Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

A scientific approach to agent selection

The prioritisation of potential agents on the basis of likely efficacy is an important step in biological control because it can increase the probability of a successful biocontrol program, and reduce risks and costs. In this introductory paper we define success in biological control, review how agent selection has been approached historically, and outline the approach to agent selection that underpins the structure of this special issue on agent selection. Developing criteria by which to judge the success of a biocontrol agent (or program) provides the basis for agent selection decisions. Criteria will depend on the weed, on the ecological and management context in which that weed occurs, and on the negative impacts that biocontrol is seeking to redress. Predicting which potential agents are most likely to be successful poses enormous scientific challenges. 'Rules of thumb', 'scoring systems' and various conceptual and quantitative modelling approaches have been proposed to aid agent selection. However, most attempts have met with limited success due to the diversity and complexity of the systems in question. This special issue presents a series of papers that deconstruct the question of agent choice with the aim of progressively improving the success rate of biological control. Specifically they ask: (i) what potential agents are available and what should we know about them? (ii) what type, timing and degree of damage is required to achieve success? and (iii) which potential agent will reach the necessary density, at the right time, to exert the required damage in the target environment?

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Reassessing spatial and temporal dynamics of kangaroo populations

Long-running datasets from aerial surveys of kangaroos (Macropus giganteus, Macropus [uliginosus, Macropus robustus and Macropus rufus) across Queensland, New South Wales and South Australia have been analysed, seeking better predictors of rates of increase which would allow aerial surveys to be undertaken less frequently than annually. Early models of changes in kangaroo numbers in response to rainfall had shown great promise, but much variability. We used normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) instead, reasoning that changes in pasture condition would provide a better predictor than rainfall. However, except at a fine scale, NDVI proved no better; although two linked periods of rainfall proved useful predictors of rates of increase, this was only in some areas for some species. The good correlations reported in earlier studies were a consequence of data dominated by large droughtinduced adult mortality, whereas over a longer time frame and where changes between years are less dramatic, juvenile survival has the strongest influence on dynamics. Further, harvesting, density dependence and competition with domestic stock are additional and important influences and it is now clear that kangaroo movement has a greater influence on population dynamics than had been assumed. Accordingly, previous conclusions about kangaroo populations as simple systems driven by rainfall need to be reassessed. Examination of this large dataset has permitted descriptions of shifts in distribution of three species across eastern Australia, changes in dispersion in response to rainfall, and an evaluation of using harvest statistics as an index of density and harvest rate. These results have been combined into a risk assessment and decision theory framework to identify optimal monitoring strategies.

Sapindaceae production and research in Australia.

Australia has an abundance of native Sapindaceae, with a few species that are considered to have an edible aril. A number of these have minor 'bush food' status but have limited commercial potential. Longan, lychee and rambutan were introduced into Australia from the mid 1800s. Serious commercialization of these crops began from the 1970s when farmers in sub-tropical and tropical regions of Australia were seeking new commercial horticultural opportunities. Currently the value of these industries is in the vicinity of $35 M with lychee the predominate crop followed by longan and rambutan respectively. Despite Australia being a minor producer on the world scale it has contributed significantly to the scientific and production developments through the combined efforts of researchers and innovative growers. This paper details the development and status of the commercial Sapindaceae in Australia and highlights production and research activities.

Management of pain associated with bull castration

There is a need to have infertile male cattle in the Australian beef herd. There is, currently, no non-invasive alternative to the castration of cattle, nor is there likely to be one in the near future. There is ample scientific evidence demonstrating that castration causes stress and pain, and with the community increasingly scrutinising farming practices and seeking assurance that they are humane, there is a clear need to develop practical strategies for minimising the pain and stress associated with castration.

Estimating the economic implications for grazing properties in the Mackay Whitsunday catchments of practice changes to more sustainable landscapes.

