 100% adult mortality after 14 days of exposure and no five F, adults produced. Adult mortality was < 100% in some samples of wheat treated with 0.1 mg kg(-1) of spinosad, and live progeny were produced in all samples treated at this level. The results show that spinosad is likely to be an effective grain protectant against R. dominica in wheat stored in warm climates.

Effect of phosphine dose on sorption in wheat

BACKGROUND: In spite of the extensive use of phosphine fumigation around the world to control insects in stored grain, and the knowledge that grain sorbs phosphine, the effect of concentration on sorption has not been quantified. A laboratory study was undertaken, therefore, to investigate the effect of phosphine dose on sorption in wheat. Wheat was added to glass flasks to achieve filling ratios of 0.25-0.95, and the flasks were sealed and injected with phosphine at 0.1-1.5 mg L-1 based on flask volume. Phosphine concentration was monitored for 8 days at 25°C and 55% RH. RESULTS: When sorption occurred, phosphine concentration declined with time and was approximately first order, i.e. the data fitted an exponential decay equation. Percentage sorption per day was directly proportional to filling ratio, and was negatively correlated with dose for any given filling ratio. Based on the results, a tenfold increase in dose would result in a halving of the sorption constant and the percentage daily loss. Wheat was less sorptive if it was fumigated for a second time. CONCLUSIONS: The results have implications for the use of phosphine for control of insects in stored wheat. This study shows that dose is a factor that must be considered when trying to understand the impact of sorption on phosphine concentration, and that there appears to be a limit to the capacity of wheat to sorb phosphine.