Assessing the relationship between shire winter crop yield and seasonal variability of the MODIS NDVI and EVI images

Australian researchers have been developing robust yield estimation models, based mainly on the crop growth response to water availability during the crop season. However, knowledge of spatial distribution of yields within and across the production regions can be improved by the use of remote sensing techniques. Images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, available since 1999, have the potential to contribute to crop yield estimation. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between winter crop yields and the spectral information available in MODIS vegetation index images at the shire level. The study was carried out in the Jondaryan and Pittsworth shires, Queensland , Australia . Five years (2000 to 2004) of 250m resolution, 16-day composite of MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) images were used during the winter crop season (April to November). Seasonal variability of the profiles of the vegetation index images for each crop season using different regions of interest (cropping mask) were displayed and analysed. Correlation analysis between wheat and barley yield data and MODIS image values were also conducted. The results showed high seasonal variability in the NDVI and EVI profiles, and the EVI values were consistently lower than those of the NDVI. The highest image values were observed in 2003 (in contrast to 2004), and were associated with rainfall amount and distribution. The seasonal variability of the profiles was similar in both shires, with minimum values in June and maximum values at the end of August. NDVI and EVI images showed sensitivity to seasonal variability of the vegetation and exhibited good association (e.g. r = 0.84, r = 0.77) with winter crop yields.

Effects of seasonal variability on FT-NIR prediction of dry matter content for whole Hass avocado fruit

Fourier Transform (FT)-near infra-red spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated as a non-invasive technique for estimating percentage (%) dry matter of whole intact 'Hass' avocado fruit. Partial least squares (PLS) calibration models were developed from the diffuse reflectance spectra to predict % dry matter, taking into account effects of seasonal variation. It is found that seasonal variability has a significant effect on model predictive performance for dry matter in avocados. The robustness of the calibration model, which in general limits the application for the technique, was found to increase across years (seasons) when more seasonal variability was included in the calibration set. The R-v(2) and RMSEP for the single season prediction models predicting on an independent season ranged from 0.09 to 0.61 and 2.63 to 5.00, respectively, while for the two season models predicting on the third independent season, they ranged from 0.34 to 0.79 and 2.18 to 2.50, respectively. The bias for single season models predicting an independent season was as high as 4.429 but <= 1.417 for the two season combined models. The calibration model encompassing fruit from three consecutive years yielded predictive statistics of R-v(2) = 0.89, RMSEP = 1.43% dry matter with a bias of -0.021 in the range 16.1-39.7% dry matter for the validation population encompassing independent fruit from the three consecutive years. Relevant spectral information for all calibration models was obtained primarily from oil, carbohydrate and water absorbance bands clustered in the 890-980, 1005-1050, 1330-1380 and 1700-1790 nm regions. These results indicate the potential of FT-NIRS, in diffuse reflectance mode, to non-invasively predict the % dry matter of whole 'Hass' avocado fruit and the importance of the development of a calibration model that incorporates seasonal variation. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ACIAR Feasibility of farmers managing climate related crop production risk in India

Validation of new Indian seasonal climate forecasting products. In the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh (AP) kharif crops are heavily dependent on summer monsoon rains, where the timing and intensity of the rains affects crop yield. The majority of farms in AP are small and marginal, making them very vulnerable to yield reductions. Farmers also lack access to relevant information that might enable them to respond to seasonal conditions. Enabling farmers to utilise seasonal climate forecasting would allow them to respond to seasonal variability. To do this, farmers need a forecasting system that indicates a specific management strategy for the upcoming season, and effective and timely communication of the forecast information. Current agro-meteorological advisories in AP are issued on a bi-weekly basis, and they are relevant to an agro-climatic zone scale which may not be sufficiently relevant at a village level. Also, the information in the advisories may not be necessarily packaged in way relevant to cropping decisions by farmers. The objectives of this project are to evaluate the skill of seasonal climate forecasts to be issued for the 2008 monsoon season, to assess crop management options in response to seasonal scenarios that capture the range of seasonal climatic variability, to develop and evaluate options for effective communication and adoption of climate forecasts and agricultural advisories, and to synthesise and report on options for future research investments into seasonal climate forecasting.

