Optimal management of agricultural systems

To remain competitive, many agricultural systems are now being run along business lines. Systems methodologies are being incorporated, and here evolutionary computation is a valuable tool for identifying more profitable or sustainable solutions. However, agricultural models typically pose some of the more challenging problems for optimisation. This chapter outlines these problems, and then presents a series of three case studies demonstrating how they can be overcome in practice. Firstly, increasingly complex models of Australian livestock enterprises show that evolutionary computation is the only viable optimisation method for these large and difficult problems. On-going research is taking a notably efficient and robust variant, differential evolution, out into real-world systems. Next, models of cropping systems in Australia demonstrate the challenge of dealing with competing objectives, namely maximising farm profit whilst minimising resource degradation. Pareto methods are used to illustrate this trade-off, and these results have proved to be most useful for farm managers in this industry. Finally, land-use planning in the Netherlands demonstrates the size and spatial complexity of real-world problems. Here, GIS-based optimisation techniques are integrated with Pareto methods, producing better solutions which were acceptable to the competing organizations. These three studies all show that evolutionary computation remains the only feasible method for the optimisation of large, complex agricultural problems. An extra benefit is that the resultant population of candidate solutions illustrates trade-offs, and this leads to more informed discussions and better education of the industry decision-makers.

Molecular characterisation, pathogenesis and fungicide sensitivity of Pythium spp. from table beet (Beta vulgaris var. vulgaris) grown in the Lockyer Valley, Queensland

Table beet production in the Lockyer Valley of south-eastern Queensland is known to be adversely affected by soilborne root disease from infection by Pythium spp. However, little is known regarding the species or genotypes that are the causal agents of both pre- and post-emergence damping off. Based on RFLP analysis with HhaI, HinfI and MboI of the PCR amplified ITS region DNA from soil and diseased plant samples, the majority of 130 Pythium isolates could be grouped into three genotypes, designated LVP A, LVP B and LVP C. These groups comprised 43, 41 and 7% of all isolates, respectively. Deoxyribonucleic acid sequence analysis of the ITS region indicated that LVP A was a strain of Pythium aphanidermatum, with greater than 99% similarity to the corresponding P. aphanidermatum sequences from the publicly accessible databases. The DNA sequences from LVP B and LVP C were most closely related to P. ultimum and P. dissotocum, respectively. Lower frequencies of other distinct isolates with unique RFLP patterns were also obtained with high levels of similarity (>97%) to P. heterothallicum, P. periplocum and genotypes of P. ultimum other than LVP B. Inoculation trials of 1- and 4-week-old beet seedlings indicated that compared with isolates of the LVP B genotype, a higher frequency of LVP A isolates caused disease. Isolates with the LVP A, LVP B and LVP C genotypes were highly sensitive to the fungicide Ridomil MZ, which suppressed radial growth on V8 agar between approximately four and thirty fold at 5 μg/mL metalaxyl and 40 μg/mL mancozeb, a concentration far lower than the recommended field application rate.

Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the largest reef system in the world; it covers an area of approximately 2,225,000 km² in the northern Queensland continental shelf. There are approximately 750 reefs that exist within 40 km of the Queensland coast. Recent research has identified that poor water quality is having negative impacts on the GBR (Haynes et al. 2007). The Fitzroy Basin covers 143,000 km² and is the largest catchment draining into the GBR as well as being one of the largest catchments in Australia (Karfs et al. 2009). The Burdekin Catchment is the second largest catchment entering into the GBR and covers 133,432 km².The prime determinant for the changes in water quality entering into the GBR have been attributed to grazing, with beef production the largest single land use industry comprising 90% of the land area (Karfs et al. 2009). Extensive beef production contributes over $1 billion dollars to the national economy annually and employs over 9000 people, many in rural communities (Gordon 2007). ‘Economic modelling of grazing systems in the Fitzroy and Burdekin catchments’ was a joint project with the Fitzroy Basin Association and the Queensland Department of Employment Economic Development and Innovation. The project was formed under the federally funded Caring For Our Country and the Reef Rescue programs. The project objectives were as follows; * Quantifying the costs of over-utilising available pasture and the resulting sediment leaving a representative farm for four of the major land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments and identifying economically optimal pasture utilisation rates * Estimating the cost of reducing pasture utilisation rates below the determined optimal * Using this information, guide the selection of appropriate tools to achieve reduced utilisation rates e.g. extension process versus incentive payments or a combination of both * Model the biophysical and economic impacts of altering grazing systems to restore land condition e.g. from C condition to B condition for four land systems in the Burdekin or Fitzroy catchments.

