Risk management strategies using seasonal climate forecasting in irrigated cotton production: a tale of stochastic dominance.

Decision-making in agriculture is carried out in an uncertain environment with farmers often seeking information to reduce risk. As a result of the extreme variability of rainfall and stream-flows in north-eastern Australia, water supplies for irrigated agriculture are a limiting factor and a source of risk. The present study examined the use of seasonal climate forecasting (SCF) when calculating planting areas for irrigated cotton in the northern Murray Darling Basin. Results show that minimising risk by adjusting plant areas in response to SCF can lead to significant gains in gross margin returns. However, how farmers respond to SCF is dependent on several other factors including irrigators’ attitude towards risk.

Runoff, sediment loss and water quality from forest roads in a southeast Queensland coastal plain Pinus plantation

Runoff and sediment loss from forest roads were monitored for a two-year period in a Pinus plantation in southeast Queensland. Two classes of road were investigated: a gravelled road, which is used as a primary daily haulage route for the logging area, and an ungravelled road, which provides the main access route for individual logging compartments and is intensively used as a haulage route only during the harvest of these areas (approximately every 30 years). Both roads were subjected to routine traffic loads and maintenance during the study. Surface runoff in response to natural rainfall was measured and samples taken for the determination of sediment and nutrient (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and total iron) loads from each road. Results revealed that the mean runoff coefficient (runoff depth/rainfall depth) was consistently higher from the gravelled road plot with 0.57, as compared to the ungravelled road with 0.38. Total sediment loss over the two-year period was greatest from the gravelled road plot at 5.7 t km−1 compared to the ungravelled road plot with 3.9 t km−1. Suspended solids contributed 86% of the total sediment loss from the gravelled road, and 72% from the ungravelled road over the two years. Nitrogen loads from the two roads were both relatively constant throughout the study, and averaged 5.2 and 2.9 kg km−1 from the gravelled and ungravelled road, respectively. Mean annual phosphorus loads were 0.6 kg km−1 from the gravelled road and 0.2 kg km−1 from the ungravelled road. Organic carbon and total iron loads increased in the second year of the study, which was a much wetter year, and are thought to reflect the breakdown of organic matter in roadside drains and increased sediment generation, respectively. When road and drain maintenance (grading) was performed runoff and sediment loss were increased from both road types. Additionally, the breakdown of the gravel road base due to high traffic intensity during wet conditions resulted in the formation of deep (10 cm) ruts which increased erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP):Road model was used to compare predicted to observed runoff and sediment loss from the two road classes investigated. For individual rainfall events, WEPP:Road predicted output showed strong agreement with observed values of runoff and sediment loss. WEPP:Road predictions for annual sediment loss from the entire forestry road network in the study area also showed reasonable agreement with the extrapolated observed values.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Atrazine degradation and transport in runoff on a Black Vertosol

In Australia communities are concerned about atrazine being detected in drinking water supplies. It is important to understand mechanisms by which atrazine is transported from paddocks to waterways if we are to reduce movement of agricultural chemicals from the site of application. Two paddocks cropped with grain sorghum on a Black Vertosol were monitored for atrazine, potassium chloride (KCl) extractable atrazine, desethylatrazine (DEA), and desisopropylatrazine (DIA) at 4 soil depths (0-0.05, 0.05-0.10, 0.10-0.20, and 0.20-0.30 m) and in runoff water and runoff sediment. Atrazine + DEA + DIA (total atrazine) had a half-life in soil of 16-20 days, more rapid dissipation than in many earlier reports. Atrazine extracted in dilute potassium chloride, considered available for weed control, was initially 34% of the total and had a half-life of 15-20 days until day 30, after which it dissipated rapidly with a half life of 6 days. We conclude that, in this region, atrazine may not pose a risk for groundwater contamination, as only 0.5% of applied atrazine moved deeper than 0.20 m into the soil, where it dissipated rapidly. In runoff (including suspended sediment) atrazine concentrations were greatest during the first runoff event (57 days after application) (85 μg/L) and declined with time. After 160 days, the total atrazine lost in runoff was 0.4% of the initial application. The total atrazine concentration in runoff was strongly related to the total concentration in soil, as expected. Even after 98% of the KCl-extractable atrazine had dissipated (and no longer provided weed control), runoff concentrations still exceeded the human health guideline value of 40 μg/L. For total atrazine in soil (0-0.05 m), the range for coefficient of soil sorption (Kd) was 1.9-28.4 mL/g and for soil organic carbon sorption (KOC) was 100-2184 mL/g, increasing with time of contact with the soil and rapid dissipation of the more soluble, available phase. Partition coefficients in runoff for total atrazine were initially 3, increasing to 32 and 51 with time, values for DEA being half these. To minimise atrazine losses, cultural practices that maximise rain infiltration, and thereby minimise runoff, and minimise concentrations in the soil surface should be adopted.

