2 resultados para Spatiotemporal model
em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture
Resumo:
Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) has been used as a model organism to develop and test important ecological and evolutionary concepts and is also a major pest of grain and grain products globally. This beetle species is assumed to be a good colonizer of grain storages through anthropogenic movement of grain, and active dispersal by flight is considered unlikely. Studies using T. castaneum have therefore used confined or walking insects. We combine an ecological study of dispersal with an analysis of gene flow using microsatellites to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and adult flight of T. castaneum in an ecological landscape in eastern Australia. Flying beetles were caught in traps at grain storages and in fields at least 1 km from the nearest stored grain at regular intervals for an entire year. Significantly more beetles were trapped at storages than in fields, and almost no beetles were caught in native vegetation reserves many kilometres from the nearest stored grain. Genetic differentiation between beetles caught at storages and in fields was low, indicating that although T. castaneum is predominantly aggregated around grain storages, active dispersal takes place to the extent that significant gene flow occurs between them, mitigating founder effects and genetic drift. By combining ecological and molecular techniques, we reveal much higher levels of active dispersal through adult flight in T. castaneum than previously thought. We conclude that the implications of adult flight to previous and future studies on this model organism warrant consideration.
Resumo:
Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.