APSIM – Evolution towards a new generation of agricultural systems simulation

Agricultural systems models worldwide are increasingly being used to explore options and solutions for the food security, climate change adaptation and mitigation and carbon trading problem domains. APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) is one such model that continues to be applied and adapted to this challenging research agenda. From its inception twenty years ago, APSIM has evolved into a framework containing many of the key models required to explore changes in agricultural landscapes with capability ranging from simulation of gene expression through to multi-field farms and beyond. Keating et al. (2003) described many of the fundamental attributes of APSIM in detail. Much has changed in the last decade, and the APSIM community has been exploring novel scientific domains and utilising software developments in social media, web and mobile applications to provide simulation tools adapted to new demands. This paper updates the earlier work by Keating et al. (2003) and chronicles the changing external challenges and opportunities being placed on APSIM during the last decade. It also explores and discusses how APSIM has been evolving to a “next generation” framework with improved features and capabilities that allow its use in many diverse topics.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Improving cost-effectiveness of supplementation systems for breeder herds in northern Australia

Low level strategic supplements constitute one of the few options for northern beef producers to increase breeder productivity and profitability. Objectives of the project were to improve the cost-effectiveness of using such supplements and to improve supplement delivery systems. Urea-based supplements fed during the dry season can substantially reduce breeder liveweight loss and increase fertility during severe dry seasons. Also when fed during the late wet season these supplements increased breeder body liveweight and increased fertility of breeders in low body condition. Intake of dry lick supplements fed free choice is apparently determined primarily by the palatability of supplements relative to pasture, and training of cattle appears to be of limited importance. Siting of supplementation points has some effect on supplement intake, but little effect on grazing behaviour. Economic analysis of supplementation (urea, phosphorus or molasses) and weaning strategies was based on the relative efficacy of these strategies to maintain breeder body condition late in the dry season. Adequate body condition of breeders at this time of the year is needed to avoid mortality from under-nutrition and achieve satisfactory fertility of breeders during the following wet season. Supplements were highly cost-effective when they reduced mortality, but economic returns were generally low if the only benefit was increased fertility.

Evaluation of a systems approach to control Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni)in stonefruit as an alternative to fenthion

Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) is a significant quarantine pest of stonefruit. To access domestic markets within Australia stonefruit require treatment to ensure they are free of fruit flies. Due to the recent restriction of the organophosphate pesticides, fenthion and dimethoate, the stonefruit industry now faces a significant challenge to control fruit flies. In this field trial we quantified the level of control achieved by a 'best case' systems approach that relied on currently available and registered control measures. This system included protein bait sprays, Male Annihilation Technique, insecticide cover sprays of trichlorfon, maldison and spinetoram and inspection and culling of damaged fruit. We found that in two out of the three trial orchards, packed fruit samples from Gatton (QLD) and Bangalow (NSW) had low levels of fruit fly infestation; 1.47 and 2.97% respectively. However, at the third property located at Alstonville (NSW) a high level of infestation (51.63%) was found in packed nectarines, which was likely attributed to the late implementation of the systems approach. This trial has demonstrated the potential for fruit fly control without relying on fenthion, however further modification of the system is needed to refine and increase efficacy.