Losses of nitrogen in surface runoff from a plantation horticulture farm in coastal Queensland, Australia.

Surface losses of nitrogen from horticulture farms in coastal Queensland, Australia, may have the potential to eutrophy sensitive coastal marine habitats nearby. A case-study of the potential extent of such losses was investigated in a coastal macadamia plantation. Nitrogen losses were quantified in 5 consecutive runoff events during the 13-month study. Irrigation did not contribute to surface flows. Runoff was generated by storms at combined intensities and durations that were 20–40 mm/h for >9 min. These intensities and durations were within expected short-term (1 year) and long-term (up to 20 years) frequencies of rainfall in the study area. Surface flow volumes were 5.3 ± 1.1% of the episodic rainfall generated by such storms. Therefore, the largest part of each rainfall event was attributed to infiltration and drainage in this farm soil (Kandosol). The estimated annual loss of total nitrogen in runoff was 0.26 kg N/ha.year, representing a minimal loading of nitrogen in surface runoff when compared to other studies. The weighted average concentrations of total sediment nitrogen (TSN) and total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) generated in the farm runoff were 2.81 ± 0.77% N and 1.11 ± 0.27 mg N/L, respectively. These concentrations were considerably greater than ambient levels in an adjoining catchment waterway. Concentrations of TSN and TDN in the waterway were 0.11 ± 0.02% N and 0.50 ± 0.09 mg N/L, respectively. The steep concentration gradient of TSN and TDN between the farm runoff and the waterway demonstrated the occurrence of nutrient loading from the farming landscapes to the waterway. The TDN levels in the stream exceeded the current specified threshold of 0.2–0.3 mg N/L for eutrophication of such a waterway. Therefore, while the estimate of annual loading of N from runoff losses was comparatively low, it was evident that the stream catchment and associated agricultural land uses were already characterised by significant nitrogen loadings that pose eutrophication risks. The reported levels of nitrogen and the proximity of such waterways (8 km) to the coastline may have also have implications for the nearshore (oligotrophic) marine environment during periods of turbulent flow.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient transport from cropping systems on Red Ferrosols in tropical northern Australia.

Runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss were assessed on a Red Ferrosol in tropical Australia over 3 years. The experiment was conducted using bounded, 100-m(2) field plots cropped to peanuts, maize, or grass. A bare plot, without cover or crop, was also instigated as an extreme treatment. Results showed the importance of cover in reducing runoff, soil loss, and nutrient loss from these soils. Runoff ranged from 13% of incident rainfall for the conventional cultivation to 29% under bare conditions during the highest rainfall year, and was well correlated with event rainfall and rainfall energy. Soil loss ranged from 30 t/ha. year under bare conditions to <6 t/ha. year under cropping. Nutrient losses of 35 kg N and 35 kg P/ha. year under bare conditions and 17 kg N and 11 kg P/ha. year under cropping were measured. Soil carbon analyses showed a relationship with treatment runoff, suggesting that soil properties influenced the rainfall runoff response. The cropping systems model PERFECT was calibrated using runoff, soil loss, and soil water data. Runoff and soil loss showed good agreement with observed data in the calibration, and soil water and yield had reasonable agreement. Longterm runs using historical weather data showed the episodic nature of runoff and soil loss events in this region and emphasise the need to manage land using protective measures such as conservation cropping practices. Farmers involved in related, action-learning activities wished to incorporate conservation cropping findings into their systems but also needed clear production benefits to hasten practice change.

