Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Short- and long-term movement patterns in the freshwater whipray (Himantura dalyensis) determined by the signal processing of passive acoustic telemetry data.

Patterns of movement in aquatic animals reflect ecologically important behaviours. Cyclical changes in the abiotic environment influence these movements, but when multiple processes occur simultaneously, identifying which is responsible for the observed movement can be complex. Here we used acoustic telemetry and signal processing to define the abiotic processes responsible for movement patterns in freshwater whiprays (Himantura dalyensis). Acoustic transmitters were implanted into the whiprays and their movements detected over 12 months by an array of passive acoustic receivers, deployed throughout 64 km of the Wenlock River, Qld, Australia. The time of an individual's arrival and departure from each receiver detection field was used to estimate whipray location continuously throughout the study. This created a linear-movement-waveform for each whipray and signal processing revealed periodic components within the waveform. Correlation of movement periodograms with those from abiotic processes categorically illustrated that the diel cycle dominated the pattern of whipray movement during the wet season, whereas tidal and lunar cycles dominated during the dry season. The study methodology represents a valuable tool for objectively defining the relationship between abiotic processes and the movement patterns of free-ranging aquatic animals and is particularly expedient when periods of no detection exist within the animal location data.