Temporal Variation in Physiological Biomarkers in Black Flying-Foxes (Pteropus alecto), Australia

Bats of the genus Pteropus (Pteropodidae) are recognised as the natural host of multiple emerging pathogenic viruses of animal and human health significance, including henipaviruses, lyssaviruses and ebolaviruses. Some studies have suggested that physiological and ecological factors may be associated with Hendra virus infection in flying-foxes in Australia; however, it is essential to understand the normal range and seasonal variability of physiological biomarkers before seeking physiological associations with infection status. We aimed to measure a suite of physiological biomarkers in P. alecto over time to identify any seasonal fluctuations and to examine possible associations with life-cycle and environmental stressors. We sampled 839 adult P. alecto in the Australian state of Queensland over a 12-month period. The adjusted population means of every assessed hematologic and biochemical parameter were within the reported reference range on every sampling occasion. However, within this range, we identified significant temporal variation in these parameters, in urinary parameters and body condition, which primarily reflected the normal annual life cycle. We found no evident effect of remarkable physiological demands or nutritional stress, and no indication of clinical disease driving any parameter values outside the normal species reference range. Our findings identify underlying temporal physiological changes at the population level that inform epidemiological studies and assessment of putative physiological risk factors driving Hendra virus infection in P. alecto. More broadly, the findings add to the knowledge of Pteropus populations in terms of their relative resistance and resilience to emerging infectious disease.

Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Managing for rainfall variability: effect of grazing strategy on cattle production in a dry tropical savanna

Rainfall variability is a challenge to sustainable and pro. table cattle production in northern Australia. Strategies recommended to manage for rainfall variability, like light or variable stocking, are not widely adopted. This is due partly to the perception that sustainability and profitability are incompatible. A large, long-term grazing trial was initiated in 1997 in north Queensland, Australia, to test the effect of different grazing strategies on cattle production. These strategies are: (i) constant light stocking (LSR) at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC); (ii) constant heavy stocking (HSR) at twice LTCC; (iii) rotational wet-season spelling (R/Spell) at 1.5 LTCC; (iv) variable stocking (VAR), with stocking rates adjusted in May based on available pasture; and (v) a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variable strategy, with stocking rates adjusted in November, based on available pasture and SOI seasonal forecasts. Animal performance varied markedly over the 10 years for which data is presented, due to pronounced differences in rainfall and pasture availability. Nonetheless, lighter stocking at or about LTCC consistently gave the best individual liveweight gain (LWG), condition score and skeletal growth; mean LWG per annum was thus highest in the LSR (113 kg), intermediate in the R/Spell (104 kg) and lowest in the HSR(86 kg). MeanLWGwas 106 kg in the VAR and 103 kg in the SOI but, in all years, the relative performance of these strategies was dependent upon the stocking rate applied. After 2 years on the trial, steers from lightly stocked strategies were 60-100 kg heavier and received appreciable carcass price premiums at the meatworks compared to those under heavy stocking. In contrast, LWG per unit area was greatest at stocking rates of about twice LTCC; mean LWG/ha was thus greatest in the HSR (21 kg/ha), but this strategy required drought feeding in four of the 10 years and was unsustainable. Although LWG/ha was lower in the LSR (mean 14 kg/ha), or in strategies that reduced stocking rates in dry years like the VAR(mean 18 kg/ha) and SOI (mean 17 kg/ha), these strategies did not require drought feeding and appeared sustainable. The R/Spell strategy (mean 16 kg/ha) was compromised by an ill-timed fire, but also performed satisfactorily. The present results provide important evidence challenging the assumption that sustainable management in a variable environment is unprofitable. Further research is required to fully quantify the long-term effects of these strategies on land condition and profitability and to extrapolate the results to breeder performance at the property level.

Variability in the growth, feeding and condition of barramundi (Lates calcarifer Bloch) in a northern Australian coastal river and impoundment

Lates calcarifer supports important fisheries throughout tropical Australia. Community-driven fish stocking has resulted in the creation of impoundment fisheries and supplemental stocking of selected wild riverine populations. Using predominantly tag-recapture methods, condition assessment and stomach flushing techniques, this study compared the growth of stocked and wild L. calcarifer in a tropical Australian river (Johnstone River) and stocked fish in a nearby impoundment (Lake Tinaroo). Growth of L. calcarifer in the Johnstone River appeared resource-limited, with juvenile fish in its lower freshwater reaches feeding mainly on small aytid shrimp and limited quantities of fish. Growth was probably greatest in estuarine and coastal areas than in the lower freshwater river. Fish in Lake Tinaroo, where prey availability was greater, grew faster than either wild or stocked fish in the lower freshwater areas of the Johnstone River. Growth of L. calcarifer was highly seasonal with marked declines in the cooler months. This was reflected in both stomach fullness and the percentage of fish with empty stomachs but the condition of L. calcarifer was similar across most sites. In areas where food resources appear stretched, adverse effects on resident L. calcarifer populations and their attendant prey species should be minimised through cessation of, or more conservative, stocking practices.