Better Macadamia crop forecasting

Better Macadamia crop forecasting.

Better Macadamia Crop Forecasting - Part 2

The continually expanding macadamia industry needs an accurate crop forecasting system to allow it to develop effective crop handling and marketing strategies, particularly when the industry faces recurring cycles of unsustainably high and low commodity prices. This project aims to provide the AMS with a robust, reliable predictive model of national crop volume within 10% of the actual crop by 1 April each year by factoring known seasonal, environmental, cultural, climatic, management and biological constraints, together with the existing AMS database which includes data on tree numbers, tree age, variety, location and previous season's production.

Reducing the risk of herbicide runoff in sugarcane farming through controlled traffic and early-banded application

The off-site transport of agricultural chemicals, such as herbicides, into freshwater and marine ecosystems is a world-wide concern. The adoption of farm management practices that minimise herbicide transport in rainfall-runoff is a priority for the Australian sugarcane industry, particularly in the coastal catchments draining into the World Heritage listed Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. In this study, residual herbicide runoff and infiltration were measured using a rainfall simulator in a replicated trial on a brown Chromosol with 90–100% cane trash blanket cover in the Mackay Whitsunday region, Queensland. Management treatments included conventional 1.5 m spaced sugarcane beds with a single row of sugarcane (CONV) and 2 m spaced, controlled traffic sugarcane beds with dual sugarcane rows (0.8 m apart) (2mCT). The aim was to simulate the first rainfall event after the application of the photosynthesis inhibiting (PSII) herbicides ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone, by broadcast (100% coverage, on bed and furrow) and banding (50–60% coverage, on bed only) methods. These events included heavy rainfall 1 day after herbicide application, considered a worst case scenario, or rainfall 21 days after application. The 2mCT rows had significantly (P < 0.05) less runoff (38%) and lower peak runoff rates (43%) than CONV rows for a rainfall average of 93 mm at 100 mm h−1 (1:20 yr Average Return Interval). Additionally, final infiltration rates were higher in 2mCT rows than CONV rows, with 72 and 52 mm h−1 respectively. This resulted in load reductions of 60, 55, 47, and 48% for ametryn, atrazine, diuron and hexazinone from 2mCT rows, respectively. Herbicide losses in runoff were also reduced by 32–42% when applications were banded rather than broadcast. When rainfall was experienced 1 day after application, a large percentage of herbicides were washed off the cane trash. However, by day 21, concentrations of herbicide residues on cane trash were lower and more resistant to washoff, resulting in lower losses in runoff. Consequently, ametryn and atrazine event mean concentrations in runoff were approximately 8 fold lower at day 21 compared with day 1, whilst diuron and hexazinone were only 1.6–1.9 fold lower, suggesting longer persistence of these chemicals. Runoff collected at the end of the paddock in natural rainfall events indicated consistent though smaller treatment differences to the rainfall simulation study. Overall, it was the combination of early application, banding and controlled traffic that was most effective in reducing herbicide losses in runoff. Crown copyright © 2012

Effect of sugarcane cropping systems on herbicide losses in surface runoff

Herbicide runoff from cropping fields has been identified as a threat to the Great Barrier Reef ecosystem. A field investigation was carried out to monitor the changes in runoff water quality resulting from four different sugarcane cropping systems that included different herbicides and contrasting tillage and trash management practices. These include (i) Conventional - Tillage (beds and inter-rows) with residual herbicides used; (ii) Improved - only the beds were tilled (zonal) with reduced residual herbicides used; (iii) Aspirational - minimum tillage (one pass of a single tine ripper before planting) with trash mulch, no residual herbicides and a legume intercrop after cane establishment; and (iv) New Farming System (NFS) - minimum tillage as in Aspirational practice with a grain legume rotation and a combination of residual and knockdown herbicides. Results suggest soil and trash management had a larger effect on the herbicide losses in runoff than the physico-chemical properties of herbicides. Improved practices with 30% lower atrazine application rates than used in conventional systems produced reduced runoff volumes by 40% and atrazine loss by 62%. There were a 2-fold variation in atrazine and >10-fold variation in metribuzin loads in runoff water between reduced tillage systems differing in soil disturbance and surface residue cover from the previous rotation crops, despite the same herbicide application rates. The elevated risk of offsite losses from herbicides was illustrated by the high concentrations of diuron (14mugL-1) recorded in runoff that occurred >2.5months after herbicide application in a 1st ratoon crop. A cropping system employing less persistent non-selective herbicides and an inter-row soybean mulch resulted in no residual herbicide contamination in runoff water, but recorded 12.3% lower yield compared to Conventional practice. These findings reveal a trade-off between achieving good water quality with minimal herbicide contamination and maintaining farm profitability with good weed control.

