Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess quality of probabilistic forecast systems

Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. In order to be useful for decision-making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and their statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must also provide some quantitative evidence of `quality’. However, the quality of statistical climate forecast systems (forecast quality) is an ill-defined and frequently misunderstood property. Often, providers and users of such forecast systems are unclear about what ‘quality’ entails and how to measure it, leading to confusion and misinformation. Here we present a generic framework to quantify aspects of forecast quality using an inferential approach to calculate nominal significance levels (p-values) that can be obtained either by directly applying non-parametric statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis (KW) or Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) or by using Monte-Carlo methods (in the case of forecast skill scores). Once converted to p-values, these forecast quality measures provide a means to objectively evaluate and compare temporal and spatial patterns of forecast quality across datasets and forecast systems. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of providing p-values rather than adopting some arbitrarily chosen significance levels such as p < 0.05 or p < 0.01, which is still common practice. This is illustrated by applying non-parametric tests (such as KW and KS) and skill scoring methods (LEPS and RPSS) to the 5-phase Southern Oscillation Index classification system using historical rainfall data from Australia, The Republic of South Africa and India. The selection of quality measures is solely based on their common use and does not constitute endorsement. We found that non-parametric statistical tests can be adequate proxies for skill measures such as LEPS or RPSS. The framework can be implemented anywhere, regardless of dataset, forecast system or quality measure. Eventually such inferential evidence should be complimented by descriptive statistical methods in order to fully assist in operational risk management.

Mapping and characterisation of the inter-reefal benthic assemblages of the Torres Strait

A comprehensive survey of the benthic assemblages of the Torres Strait was conducted in order to provide critical baseline information for regional marine planning, assessing the environmental sustainability of fisheries and understanding the ecosystems of the region. Over 150 sites throughout the region were sampled with a modified prawn trawl, towed underwater video, pipe dredge and epibenthic sled. This manuscript provides a broad overview of the activities undertaken and data collected. Two thousand three hundred and seventy-two different nominal species were sampled by the trawl and sled, only 728 by both gears. The towed video was not able to provide the same level of taxonomic resolution of epibenthic taxa, but was particularly useful in areas where the seabed was too rough to be sampled. Data from the trawl, sled and video were combined to characterise the epibenthic assemblages of the region. Data from the towed video was also used to provide a characterisation of the inter-reefal benthic habitats, which was then analysed in combination with physical covariate data to examine relationships between the two. Levels of mud and gravel in the sediments, trawling effort and seabed current stress were the covariates most significantly correlated with the nature of the seabed habitats.

Clinical signs and duration of cyanide toxicosis delivered by the M-44 ejector in wild dogs

Sodium cyanide poison is potentially a more humane method to control wild dogs than sodium fluoroacetate (1080) poison. This study quantified the clinical signs and duration of cyanide toxicosis delivered by the M-44 ejector. The device delivered a nominal 0.88 g of sodium cyanide, which caused the animal to loose the menace reflex in a mean of 43 s, and the animal was assumed to have undergone cerebral hypoxia after the last visible breath. The mean time to cerebral hypoxia was 156 s for a vertical pull and 434 s for a side pull. The difference was possibly because some cyanide may be lost in a side pull. There were three distinct phases of cyanide toxicosis: the initial phase was characterised by head shaking, panting and salivation; the immobilisation phase by incontinence, ataxia and loss of the righting reflex; and the cerebral hypoxia phase by a tetanic seizure. Clinical signs that were exhibited in more than one phase of cyanide toxicosis included retching, agonal breathing, vocalisation, vomiting, altered levels of ocular reflex, leg paddling, tonic muscular spasms, respiratory distress and muscle fasciculations of the muzzle.

Soil carbon stock in the tropical rangelands of Australia: Effects of soil type and grazing pressure, and determination of sampling requirement.