In the Mackay Whitsunday region, the dominant grazing based operations are small intensive systems that heavily utilise soil, nutrient and chemical management practices. To improve water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef, graziers are being encouraged to adopt improved management practices. However, while there is good understanding of the management changes required to reach improved practice classification levels, there is poor understanding of the likely economic implications for a grazier seeking to move from a lower level classification to the higher level classifications. This paper provides analysis of the costs and benefits associated with adoption of intensive grazing best management practices to determine the effect on the profitability and economic sustainability of grazing enterprises, and the economic viability of capital investment to achieve best management. The results indicate that financial incentives are likely to be required to encourage smaller graziers to invest in changing their management practices, while larger graziers may only require incentives to balance the risk involved with the transition to better management practices.

Planet of the cavendish - understanding the domination

Those seeking to bring change to cultivars sold in the banana markets of the world have encountered major difficulties over the years. Change has been sought because of production difficulties caused by banana diseases such as Fusarium wilt or a desire to invigorate a stagnant market and obtain a competitive advantage by the introduction of diversity of product. Currently the world banana scene is dominated by cultivars from the Cavendish subgroup with their production in excess of 40% of total world production of banana and plantain combined, and in most western countries Cavendish is synonymous with banana. But Cavendish production usually necessitates very regular applications of pesticides, particularly fungicides for Mycosphaerella leaf spots control. So genetic resistance to these and other diseases would be very beneficial to minimizing costs of production, as well as reducing health risks to banana workers and the general population and minimizing impacts on the environment. In recent years, the overall market sales of some crops, such as tomatoes, have increased by providing diversity of cultivars to consumers. Can the same be done for banana? Perhaps a better understanding of how we have arrived at our current situation and the forces that have shaped our preference for Cavendish will allow us to plan more strategic crop improvement research which has enhanced chances of adoption by the banana industries of the world. A scoping study was recently undertaken in Australia to determine the current market opportunity for alternative cultivars and provide a roadmap for the industry to successfully develop this market. A multidisciplinary team reviewed the literature, surveyed the supply chain, analyzed gross margins and conducted consumer and sensory evaluations of 'new' cultivars. This has provided insight on why Cavendish dominates the market, which is the focus of this paper, and we believe will provide a solid foundation for future progress.

The role of BoFLC2 in cauliflower (Brassica oleracea var. botrytis L.) reproductive development

In agricultural species that are sexually propagated or whose marketable organ is a reproductive structure, management of the flowering process is critical. Inflorescence development in cauliflower is particularly complex, presenting unique challenges for those seeking to predict and manage flowering time. In this study, an integrated physiological and molecular approach was used to clarify the environmental control of cauliflower reproductive development at the molecular level. A functional allele of BoFLC2 was identified for the first time in an annual brassica, along with an allele disrupted by a frameshift mutation (boflc2). In a segregating F2 population derived from a cross between late-flowering (BoFLC2) and early-flowering (boflc2) lines, this gene behaved in a dosage-dependent manner and accounted for up to 65% of flowering time variation. Transcription of BoFLC genes was reduced by vernalization, with the floral integrator BoFT responding inversely. Overall expression of BoFT was significantly higher in early-flowering boflc2 lines, supporting the idea that BoFLC2 plays a key role in maintaining the vegetative state. A homologue of Arabidopsis VIN3 was isolated for the first time in a brassica crop species and was up-regulated by two days of vernalization, in contrast to findings in Arabidopsis where prolonged exposure to cold was required to elicit up-regulation. The correlations observed between gene expression and flowering time in controlled-environment experiments were validated with gene expression analyses of cauliflowers grown outdoors under 'natural' vernalizing conditions, indicating potential for transcript levels of flowering genes to form the basis of predictive assays for curd initiation and flowering time.