Statistical forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop

Three types of forecasts of the total Australian production of macadamia nuts (t nut-in-shell) have been produced early each year since 2001. The first is a long-term forecast, based on the expected production from the tree census data held by the Australian Macadamia Society, suitably scaled up for missing data and assumed new plantings each year. These long-term forecasts range out to 10 years in the future, and form a basis for industry and market planning. Secondly, a statistical adjustment (termed the climate-adjusted forecast) is made annually for the coming crop. As the name suggests, climatic influences are the dominant factors in this adjustment process, however, other terms such as bienniality of bearing, prices and orchard aging are also incorporated. Thirdly, industry personnel are surveyed early each year, with their estimates integrated into a growers and pest-scouts forecast. Initially conducted on a 'whole-country' basis, these models are now constructed separately for the six main production regions of Australia, with these being combined for national totals. Ensembles or suites of step-forward regression models using biologically-relevant variables have been the major statistical method adopted, however, developing methodologies such as nearest-neighbour techniques, general additive models and random forests are continually being evaluated in parallel. The overall error rates average 14% for the climate forecasts, and 12% for the growers' forecasts. These compare with 7.8% for USDA almond forecasts (based on extensive early-crop sampling) and 6.8% for coconut forecasts in Sri Lanka. However, our somewhatdisappointing results were mainly due to a series of poor crops attributed to human reasons, which have now been factored into the models. Notably, the 2012 and 2013 forecasts averaged 7.8 and 4.9% errors, respectively. Future models should also show continuing improvement, as more data-years become available.

Toxoplasmosis in Indo-Pacific humpbacked dolphins (Sousa chinensis) from Queensland

Objective: To describe the clinical signs, gross pathology, serology, bacteriology, histopathology, electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry findings associated with toxoplasmosis in four Indo-Pacific humpbacked dolphins (Sousa chinensis) that stranded in Queensland in 2000 and 2001. Design: Clinical assessment, gross necropsy, and laboratory examinations. Procedure: Necropsies were performed on four S chinensis to determine cause of death. Laboratory tests including serology, bacteriology, histopathology and transmission electron microscopy were done on the four dolphins. lmmunohistochemistry was done on the brain, heart, liver, lung, spleen and adrenal gland from various dolphins to detect Toxoplasma gondii antigens. Results: Necropsies showed all of four S chinensis that stranded in Queensland in 2000 and 2001 had evidence of predatory shark attack and three were extremely emaciated. Histopathological examinations showed all four dolphins had toxoplasmosis with tissue cysts resembling T gondii in the brain. Tachyzoite stages of T gondii were detected in the lungs, heart, liver, spleen and adrenal gland, variously of all four dolphins. Electron microscopy studies and immunohistochemistry confirmed the tissues cysts were those of Tgondii. All four dolphins also had intercurrent disease including pneumonia, three had peritonitis and one had pancreatitis. Conclusion: Four S chinensis necropsied in Queensland in 2000 and 2001 were found to be infected with toxoplasmosis. It is uncertain how these dolphins became infected and further studies are needed to determine how S chinensis acquire toxoplasmosis. All four dolphins stranded after periods of heavy rainfall, and coastal freshwater runoff may be a risk factor for T gondii infection in S chinensis. This disease should be of concern to wildlife managers since S chinensis is a rare species and its numbers appear to be declining.