On-going, high-profile public debate about climate change has focussed attention on how to monitor the soil organic carbon stock (C(s)) of rangelands (savannas). Unfortunately, optimal sampling of the rangelands for baseline C(s) - the critical first step towards efficient monitoring - has received relatively little attention to date. Moreover, in the rangelands of tropical Australia relatively little is known about how C(s) is influenced by the practice of cattle grazing. To address these issues we used linear mixed models to: (i) unravel how grazing pressure (over a 12-year period) and soil type have affected C(s) and the stable carbon isotope ratio of soil organic carbon (delta(13)C) (a measure of the relative contributions of C(3) and C(4) vegetation to C(s)); (ii) examine the spatial covariation of C(s) and delta(13)C; and, (iii) explore the amount of soil sampling required to adequately determine baseline C(s). Modelling was done in the context of the material coordinate system for the soil profile, therefore the depths reported, while conventional, are only nominal. Linear mixed models revealed that soil type and grazing pressure interacted to influence C(s) to a depth of 0.3 m in the profile. At a depth of 0.5 m there was no effect of grazing on C(s), but the soil type effect on C(s) was significant. Soil type influenced delta(13)C to a soil depth of 0.5 m but there was no effect of grazing at any depth examined. The linear mixed model also revealed the strong negative correlation of C(s) with delta(13)C, particularly to a depth of 0.1 m in the soil profile. This suggested that increased C(s) at the study site was associated with increased input of C from C(3) trees and shrubs relative to the C(4) perennial grasses; as the latter form the bulk of the cattle diet, we contend that C sequestration may be negatively correlated with forage production. Our baseline C(s) sampling recommendation for cattle-grazing properties of the tropical rangelands of Australia is to: (i) divide the property into units of apparently uniform soil type and grazing management; (ii) use stratified simple random sampling to spread at least 25 soil sampling locations about each unit, with at least two samples collected per stratum. This will be adequate to accurately estimate baseline mean C(s) to within 20% of the true mean, to a nominal depth of 0.3 m in the profile.

Water and thermal regimes for field pea in Australia and their implications for breeding.

There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

What determines soil organic carbon stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia?

This study aimed to unravel the effects of climate, topography, soil, and grazing management on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in the grazing lands of north-eastern Australia. We sampled for SOC stocks at 98 sites from 18 grazing properties across Queensland, Australia. These samples covered four nominal grazing management classes (Continuous, Rotational, Cell, and Exclosure), eight broad soil types, and a strong tropical to subtropical climatic gradient. Temperature and vapour-pressure deficit explained >80% of the variability of SOC stocks at cumulative equivalent mineral masses nominally representing 0-0.1 and 0-0.3m depths. Once detrended of climatic effects, SOC stocks were strongly influenced by total standing dry matter, soil type, and the dominant grass species. At 0-0.3m depth only, there was a weak negative association between stocking rate and climate-detrended SOC stocks, and Cell grazing was associated with smaller SOC stocks than Continuous grazing and Exclosure. In future, collection of quantitative information on stocking intensity, frequency, and duration may help to improve understanding of the effect of grazing management on SOC stocks. Further exploration of the links between grazing management and above- and below-ground biomass, perhaps inferred through remote sensing and/or simulation modelling, may assist large-area mapping of SOC stocks in northern Australia. © CSIRO 2013.

Evaluation of the use of prochloraz in the control of postharvest diseases of papaya in Australia

Prochloraz as Sportak at 450 g a.i./L is registered for the control of postharvest diseases in papaya in Australia. A project in far north Queensland in 2011, examined the use patterns of postharvest treatments, evaluated treatment dips and sprays for prochloraz concentrations and evaluated the efficacy of prochloraz at 0, 20, 40, 55 and 70 ml/100 L, fludioxonil as Scholar at 260 ml/100 L and azoxystrobin as Amistar at 50 ml/100 L. Results showed that packing shed use of Sportak varied with recycled and stored solutions showing a depletion of the active ingredient. Measured prochloraz in solution was highly pH dependent with nominal solution values only being measured when the pH was less than 3.0. In the fungicide efficacy trial Sportak at the label rate of 55 ml/100 L provided more effective disease control than fludioxonil and azoxystrobin. The trial also suggested that fruit from older trees showed a high degree of disease incidence relative to fruit from young trees.

Structural Veneer Based Composite Products from Hardwood Thinning - Part II: Testing of Hollow Utility Poles

Australian utility pole network is aging and reaching its end of life, with 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II. The estimated investment required for the replacement or remedial maintenance of the aging 3.5 millions poles is as high as 1.75 billion dollars. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year, representing further investment of 13.5 million dollars per year. Yet, agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia have been signed, giving the industry about 25 years to make the transition from Crown native forests to plantations and private forests. As utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species, finding solutions to source new poles currently presents a challenge. This paper presents tests on Veneer Based Composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinning. Small diameter poles of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 veneers per halfpole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles cut from mature trees and of similar size. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. © RILEM 2014.

