Modelling the manager: Representing rule-based management in farming systems simulation models

We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

Defining and predicting the 'break of the season' for north-east Queensland grazing areas

For pasture growth in the semi-arid tropics of north-east Australia, where up to 80% of annual rainfall occurs between December and March, the timing and distribution of rainfall events is often more important than the total amount. In particular, the timing of the 'green break of the season' (GBOS) at the end of the dry season, when new pasture growth becomes available as forage and a live-weight gain is measured in cattle, affects several important management decisions that prevent overgrazing and pasture degradation. Currently, beef producers in the region use a GBOS rule based on rainfall (e. g. 40mm of rain over three days by 1 December) to define the event and make their management decisions. A survey of 16 beef producers in north-east Queensland shows three quarters of respondents use a rainfall amount that occurs in only half or less than half of all years at their location. In addition, only half the producers expect the GBOS to occur within two weeks of the median date calculated by the CSIRO plant growth days model GRIM. This result suggests that in the producer rules, either the rainfall quantity or the period of time over which the rain is expected, is unrealistic. Despite only 37% of beef producers indicating that they use a southern oscillation index (SOI) forecast in their decisions, cross validated LEPS (linear error in probability space) analyses showed both the average 3 month July-September SOI and the 2 month August-September SOI have significant forecast skill in predicting the probability of both the amount of wet season rainfall and the timing of the GBOS. The communication and implementation of a rigorous and realistic definition of the GBOS, and the likely impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the region are discussed in the context of the sustainable management of northern Australian rangelands.

Bovine cysticercosis-Development of a real-time PCR to enhance classification of suspect cysts identified at meat inspection

Laboratory confirmation methods are important in bovine cysticerosis diagnosis as other pathologies can result in morphologically similar lesions resulting in false identifications. We developed a probe-based real-time PCR assay to identify Taenia saginata in suspect cysts encountered at meat inspection and compared its use with the traditional method of identification, histology, as well as a published nested PCR. The assay simultaneously detects T. saginata DNA and a bovine internal control using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene of each species and shows specificity against parasites causing lesions morphologically similar to those of T. saginata. The assay was sufficiently sensitive to detect 1 fg (Ct 35.09 +/- 0.95) of target DNA using serially-diluted plasmid DNA in reactions spiked with bovine DNA as well as in all viable and caseated positive control cysts. A loss in PCR sensitivity was observed with increasing cyst degeneration as seen in other molecular methods. In comparison to histology, the assay offered greater sensitivity and accuracy with 10/19 (53%) T. saginata positives detected by real-time PCR and none by histology. When the results were compared with the reference PCR, the assay was less sensitive but offered advantages of faster turnaround times and reduced contamination risk. Estimates of the assay's repeatability and reproducibility showed the assay is highly reliable with reliability coefficients greater than 0.94. Crown Copyright (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.