Stretching water - Queensland’s water use efficiency cotton and grains adoption program

The Cotton and Grain Adoption Program of the Queensland Rural Water Use Efficiency Initiative is targeting five major irrigation regions in the state with the objective to develop better irrigation water use efficiency (WUE) through the adoption of best management practices in irrigation. The major beneficiaries of the program will be industries, irrigators and local communities. The benefits will flow via two avenues: increased production and profit resulting from improved WUE and improved environmental health as a consequence of greatly reduced runoff of irrigation tailwater into rivers and streams. This in turn will reduce the risk of nutrient and pesticide contamination of waterways. As a side effect, the work is likely to contribute to an improved public image of the cotton and grain industries. In each of the five regions, WUE officers have established grower groups to assist in providing local input into the specific objectives of extension and demonstration activities. The groups also assist in developing growers' perceptions of ownership of the work. Activities are based around four on-farm demonstration sites in each region where irrigation management techniques and hardware are showcased. A key theme of the program is monitoring water use. This is applied both to on-farm storage and distribution as well as to application methods and in-field management. This paper describes the project, its activities and successes.

Dynamics of plant populations in Heteropogon contortus (black speargrass) pastures on a granite landscape in southern Queensland. 4. The effects of burning on H.contortus and Aristida spp. populations

This paper reports an experiment undertaken to examine the impact of burning in spring together with reduced grazing pressure on the dynamics of H. contortus and Aristida spp. In H. contortus pasture in south-eastern Queensland. The overall results indicate that spring burning in combination with reduced grazing pressure had no marked effect on the density of either grass species. This was attributed to 2 factors. Firstly, extreme drought conditions restricted any increase in H. contortus seedling establishment despite the presence of an adequate soil seed bank prior to summer; and secondly, some differences occurred in the response to fire of the diverse taxonomic groupings in the species of Aristida spp. present at the study site. This study concluded that it is necessary to identify appropriate taxonomic units within the Aristida genus and that, where appropriate, burning in spring to manage pasture composition should be conducted under favorable rainfall conditions using seasonal forecasting indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index

Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry

The Gascoyne-Murchison region of Western Australia experiences an arid to semi-arid climate with a highly variable temporal and spatial rainfall distribution. The region has around 39.2 million hectares available for pastoral lease and supports predominantly catle and sheep grazing leases. In recent years a number of climate forecasting systems have been available offering rainfall probabilities with different lead times and a forecast period; however, the extent to which these systems are capable of fulfilling the requirements of the local pastoralists is still ambiguous. Issues can range from ensuring forecasts are issued with sufficient lead time to enable key planning or decisions to be revoked or altered, to ensuring forecast language is simple and clear, to negate possible misunderstandings in interpretation. A climate research project sought to provide an objective method to determine which available forecasting systems had the greatest forecasting skill at times of the year relevant to local property management. To aid this climate research project, the study reported here was undertaken with an overall objective of exploring local pastoralists' climate information needs. We also explored how well they understand common climate forecast terms such as 'mean', median' and 'probability', and how they interpret and apply forecast information to decisions. A stratified, proportional random sampling was used for the purpose of deriving the representative sample based on rainfall-enterprise combinations. In order to provide more time for decision-making than existing operational forecasts that are issued with zero lead time, pastoralists requested that forecasts be issued for May-July and January-March with lead times counting down from 4 to 0 months. We found forecasts of between 20 and 50 mm break-of-season or follow-up rainfall were likely to influence decisions. Eighty percent of pastoralists demonstrated in a test question that they had a poor technical understanding of how to interpret the standard wording of a probabilistic median rainfall forecast. this is worthy of further research to investigate whether inappropriate management decisions are being made because the forecasts are being misunderstood. We found more than half the respondents regularly access and use weather and climate forecasts or outlook information from a range of sources and almost three-quarters considered climate information or tools useful, with preferred methods for accessing this information by email, faxback service, internet and the Department of Agriculture Western Australia's Pastoral Memo. Despite differences in enterprise types and rainfall seasonality across the region we found seasonal climate forecasting needs were relatively consistent. It became clear that providing basic training and working with pastoralists to help them understand regional climatic drivers, climate terminology and jargon, and the best ways to apply the forecasts to enhance decision-making are important to improve their use of information. Consideration could also be given to engaging a range of producers to write the climate forecasts themselves in the language they use and understand, in consultation with the scientists who prepare the forecasts.