Abundance indices for long-lived tropical snappers: estimating standardized catch rates from spatially and temporally coarse logbook data

The Northern Demersal Scalefish Fishery has historically comprised a small fleet (≤10 vessels year−1) operating over a relatively large area off the northwest coast of Australia. This multispecies fishery primarily harvests two species of snapper: goldband snapper, Pristipomoides multidens and red emperor, Lutjanus sebae. A key input to age-structured assessments of these stocks has been the annual time-series of the catch rate. We used an approach that combined Generalized Linear Models, spatio-temporal imputation, and computer-intensive methods to standardize the fishery catch rates and report uncertainty in the indices. These analyses, which represent one of the first attempts to standardize fish trap catch rates, were also augmented to gain additional insights into the effects of targeting, historical effort creep, and spatio-temporal resolution of catch and effort data on trap fishery dynamics. Results from monthly reported catches (i.e. 1993 on) were compared with those reported daily from more recently (i.e. 2008 on) enhanced catch and effort logbooks. Model effects of catches of one species on the catch rates of another became more conspicuous when the daily data were analysed and produced estimates with greater precision. The rate of putative effort creep estimated for standardized catch rates was much lower than estimated for nominal catch rates. These results therefore demonstrate how important additional insights into fishery and fish population dynamics can be elucidated from such “pre-assessment” analyses.

Veneer based composite hollow utility poles manufactured from hardwood plantation thinned trees

Australia’s utility pole network is aging and approaching its end of life. It is estimated that 70% of the 5 million poles currently in-service nationally were installed within the 20 years following the end of World War II and require replacement or remedial maintenance. Additionally, an estimated 21,700 high-durability new poles are required each year to support the expansion of the energy network. Utility poles were traditionally cut from native forest hardwood species. However, due to agreements which progressively phase out logging of native forests around Australia, finding new sources for utility poles presents a challenge. This paper presents the development of veneer based composite hardwood hollow utility poles manufactured from mid-rotation Gympie messmate (Eucalyptus cloeziana) plantation thinned trees (also referred to as “thinning”), as an alternative to solid hardwood poles. The incentives behind the project and benefits of the proposed products are introduced in the paper. Small diameter poles, of nominal 115 mm internal diameter and 15 mm wall-thickness, were manufactured in two half-poles butt jointed together, using 9 hardwood veneers per half-pole. The poles were tested in bending and shear, and experimental test results are presented. The mechanical performance of the hollow poles is discussed and compared to hardwood poles sourced from mature trees and of similar size. Additionally, the required dimensions of the proposed hollow pole to replace actual solid poles are estimated. Results show that the proposed product represents a viable technical solution to the current shortage of utility poles. Future research and different options for improving the current concept are proposed in order to provide a more reliable and cost effective product for structural and architectural applications in general.

Low-dose methyl bromide fumigation as a quarantine disinfestation treatment for nectarines against Queensland fruit fly (Diptera:Tephritidae)

White nectarines (Prunus persica var. nucipersica) were fumigated with methyl bromide (MB) at a nominal treatment dose of 18 g m-3 at 18°C for 5 h and 30 min as a quarantine disinfestation treatment against Bactrocera tryoni, the Queensland fruit fly. Three large scale trials were conducted against each of the four immature lifestages, eggs and first, second and third instars. There were no survivors from the estimated 43,614 eggs, 41,873 first instars, 41,345 second instars and 33,549 third instars treated, thereby resulting in an efficacy of GROTERDAN99.99% mortality at the 95% confidence level for each lifestage. Of the 12 trials reported herein, the highest concentration of MB, sampled from the chamber headspace analysed by gas chromatography, was 18.7 g m-3. The maximum chamber temperature from 5 min readings was 19.7°C and the maximum fruit core temperature was 19.5°C. The treatment time for all trials was exactly 5.5 h. Thus the recommended treatment dose to disinfest nectarines from B. tryoni is 19.0 g m-3 MB at 20.0°C for 5.5 h. Fruit quality trials were conducted on white nectarines at three combinations of treatment parameters: 15 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.25 h; 18 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.5 h and 21 g m-3 MB at 19°C for 5.5 h. The fruit were stored at 0, 4 and 8 days at 4°C and 8 days at 4°C followed by 4 d at 22°C. They were then were assessed for skin colour, flesh colour, skin defects, flesh defects, fruit weight loss, flesh firmness, total soluble solids, titratable acidity and rots. There was no significant difference between untreated control and MB treated fruits in any of the parameters measured. Thus the treatments did not have adverse effects on fruit quality.