Influence of climate variability and stocking strategies on greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), production and profit of a northern Queensland beef cattle herd

Previous studies of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) from beef production systems in northern Australia have been based on models of ‘steady-state’ herd structures that do not take into account the considerable inter-annual variation in liveweight gain, reproduction and mortality rates that occurs due to seasonal conditions. Nor do they consider the implications of flexible stocking strategies designed to adapt these production systems to the highly variable climate. The aim of the present study was to quantify the variation in total GHGE (t CO2e) and GHGE intensity (t CO2e/t liveweight sold) for the beef industry in northern Australia when variability in these factors was considered. A combined GRASP–Enterprise modelling platform was used to simulate a breeding–finishing beef cattle property in the Burdekin River region of northern Queensland, using historical climate data from 1982–2011. GHGE was calculated using the method of Australian National Greenhouse Gas Inventory. Five different stocking-rate strategies were simulated with fixed stocking strategies at moderate and high rates, and three flexible stocking strategies where the stocking rate was adjusted annually by up to 5%, 10% or 20%, according to pasture available at the end of the growing season. Variation in total annual GHGE was lowest in the ‘fixed moderate’ (~9.5 ha/adult equivalent (AE)) stocking strategy, ranging from 3799 to 4471 t CO2e, and highest in the ‘fixed high’ strategy (~5.9 ha/AE), which ranged from 3771 to 7636 t CO2e. The ‘fixed moderate’ strategy had the least variation in GHGE intensity (15.7–19.4 t CO2e/t liveweight sold), while the ‘flexible 20’ strategy (up to 20% annual change in AE) had the largest range (10.5–40.8 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). Across the five stocking strategies, the ‘fixed moderate’ stocking-rate strategy had the highest simulated perennial grass percentage and pasture growth, highest average rate of liveweight gain (121 kg/steer), highest average branding percentage (74%) and lowest average breeding-cow mortality rate (3.9%), resulting in the lowest average GHGE intensity (16.9 t CO2e/t liveweight sold). The ‘fixed high’ stocking rate strategy (~5.9 ha/AE) performed the poorest in each of these measures, while the three flexible stocking strategies were intermediate. The ‘fixed moderate’ stocking strategy also yielded the highest average gross margin per AE carried and per hectare. These results highlight the importance of considering the influence of climate variability on stocking-rate management strategies and herd performance when estimating GHGE. The results also support a body of previous work that has recommended the adoption of moderate stocking strategies to enhance the profitability and ecological stability of beef production systems in northern Australia.

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference.

Variability in Voluntary Intake of a Molasses-based Supplement by Cows and Calves

Supplements are often fed to ruminants in extensive grazing situations to provide minerals and nitrogen likely to be deficient in pasture. However a large proportion of animals offered such supplements may not consume any supplement, while among consumer animals the variability in supplement intake may be high (Wheeler et al., 1980; Dixon et al., 1998). An experiment examined the distribution of intake of a molasses-based supplement containing phosphorus and urea in a breeder herd. A herd of mixed-age breeder cows, calves, heifers and bulls were offered ad libitum a molasses-based supplement containing 13% urea and 17% phosphoric acid. After 2 weeks lithium-labelled supplement (2 mg Li/kg LW) was offered on one day to measure individual intakes of supplement. The molasses was offered in three 560 mm diameter feeders placed together near the water point.

Variability in Voluntary Intake of Loose Mineral Mix Supplements by Grazing Heifers

Loose mineral mix (LMM) supplements are often fed to ruminants in extensive grazing situations to provide minerals and nitrogen likely to be deficient in pasture. However a large proportion of animals offered such supplements may not consume any supplement, while among consumer animals the variability in supplement intake may be high (Wheeler et al., 1980; Dixon et al., 1996). Two experiments examined the distribution of intake of LMM supplements offered to heifers grazing in mob and paddock sizes representative of commercial cattle properties.

