2 resultados para STL-Modelle

em eResearch Archive - Queensland Department of Agriculture


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Paropsine chrysomelid beetles are significant defoliators of Australian eucalypts. In Queensland, the relatively recent expansion of hardwood plantations has resulted in the emergence of new pest species. Here I identify paropsine beetles collected from Eucalyptus cloeziana Muell. and E. dunnii Maiden, two of the major Eucalyptus species grown in plantations in south-eastern Queensland, and estimate the relative abundance of each paropsine species. Although I was unable to identify all taxa to species level, at least 17 paropsine species were collected, about one-third of which have not been previously associated with hardwood plantations. Paropsis atomaria Olivier and P. charybdis Stål were the most abundant species collected in E. cloeziana plantations, while Chrysophtharta cloelia (Stål) and P. atomaria were most commonly collected from E. dunnii. Occasional collections from Corymbia citriodora (Hook.) Hill and Johns, ssp. variegata revealed an additional four species implicated in plantation damage. Abundance and voltinism varied between species and sites. I predict which paropsine species are likely to threaten plantation productivity.

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Understanding the effects of different types and quality of data on bioclimatic modeling predictions is vital to ascertaining the value of existing models, and to improving future models. Bioclimatic models were constructed using the CLIMEX program, using different data types – seasonal dynamics, geographic (overseas) distribution, and a combination of the two – for two biological control agents for the major weed Lantana camara L. in Australia. The models for one agent, Teleonemia scrupulosa Stål (Hemiptera:Tingidae) were based on a higher quality and quantity of data than the models for the other agent, Octotoma scabripennis Guérin-Méneville (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). Predictions of the geographic distribution for Australia showed that T. scrupulosa models exhibited greater accuracy with a progressive improvement from seasonal dynamics data, to the model based on overseas distribution, and finally the model combining the two data types. In contrast, O. scabripennis models were of low accuracy, and showed no clear trends across the various model types. These case studies demonstrate the importance of high quality data for developing models, and of supplementing distributional data with species seasonal dynamics data wherever possible. Seasonal dynamics data allows the modeller to focus on the species response to climatic trends, while distributional data enables easier fitting of stress parameters by restricting the species envelope to the described distribution. It is apparent that CLIMEX models based on low quality seasonal dynamics data, together with a small quantity of distributional data, are of minimal value in predicting the spatial extent of species distribution.