Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Stochastic model for simulating maize yield

Maize is one of the most important crops in the world. The products generated from this crop are largely used in the starch industry, the animal and human nutrition sector, and biomass energy production and refineries. For these reasons, there is much interest in figuring the potential grain yield of maize genotypes in relation to the environment in which they will be grown, as the productivity directly affects agribusiness or farm profitability. Questions like these can be investigated with ecophysiological crop models, which can be organized according to different philosophies and structures. The main objective of this work is to conceptualize a stochastic model for predicting maize grain yield and productivity under different conditions of water supply while considering the uncertainties of daily climate data. Therefore, one focus is to explain the model construction in detail, and the other is to present some results in light of the philosophy adopted. A deterministic model was built as the basis for the stochastic model. The former performed well in terms of the curve shape of the above-ground dry matter over time as well as the grain yield under full and moderate water deficit conditions. Through the use of a triangular distribution for the harvest index and a bivariate normal distribution of the averaged daily solar radiation and air temperature, the stochastic model satisfactorily simulated grain productivity, i.e., it was found that 10,604 kg ha(-1) is the most likely grain productivity, very similar to the productivity simulated by the deterministic model and for the real conditions based on a field experiment. © 2012 American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers.

Ultraviolet radiation effects on fruit surface respiration and chlorophyll fluorescence

High-value fruit crops are exposed to a range of environmental conditions that can reduce fruit quality. Solar injury (SI) or sunburn is a common disorder in tropical, sub-tropical, and temperate climates and is related to: 1) high fruit surface temperature; 2) high visible light intensity; and, 3) ultraviolet radiation (UV). Positional changes in fruit that are caused by increased weight or abrupt changes that result from summer pruning, limb breakage, or other damage to the canopy can expose fruit to high solar radiation levels, increased fruit surface temperatures, and increased UV exposure that are higher than the conditions to which they are adapted. In our studies, we examined the effects of high fruit surface temperature, saturating photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR), and short-term UV exposure on chlorophyll fluorescence, respiration, and photosynthesis of fruit peel tissues from tropical and temperate fruit in a simulation of these acute environmental changes. All tropical fruits (citrus, macadamia, avocado, pineapple, and custard apple) and the apple cultivars 'Gala', 'Gold Rush', and 'Granny Smith' increased dark respiration (A0) when exposed to UV, suggesting that UV repair mechanisms were induced. The maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm) and the quantum efficiency of photosystem II (ΦII) were unaffected, indicating no adverse effects on photosystem II (PSII). In contrast, 'Braeburn' apple had a reduced Fv/Fm with no increase in A0 on all sampling dates. There was a consistent pattern in all studies. When Fv/Fm was unaffected by UV treatment, A0 increased significantly. Conversely, when Fv/Fm was reduced by UV treatment, then A0 was unaffected. The pattern suggests that when UV repair mechanisms are effective, PSII is adequately protected, and that this protection occurs at the cost of higher respiration. However, when the UV repair mechanisms are ineffective, not only is PSII damaged, but there is additional short-term damage to the repair mechanisms, indicated by a lack of respiration to provide energy.

The limit to wheat water-use efficiency in eastern Australia. I. Gradients in the radiation environment and atmospheric demand

In the wheatbelt of eastern Australia, rainfall shifts from winter dominated in the south (South Australia, Victoria) to summer dominated in the north (northern New South Wales, southern Queensland). The seasonality of rainfall, together with frost risk, drives the choice of cultivar and sowing date, resulting in a flowering time between October in the south and August in the north. In eastern Australia, crops are therefore exposed to contrasting climatic conditions during the critical period around flowering, which may affect yield potential, and the efficiency in the use of water (WUE) and radiation (RUE). In this work we analysed empirical and simulated data, to identify key climatic drivers of potential water- and radiation-use efficiency, derive a simple climatic index of environmental potentiality, and provide an example of how a simple climatic index could be used to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in resource-use efficiency and potential yield in eastern Australia. Around anthesis, from Horsham to Emerald, median vapour pressure deficit (VPD) increased from 0.92 to 1.28 kPa, average temperature increased from 12.9 to 15.2°C, and the fraction of diffuse radiation (FDR) decreased from 0.61 to 0.41. These spatial gradients in climatic drivers accounted for significant gradients in modelled efficiencies: median transpiration WUE (WUEB/T) increased southwards at a rate of 2.6% per degree latitude and median RUE increased southwards at a rate of 1.1% per degree latitude. Modelled and empirical data confirmed previously established relationships between WUEB/T and VPD, and between RUE and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and FDR. Our analysis also revealed a non-causal inverse relationship between VPD and radiation-use efficiency, and a previously unnoticed causal positive relationship between FDR and water-use efficiency. Grain yield (range 1-7 t/ha) measured in field experiments across South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland (n = 55) was unrelated to the photothermal quotient (Pq = PAR/T) around anthesis, but was significantly associated (r2 = 0.41, P < 0.0001) with newly developed climatic index: a normalised photothermal quotient (NPq = Pq . FDR/VPD). This highlights the importance of diffuse radiation and vapour pressure deficit as sources of variation in yield in eastern Australia. Specific experiments designed to uncouple VPD and FDR and more mechanistic crop models might be required to further disentangle the relationships between efficiencies and climate drivers.

Analysis of Crude Protein and Allergen Abundance in Peanuts (Arachis hypogaea cv. Walter) from Three Growing Regions in Australia

The effects of plant growth conditions on concentrations of proteins, including allergens, in peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) kernels are largely unknown. Peanuts (cv. Walter) were grown at five sites (Taabinga, Redvale, Childers, Bundaberg, and Kairi) covering three commercial growing regions in Queensland, Australia. Differences in temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation during the growing season were evaluated. Kernel yield varied from 2.3 t/ha (Kairi) to 3.9 t/ha (Childers), probably due to differences in solar radiation. Crude protein appeared to vary only between Kairi and Childers, whereas Ara h 1 and 2 concentrations were similar in all locations. 2D-DIGE revealed significant differences in spot volumes for only two minor protein spots from peanuts grown in the five locations. Western blotting using peanut-allergic serum revealed no qualitative differences in recognition of antigens. It was concluded that peanuts grown in different growing regions in Queensland, Australia, had similar protein compositions and therefore were unlikely to show differences in allergenicity.