Nucleocapsid gene variability reveals two subgroups of Lettuce necrotic yellows virus

The complete nucleocapsid (N) genes of eight Australian isolates of Lettuce necrotic yellows virus (LNYV) were amplified by reverse transcription PCR, cloned and sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses of these sequences revealed two distinct subgroups of LNYV isolates. Nucleotide sequences within each subgroup were more than 96% identical but heterogeneity between groups was about 20% at the nucleotide sequence level. However, less than 4% heterogeneity was noted at the amino acid level, indicating mostly third nucleotide position changes and a strong conservation for N protein function. There was no obvious geographical or temporal separation of the subgroups in Australia.

Genetic variability of Tomato spotted wilt virus in Australia and validation of real time RT-PCR for its detection in single and bulked leaf samples

The potential for large-scale use of a sensitive real time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assay was evaluated for the detection of Tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in single and bulked leaf samples by comparing its sensitivity with that of DAS-ELISA. Using total RNA extracted with RNeasy® or leaf soak methods, real time RT-PCR detected TSWV in all infected samples collected from 16 horticultural crop species (including flowers, herbs and vegetables), two arable crop species, and four weed species by both assays. In samples in which DAS-ELISA had previously detected TSWV, real time RT-PCR was effective at detecting it in leaf tissues of all 22 plant species tested at a wide range of concentrations. Bulk samples required more robust and extensive extraction methods with real time RT-PCR, but it generally detected one infected sample in 1000 uninfected ones. By contrast, ELISA was less sensitive when used to test bulked samples, once detecting up to 1 infected in 800 samples with pepper but never detecting more than 1 infected in 200 samples in tomato and lettuce. It was also less reliable than real time RT-PCR when used to test samples from parts of the leaf where the virus concentration was low. The genetic variability among Australian isolates of TSWV was small. Direct sequencing of a 587 bp region of the nucleoprotein gene (S RNA) of 29 isolates from diverse crops and geographical locations yielded a maximum of only 4.3% nucleotide sequence difference. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no obvious groupings of isolates according to geographic origin or host species. TSWV isolates, that break TSWV resistance genes in tomato or pepper did not differ significantly in the N gene region studied, indicating that a different region of the virus genome is responsible for this trait.

Seasonal effects of foliar application of phosphonate on phosphonate translocation, in vitro pollen viability and pollen germination in `Hass' avocado (Persea americana Mill.)

Phosphonate fungicides are used widely in the control of diseases caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi Rands. For the most part phosphonate is seen as a safe to use on crops with phytotoxicity rare. However, recent research has shown that phosphonate has detrimental effects on the floral biology of some indigenous Australian plants. Since phosphonate fungicides are regularly used for the control of Phytophthora root rot in avocados, research was carried out to study the translocation of phosphonate fungicide in 'Hass' trees and any effects on their floral biology. Field-grown trees were sprayed with 0, 0.06 or 0.12 M mono-dipotassium phosphonate (pH 7.2) at summer flush maturity, floral bud break or anthesis. Following treatment, phosphonic acid concentrations were determined in leaves, roots, inflorescence rachi and flowers and in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube growth studied. Phosphonic acid concentration in the roots and floral parts was related to their sink strength at the respective times of application with concentration in roots highest (36.9.mg g±1) after treatment at summer flush maturity and in flowers (234.7 mg g±1) after treatment during early anthesis. Phosphonate at >0.03 M was found to be significantly phytotoxic to in vitro pollen germination and pollen tube growth. However, this rate gave a concentration far in excess of that measured in plant tissues following standard commercial applications of mono-dipotassium phosphonate fungicide. There was a small effect on pollen germination and pollen tube growth when 0.06 and 0.12 M mono-dipotassium phosphonate was applied during early anthesis. However, under favourable pollination and fruit set conditions it is not expected to have commercial impact on tree yield. However, there may be detrimental commercial implications from phosphonate sprays at early anthesis if unfavourable climatic conditions for pollination and fruit set subsequently occur. A commercial implication from this study is that phosphonic acid root concentrations can be elevated and maintained with strategic foliar applications of phosphonate fungicide timed to coincide with peaks in root sink strength. These occur at the end of the spring and summer flushes when shoot growth is relatively quiescent. Additional foliar applications may be advantageous in under high disease-pressure situations but where possible should be timed to minimize overlap with other significant growth events in the tree such as rapid inflorescence, and fruit development and major vegetative flushing.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.