Probabilistic forecasts of the onset of the north Australian wet season

The amount and timing of early wet-season rainfall are important for the management of many agricultural industries in north Australia. With this in mind, a wet-season onset date is defined based on the accumulation of rainfall to a predefined threshold, starting from 1 September, for each square of a 1° gridded analysis of daily rainfall across the region. Consistent with earlier studies, the interannual variability of the onset dates is shown to be well related to the immediately preceding July-August Southern Oscillation index (SOI). Based on this relationship, a forecast method using logistic regression is developed to predict the probability that onset will occur later than the climatological mean date. This method is expanded to also predict the probabilities that onset will be later than any of a range of threshold dates around the climatological mean. When assessed using cross-validated hindcasts, the skill of the predictions exceeds that of climatological forecasts in the majority of locations in north Australia, especially in the Top End region, Cape York, and central Queensland. At times of strong anomalies in the July-August SOI, the forecasts are reliably emphatic. Furthermore, predictions using tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) as the predictor are also tested. While short-lead (July-August predictor) forecasts are more skillful using the SOI, long-lead (May-June predictor) forecasts are more skillful using Pacific SSTs, indicative of the longer-term memory present in the ocean.

Effects of silicon treatment and inoculation with Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum on cellular defences in root tissues of two cotton cultivars

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Silicon has been shown to enhance the resistance of plants to fungal and bacterial pathogens. Here, the effect of potassium silicate was assessed on two cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) cultivars subsequently inoculated with Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. vasinfectum (Fov). Sicot 189 is moderately resistant whilst Sicot F-1 is the second most resistant commercial cultivar presently available in Australia. METHODS: Transmission and light microscopy were used to compare cellular modifications in root cells after these different treatments. The accumulation of phenolic compounds and lignin was measured. KEY RESULTS: Cellular alterations including the deposition of electron-dense material, degradation of fungal hyphae and occlusion of endodermal cells were more rapidly induced and more intense in endodermal and vascular regions of Sicot F-1 plants supplied with potassium silicate followed by inoculation with Fov than in similarly treated Sicot 189 plants or in silicate-treated plants of either cultivar not inoculated with Fov. Significantly more phenolic compounds were present at 7 d post-infection (dpi) in root extracts of Sicot F-1 plants treated with potassium silicate followed by inoculation with Fov compared with plants from all other treatments. The lignin concentration at 3 dpi in root material from Sicot F-1 treated with potassium silicate and inoculated with Fov was significantly higher than that from water-treated and inoculated plants. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that silicon treatment can affect cellular defence responses in cotton roots subsequently inoculated with Fov, particularly in Sicot F-1, a cultivar with greater inherent resistance to this pathogen. This suggests that silicon may interact with or initiate defence pathways faster in this cultivar than in the less resistant cultivar.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

A promising and simple method to quantify soil/manure mixing on beef feedlot pens

On beef cattle feed pen surfaces, fresh and decayed manure is mixed with base rock or soil (base). Quantifying this mixing has beneficial applications for aspects including nutrient and greenhouse gas budgeting. However, no practical methods exist to quantify mixing. We investigated if measuring element concentrations in: (A) fresh manure, (B) base material, and (C) pen manure offers a promising method to quantify manure/base mixing on pen surfaces. Using three operational beef feedlots as study sites, we targeted carbon (C), and silicon (Si), which are the two most abundant and easily measurable organic and inorganic elements. Our results revealed that C concentrations were strongly (>15 times) and significantly (P < 0.05) higher whereas Si concentrations strongly (>10 times) and significantly (P < 0.01) lower in fresh manure than base material at all three sites. These relative concentrations were not significantly impacted by manure decay, as determined by an 18-week incubation experiment. This suggested that both of these elements are suitable markers for quantifying base/manure mixing on pens. However, due to the chemical change of manure during decay, C was shown to be an imprecise marker of base/manure mixing. By contrast, using Si to estimate base/manure mixing was largely unaffected by manure decay. These findings were confirmed by measuring C and Si concentrations in stockpiled pen surface manure from one of the sites. Using Si concentrations is a promising approach to quantify base/manure mixing on feed pens given that this element is abundantly concentrated in soils and rocks.