From inferential statistics to climate knowledge

Climate variability and change are risk factors for climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. Managing these risks requires "climate knowledge", i.e. a sound understanding of causes and consequences of climate variability and knowledge of potential management options that are suitable in light of the climatic risks posed. Often such information about prognostic variables (e.g. yield, rainfall, run-off) is provided in probabilistic terms (e.g. via cumulative distribution functions, CDF), whereby the quantitative assessments of these alternative management options is based on such CDFs. Sound statistical approaches are needed in order to assess whether difference between such CDFs are intrinsic features of systems dynamics or chance events (i.e. quantifying evidences against an appropriate null hypothesis). Statistical procedures that rely on such a hypothesis testing framework are referred to as "inferential statistics" in contrast to descriptive statistics (e.g. mean, median, variance of population samples, skill scores). Here we report on the extension of some of the existing inferential techniques that provides more relevant and adequate information for decision making under uncertainty.

Differentiation of Solenopsis invicta social forms using high resolution melt PCR.

Solenopsis invicta Buren (red imported fire ant) are invasive pests that have the capability of major destructive impacts on lifestyle, ecology and economy. Control of this species is dependent, in part, upon ability to estimate the potential spread from newly discovered nests. The potential for spread and the spread characteristics differ between monogyne and polygyne social forms. Prior to this study, differentiation of the two social forms in laboratory test samples commonly used a method involving restriction endonuclease digestion of an amplified Gp-9 fragment. Success of this assay is limited by the quality of DNA, which in the field-collected insects may be affected by temporary storage in unfavourable conditions. Here, we describe an alternative and highly objective assay based upon a high resolution melt technique following preamplification of a significantly shorter Gp-9 fragment than that required for restriction endonuclease digestion. We demonstrate the application of this assay to a S. invicta incursion in Queensland, Australia, using field samples from which DNA may be partially degraded. The reductions in hands-on requirements and overall duration of the assay underpin its suitability for high-throughput testing.