The host range of three biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus (Lamarck) (Hemiptera: Dactylopiidae) and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntia spp. (Cactaceae) in Australia

The host range of two newly imported biotypes of Dactylopius tomentosus and their potential as biological control agents of Cylindropuntia spp. were investigated. A third biotype (imbricata) of D. tomentosus previously released in Australia to control C. imbricata was also screened to determine if it will feed on other species of Cylindropuntia occurring in Australia. Efficacy trials were conducted to evaluate the ability of the biotypes to retard the growth or kill those plant species supporting development of four or more individuals in the host test trials. The host range of the three biotypes of D. tomentosus was restricted to the genus Cylindropuntia. However, the biotypes showed varying degrees of specificity within this genus. The imbricata biotype was the only biotype to develop on Australian C. rosea provenances, albeit with a range of developmental success on all C. rosea provenances tested. The Spanish provenance supported the highest development success followed by Grawin (NSW), Lorne Station (NSW) while the least preferred was the Mexican provenance. The rosea and cholla biotypes were unsuitable candidates to control C. rosea in Australia. However, the efficacy trials showed that the cholla biotype had a high impact on four of the eight naturalised Cylindropuntia species in Australia. This biotype established rapidly and the sustained feeding of one fecund female and her progeny killed potted plants of C. imbricata and C. fulgida at week 18. This biotype has the potential to be an effective agent against C. fulgida, C. imbricata, C. kleiniae and C. tunicata and, as a consequence, an application seeking its release in Australia has been lodged.

The host specificity and climatic suitability of the gall flyCecidochares connexa(Diptera: Tephritidae), a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata(Asteraceae) in Australia

The gall fly Cecidochares connexa (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a potential biological control agent for Chromolaena odorata in Australia. Its host specificity was determined against 18 species in the tribe Eupatorieae (Family Asteraceae) in which C. odorata belongs, in quarantine in Brisbane, Australia. Oviposition occurred and flies developed on only C. odorata and Praxelis clematidea, both of which are in the subtribe Praxelinae. P. clematidea is considered a weed outside tropical America. In both multiple-species-minus-C. odorata choice tests and single-species no-choice tests, the mean number of galls/plant was significantly greater on C. odorata (48 and 41, respectively) than on P. clematidea (2 and 9, respectively). There were also significantly more adults emerging from C. odorata (mean 129 and 169, respectively) in the two types of tests than from P. clematidea (1 and 8, respectively). Paired choice, multiple generation (continuation) and time dependent tests further clarified the extent that C. connexa could develop on P. clematidea. In these tests, the mean number of galls formed and the mean number of emerging adults were consistently less for P. clematidea than C. odorata and populations of C. connexa could not be maintained on P. clematidea. Galls were not seen on any other plant species tested. This study supports the results of host specificity testing conducted in seven other countries and confirms that C. connexa poses little risk to other plant species in Australia. C. connexa has been released in 10 countries and an application seeking approval to release in Australia has been submitted to the Australian Government.

Temporal Variation in Physiological Biomarkers in Black Flying-Foxes (Pteropus alecto), Australia

Bats of the genus Pteropus (Pteropodidae) are recognised as the natural host of multiple emerging pathogenic viruses of animal and human health significance, including henipaviruses, lyssaviruses and ebolaviruses. Some studies have suggested that physiological and ecological factors may be associated with Hendra virus infection in flying-foxes in Australia; however, it is essential to understand the normal range and seasonal variability of physiological biomarkers before seeking physiological associations with infection status. We aimed to measure a suite of physiological biomarkers in P. alecto over time to identify any seasonal fluctuations and to examine possible associations with life-cycle and environmental stressors. We sampled 839 adult P. alecto in the Australian state of Queensland over a 12-month period. The adjusted population means of every assessed hematologic and biochemical parameter were within the reported reference range on every sampling occasion. However, within this range, we identified significant temporal variation in these parameters, in urinary parameters and body condition, which primarily reflected the normal annual life cycle. We found no evident effect of remarkable physiological demands or nutritional stress, and no indication of clinical disease driving any parameter values outside the normal species reference range. Our findings identify underlying temporal physiological changes at the population level that inform epidemiological studies and assessment of putative physiological risk factors driving Hendra virus infection in P. alecto. More broadly, the findings add to the knowledge of Pteropus populations in terms of their relative resistance and resilience to emerging infectious disease.