Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Proof of concept study to improve the quality and safety of kangaroo meat

The harvesting of kangaroos for human and pet food consumption has become a significant domestic and export industry. Kangaroo meat is low in fat and contains polyunsaturated fats which are known for their health benefits.

Modelling interactions between farm-level structural adjustment and a regional economy: A case of the Australian rice industry

Climate change and on-going water policy reforms will likely contribute to on-farm and regional structural adjustment in Australia. This paper gathers empirical evidence of farm-level structural adjustments and integrates these with a regional equilibrium model to investigate sectoral and regional impacts of climate change and recent water use policy on rice industry. We find strong evidence of adjustments to the farming system, enabled by existing diversity in on-farm production. A further loss of water with additional pressures to adopt less intensive and larger-scale farming, will however reduce the net number of farm businesses, which may affect regional rice production. The results from a regional CGE model show impacts on the regional economy over and above the direct cost of the environmental water, although a net reduction in real economic output and real income is partially offset by gains in rest of the Australia through the reallocation or resources. There is some interest within the industry and from potential new corporate entrants in the relocation of some rice production to the north. However, strong government support would be crucial to implement such relocation.

Use of phosphorus fertiliser for increased productivity of legume-based sown pastures in the Brigalow Belt region – a review

The Brigalow Belt bioregion of southern and central Queensland supports a large percentage of northern Australia's sown pastures and beef herd. The Brigalow soils were widely thought to have adequate phosphorus (P) for cropping, sown pastures and grazing animals, which has led to almost no use of P fertiliser on sown pastures. The majority of pastures established in the region were sown with tropical grasses only (i.e. no legumes were sown). Under grass-only pastures, nitrogen (N) mineralisation rates decline with time since establishment as N is 'tied-up' in soil organic matter. This process leads to a significant decline in pasture and animal productivity and is commonly called 'pasture rundown'. Incorporating pasture legumes has been identified as the best long-term solution to improve the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Pasture legumes require adequate P to grow well and fix large amounts of N to increase the productivity of rundown sown grass pastures. Producers and farm advisors have traditionally thought that P fertiliser is not cost-effective for legume-based improved pastures growing on inland areas of Queensland despite there being little, if any, data on production responses or their economic outcomes. Recent studies show large and increasing areas of low plant available soil P and large responses by pasture legumes to P fertiliser on Brigalow soils. The economic analysis in this scoping study indicates potential returns of 9–15% on extra funds invested from the application of P fertiliser, when establishing legumes into grass pastures on low P soils (i.e. lower than the critical P requirement of the legume grown). Higher returns of 12–24% may be possible when adding P fertiliser to already established grass/legume pastures on such soils. As these results suggest potential for significant returns from applying P fertiliser on legume pastures, it is recommended that research be conducted to better quantify the impacts of P fertiliser on productivity and profit. Research priorities include: quantifying the animal production and economic impact of fertilising legume-based pastures in the sub-tropics for currently used legumes; quantifying the comparative P requirements and responses of available legume varieties; understanding clay soil responses to applied P fertiliser; testing the P status of herds grazing in the Brigalow Belt; and quantifying the extent of other nutrient deficiencies (e.g. sulphur and potassium) for legume based pastures. Development and extension activities are required to demonstrate the commercial impacts of applying P fertiliser to legume based pastures.