Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Influence of Measured Characteristics on Price Received for Merino Wool from the Traprock Area of Southern Queensland

In this study of a commercial wool clip sold in the years 1991/92-1996/97, the effect of wool characteristics, (staple length, staple strength, fibre diameter, position of break, vegetable matter, hauteur, yield and coefficient of variation of staple length) on price was explored together with their effect on the ratio of price received per lot to the average weekly price (1994/95 basis) for clean wool of the same fibre diameter. Fibre diameter and where the point of break occurred had the most effect on price. As hauteur, staple length and yield increased, so did the price ratio but it decreased as the percentage of vegetable matter and the coefficient of variation of the staple length increased. The ratio of proceeds if all wool had been sold at average weekly market price, to proceeds if all wool had been 21µm or less, indicated little financial advantage over the six-year period as most sale lots were under 22µm. To raise the proceeds of sale above the proceeds estimated using average market price for each lot, the analyses suggested that hauteur, staple length and its coefficient of variation, could be considered, in addition to fibre diameter, when sourcing wethers for purchase. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.